(This) MARKET REPORT (is unburdened by what has been)
Dublin, to be sure.
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– US existing home sales slumped for the fourth straight month in June
– 5.4% MoM (the worst MoM drop since Nov 2022) and dragging sales down 5.4% YoY
COMPANIES:
– Spotify (SPOT) released earnings per share at 1.33 EUR, compared to market expectations of 1.05 EUR
– General Electric (GE) released earnings per share at 1.20 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.99 USD
– General Motors (GM) released earnings per share at 3.06 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.71 USD
– Coca-Cola (KO) released earnings per share at 0.84 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.80 USD
– Comcast (CMCSA) released earnings per share at 1.21 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.12 USD
– Philip Morris International (PM) released earnings per share at 1.59 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.57 USD
– Lockheed Martin (LMT) released earnings per share at 7.11 USD, compared to market expectations of 6.45 USD
– Alphabet (GOOG) released earnings per share at 1.89 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.83 USD
– Tesla (TSLA) released earnings per share at 0.52 USD, compared to market expectations of 0.61 USD
– Visa (V) released earnings per share at 2.51 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.42 USD
– Capital One Financial (COF) released earnings per share at 3.14 USD, compared to market expectations of 3.42 USD
– Chubb (CB) released earnings per share at 5.38 USD, compared to market expectations of 5.15 USD
GENERAL:
– DEI hire Secret Service Director Cheatle resigns
– AUD hits 5-week LOW
– Oil hits 6-week LOW, Heating Oil 7-week LOW, Natural Gas -3.19%
– Canola 7-month HIGH
– Harris below Biden’s pre-debate levels
– Equities mixed, Treasuries steepen, Crude down, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 104.46 +0.14% (104.21 – 104.53) Off HIGHS
– AUD down: 66.14 -0.43% (66.42 – 66.12) LOWS
– EUR up: 92.13 +0.36% (91.75 – 92.19) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 1.2906 -0.18% (129.33 – 128.90) MID
– JPY down: 155.64 -0.81% (156.73 – 155.58) LOWS
GOLD up: $2407 +0.53% (2389 – 2413) MID
DOW/ES/ND down: 40578 -0.28%, 5598 -0.21%, 19933 -0.35%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN: 65614 -3.58%, 3479 -0.2%
CRUDE down: $77.29 -0.14% (78.71 – 76.40) Off LOWS
Coming Up:
– Australian, Japanese, EZ, UK, US PMIs, German GfK Consumer Sentiment, US Advance Goods Trade Balance, BoC Policy Announcement & MPR
Speakers:
– ECB: de Guindos, Lane
– Fed: Bowman
– BoC: Macklem, Rogers
EARNINGS:
– AT&T, CME, Thermo Fisher, Ford, IBM, Newmont, ServiceNow, General Dynamics
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index was slightly firmer on Tuesday and hit a peak of 104.530, as losses against the Yen were offset by gains elsewhere.
News-flow was once again sparse ahead of the key risk events later in the week in the form of US GDP Advance and PCE.
DOLLAR DX up: 104.46 +0.14% (104.21 – 104.53) Off HIGHS
EUR & GBP:
GBP, and EUR all saw losses vs. the Greenback, albeit not to the same extent of the Antipodes, ahead of European Flash PMIs and BoC on Wednesday. On the latter, the broad consensus is for the central bank to cut by 25bps, but some do expect a hold.
Accompanying the rate decision will be the MPR, Macklem’s opening statement, which will later be followed by Macklem and Rogers’ press conference. In terms of Tuesday, ECB’s de Guindos said data-wise, September is a much more convenient month for taking decisions than July was, and EU flash consumer confidence for July was marginally better than expected.
EUR up: 92.13 +0.36% (91.75 – 92.19) Off HIGHS
GBP down: 1.2906 -0.18% (129.33 – 128.90) MID
AUD
Nothing of note.
AUD down: 66.14 -0.43% (66.42 – 66.12) LOWS
YEN:
JPY was the clear G10 outperformer with USD/JPY hitting a low of 155.59, with support seen at the 18th of July low of 155.36 and the 100DMA at 155.32, although a move below 155 is the next big test for the pair.
Participants await Tokyo CPI on Friday ahead of the BoJ next week
JPY down: 155.64 -0.81% (156.73 – 155.58) LOWS
GOLD/METALS:
Gold snapped its four-day skid on Tuesday to rally above the key $2,400 per ounce level as investors awaited economic reports later in the week that could provide a catalyst for the yellow metal.
Helped along by a slump in 10-year Treasury yields and continued optimism of interest rate cuts, gold hit $2,404 per ounce in midday trading, gaining $8.66. The commodity also got a boost from a report Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, which found that home prices hit record highs last month, causing existing home sales to decline 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million units. The figure was below Wall Street projections of 3.95 million units.
Additionally, the median existing-home sales price increased 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900 – the second straight month it reached an all-time high and the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, according to the NAR data. Mortgage rates at 7% also scared off some homebuyers, the industry group reported.
GOLD up: $2407 +0.53% (2389 – 2413) MID
BONDS:
– Demand for $69BN in 2Y notes (with 5Y and 7Y auctions on deck) was off the charts.
The high yield printed at 4.434%, down 27.2bps from 4.706% last month, the lowest since January, and stopped through the 4.457% When Issued by a whopping 2.3bps, the second highest stop through on record (only March 2023 was higher)
– Treasuries were mixed today with the short-end outperforming
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX -0.2% 5,556
– NDX -0.4% 19,754
– DJIA -0.1% 40,358
– RUT +1% 2, 243
EUROPE:
– DAX 0.77% 18,548
– FTSE -0.38% 8,167
– CAC -0.31% 7,599
– ES50 +0.40% 4,917
Sectors (W to S): Energy -1.55%, Utilities -0.65%, Consumer Staples -0.32%, Communication Services -0.22%, Industrials -0.21%, Real Estate -0.17%, Technology -0.13%, Health flat, Consumer Discretionary flat, Financials flat, Materials +0.38%.
STOCKS:
– Alphabet (+0.14%) – Wiz has walked away from the USD 23bln acquisition deal with Google. Bloomberg reported that advanced talks failed due to a faulty software update from CrowdStrike (CRWD).
OIL:
Crude prices extended losses as CTAs pressed through technical levels but WTI found support at $76.69 intraday (its 200DMA) and bounced modestly
CRUDE down: $77.29 -0.14% (78.71 – 76.40) Off LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.371 +0.001
US 6-MO 5.176 +0.024
US 1-YR 4.876 -0.014
US 5-YR 4.165 -0.013
US 10-YR 4.254 -0.005
US 30-YR 4.487 +0.010
2YR/10YR -0.24
CRYPTO
– Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the day as ETH ETFs were launched.
– A huge net inflow day yesterday into BTC ETF
– ETH ETF $ Volume soared to $1BN
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN: 65614 -3.58%, 3479 -0.2%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Quote of the day:
“Remember that very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all in yourself, in your way of thinking.” – Marcus Aurelius
“There is NOTHING you can buy in a shopping mall you’ll give a FUCK about in 10yrs. Focus on yourself.”
Jimmy Carr
Joke of the Day:
Song of the day:
On this day:
July 23rd: 1988 Guns and Roses release ‘Sweet Child o Mine’
John Dillinger joins the navy to avoid prosecution.
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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