Market in Review 2/29/2024


MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Another record day of BTC ETF inflows
– Bridgewater Dalio calls Mag 7 ‘a bit frothy’
– Cocoa sees biggest monthly gain in 22 years.
– M/E Tensions rise on Israel/Gaza food stampede deaths
– Core PCE prices +0.4% from Jan, sharpest rise in 1yr. Concerns slowing Disinflation.
– Unemployment claims highest in 3 months, points to some labour softening.
– Surprise Chicago PMI fall
– Soft Pending home sales
– Hawkish BoJ commentary
– Mixed EZ inflation figures
– Fed speakers stick to the script
– AI stocks soaring (SoundHoud, AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom)
– Dollar, Gold, Equities up, Treasuries down
– BTC up but dumps in afternoon

Market in Review 2/28/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– BTC Surge to $64k record ETF volumes, then Flash-crash/Coinbase exchange users show 0$ Bal
– Mitch Mconnell will step down as Senate Rep leader in Nov
– PCE deflator, sales, PCE and core PCE revised up
– US Q4 GDP revised lower
– Soft Aussie CPI
– Dovish RBNZ hold
– AAPL CEO Cook says it will “break new ground” in generative AI this year
– Berkshire Hathaway increases cash reserves by $60B last 15mnths to $168B (suggesting recession?)
BA Nears 1 Trill Market Cap
– Dimon says AI is not ‘bubble/hype”
– Treasuries up, Dollar/Gold/Crude flat, Equities off small

Market in Review 23/2/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Dollar finishes down on week. 1st of 2024
– Best week for Bullion in 2024
– NVIDIA reaches 2T in mkt cap.
– Fed: Waller was hawkish, Cook and Williams towed the usual Fed line
– JPM’s Dimon sells 822kk shares (around $150m)
– US unveil 500 more Russian sanctions on 2yr anniversary of war
– Warner Bros Discovery -10%
– Treasury Yields down (long end)
– Overall quiet & unremarkable session

Market in Review 2/21/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– NVIDIA POST RECORD REVENUE +265% ON BOOMING AI BUS POST CLOSE
– FOMC Minutes:
– altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.
– indicated a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation
– officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy while saying that the policy rate is likely at the peak of its cycle
– two policy makers noticed dangers of extended peak, others expressed concerns of premature easing
– Future policy depend on; data, evolving outlook and balance of risks
– Funds were unchanged 5.25/5.5 in Jan, per expectations
– Fed Funds indicate no cut Mar & May 53% likelihood cut in June
– 10yr Treasury yield rose to 4.3% on back of Minutes.
– Gold pares losses=down small, Dollar UNCH, Equities down lead by ND, Crude +1%
– NVDA -3% (Earnings)
– Woeful 20yr bond auction
– Boeing outs head 737 Jetliner program
– Indian farmers clash with police in mass protest
– German govt slashes growth forecast.

Market in review 2/15/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:           
– Retail Sales drops. Exp -0.1% Actual -0.8%
– Initial Jobless, Philly Fed and NYS Manuf stronger
– Industrial Production weaker
– UK GDP weaker Exp -0.1% Actual -0.3%
Japan & UK enter technical recessions
– AAPL readies AI tool to rival MSFT’s Github copilot
– Israel kills Hezbollah leader. Hez vows revenge
– Fed pricing is ultimately little changed after some of the ramped rate cut pricing post-retail sales faded through the session with still under 100bps of cuts implied for 2024 by money markets

Market Report 2/12/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Egypt threatening to void Israel peace agreement with the latter threatening to invade Rafah (likely a hollow threat as Egypt receives billions in US aid which would be jeopardized. Egypt fears a mass ‘Palestinian’ migrant crisis)
– Indonesian, Finnish and South African Elections up for grabs
– US stocks hit record highs (before coming off)
– BTC hits 50k (1st time since Dec 21). Have you been reading my recommends?
– Goldman warns of Tech stock bubble
– NY Fed’s 3yr consumer inflation expectations ease
– Dovish ECB’s Panetta