MARKET REPORT
Copenhagen Bourse.
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Housing Starts & Building Permits rise more than expected in June +3.0% MoM and +3.4% MoM respectively
– May revised higher -4.6% MoM and -2.8% MoM
– US Industrial Production rises (better than expected) +0.6% MoM June (double the 0.3% jump Exp vs slower than the 0.9% surge in May). This pulled Industrial Production up 1.6% YoY – Best since Oct 2022
– Dovish comments from Fed’s Waller
– Williams echoes Powell
COMPANIES:
– Tech gets smoked. NVIDIA, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR DOWN 7%!
GS, MS, BoA, JPM Rev’s SOAR on Investment banking Fees:
– Morgan Stanley selling $8B in Bonds
– NASDAQ worst day since Dec 22
– Berkshire Hathaway increased to an all-time high of $441. Past 4 weeks, Berkshire Hathaway gained 7.98%, and in the last 12 months, increased 27.42%
– Chevron increased to a 6-week high of $160. Past 4 weeks, Chevron gained 4.13%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 4.02%
– Texas Instruments increased to an all-time high of $208. Over the past 4 weeks, Texas Instruments gained 6.74%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 13.42%
– Exxon Mobil increased to an 8-week high of $117. Over the past 4 weeks, Exxon Mobil gained 8.64%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 16.06%
– Citigroup increased to a 29-month high of $67. Past 4 weeks, Citigroup gained 11.36%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 44.05%
– Deutsche Telekom increased to a near 23-year high of $24E. Past 4 weeks, Deutsche Telekom gained 5.26%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 23.72%
GENERAL:
– Global Semi-conductor chip sell off on back of Biden threats on China Ban
– Hot UK CPI
– Microsoft Cuts DEI team “No longer business critical”
– Natural Gas -7.7%
Oats +5%, OJ -4.4%
– DOLLAR/GOLD DOWN SMALL, DOW UP TECH CRASHES, CRUDE RETRACE
DOLLAR DX down: 103.44 -0.5% (103.92 – 103.35) Off LOWS
– AUD UNCH: 67.26 UNCH (67.56 – 67.22) LOWS
– EUR down: 91.41 -0.4% (91.75 – 91.32) Off LOWS
– GBP up: 1.3008 +0.28% (129.67 – 130.44) MID
– JPY down: 156.17 -1.35% (158.22 – 156.08) LOWS
GOLD down: $2463 -0.17% (2481 – 2451) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/down/DOWN: 41492 +0.57%, 5646 -1.25%, 20061 -2.61%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 64609 -0.81%, 3416 -1.68%
CRUDE UP: $82.90 +2.65% (79.43 – 81.50) HIGHS
Coming up:
– AUSSIE EMPLOYMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
– UK: Employment,
– US: IJC, Philly Fed
Speakers:
– ECB President Lagarde
– Fed: Logan, Daly, Bowman
EARNINGS:
– Volvo AB, IDS, Ubisoft, Abbott Labs, Blackstone, TSMC, Intuitive, Netflix
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar index fell below 104 to its lowest level since March 21st, amid a combination of carry trades unraveling and strength in haven peers which offset the recent upside in the buck supported by increasing odds that President Candidate Trump is to win the election. A Trump Presidency would likely resulting in higher tariffs, lower taxes, and inflation pressures.
In the data space, Industrial Production (M/M, Jun) was stronger than expected, helped by a bigger uptick than forecasted in Manufacturing Output. It is worth noting, that the index did see some slight incremental gains earlier on in the session, off the back of the Fed’s Williams saying “the Fed is closer but not ready to cut,” which as WSJ Timiraros points out suggests a rate cut is unlikely at the July meeting even if one or two officials push for it. Meanwhile, the buck had no sustained reaction to Waller saying his most likely scenario is uneven inflation data ahead, though still showing progress, but it would make a cut in the near future more uncertain.
Money markets still forecast the first full 25bps cut in September and 64 bps of cuts by year-end.
The calendar for Thursday will see Philly Fed Business Index (Jul) and Initial Jobless Claims (exp. 230k, prev. 222k), and Fed’s Logan (2026 Voter, Hawk), Daly (2024 Voter, Dovish), and Bowman (Voter, Hawk)
DOLLAR DX down: 103.44 -0.5% (103.92 – 103.35) Off LOWS
EUR:
The uptick in the Euro precedes the ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, where the Central Bank is expected to hold the Deposit Rate at 3.75%, with the first full 25bps rate cut expected in October, with a 94% chance of 2 rate cuts by year-end.
EUR down: 91.41 -0.4% (91.75 – 91.32) Off LOWS
GBP
The Pound extended into a five-day rally, surpassing the 1.30 handle, reaching highs of 1.3044, though pound gains had pared to the round 1.30 handle.
The move follows stickier-than-expected UK Inflation, with Services CPI Y/Y remaining unchanged at 5.7%, above the expected 5.6% and markedly above the BoE forecast of 5.1%; M/M rose 0.6% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%). Headline CPI was hot too, at 2.0% (exp. 1.9%, prev. 2.0%).
BoE pricing still prices the full first cut in November, though odds of a September cut reduced from approx. 88% to 80%.
Elsewhere, Headline PPI Input Y/Y surprisingly fell by 0.4% (exp. 1.2%), and Output fell short at 1.4% (exp. 1.8%).
Thursday will reveal the Employment Change for May and average earnings data.
GBP up: 1.3008 +0.28% (129.67 – 130.44) MID
AUD:
EMPLOYMENT!!!!!
AUD UNCH: 67.26 UNCH (67.56 – 67.22) LOWS
YEN:
Dollar weakness was the further implosion of the yen carry trade (which strengthens the yen vs the dollar). some desks are attributing today’s aggressive price action to a reassessment of the JPY’s role as a funding currency while Reuters reports suggested that intervention could be playing a role.
JPY down: 156.17 -1.35% (158.22 – 156.08) LOWS
GOLD/SILVER
Gold finds support at $2450
GOLD down: $2463 -0.17% (2481 – 2451) MID
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX -1.39% 5,588
– NDX -2.94% 19,799
– DJIA +0.59% 41, 198
– RUT -1.06% 2, 240
EUROPE:
– DAX -0.40% 18,444
– FTSE +0.28% 8,187
– CAC -0.12% 7,571
– ES -1.12% 4,892
Sectors (W to S): Technology -3.72%, Communication Services -2.09%, Consumer Discretionary -1.8%, Industrials -1.3%, Materials -0.2%, Utilities flat, Health +0.48%, Real Estate +0.8%, Financials +0.85%, Energy +1.08%, Consumer Staples +1.43%.
STOCKS:
– Interactive Brokers Group (-0.23%) – Missed on revenue and net interest income
– Johnson & Johnson – EPS and revenue beat, but lowered FY profit guidance
Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk – Roche announced results from two arms of the CT-996 trial, its oral once-a-day GLP-1 drug
– Semiconductor names – Presidential candidate Trump told BBG, that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence as it does not give the country anything. Elsewhere, BBG reported that the Biden admin is contemplating stiffer trade restrictions over concern that US Cos. are giving China too much access to domestic semiconductor technology. Note, Intel whos’ Foundry unit is a large TSM competitor, outperformed, as did Global Foundries
– Morgan Stanley (+0.7%) – Downgraded at Oppenheimer
OIL:
US crude stocks fell for the third straight week (more than expected)
CRUDE UP: $82.90 +2.65% (79.43 – 81.50) HIGHS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.343 -0.16
US 6-MO 5.188 +0.004
US 1-YR 4.849 +0.002
US 5-YR 4.079 -0.01
US 10-YR 4.159 -0.007
US 30-YR 4.375 +0.002
2YR/10YR -0.28
CRYPTO
– In a significant shift from his earlier stance, the BlackRock CEO now views bitcoin as a “hedge for optimism” and a “legitimate financial instrument.”
XRP:
– Inflows into all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs broke $1 billion over the last three days and have reached lifetime inflows of $17 billion since being launched earlier this year. On July 16th alone, $420 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, a six-week high, according to Coinglass
– Crypto loves JD Vance
Bitcoin ETFs continued to see stronger inflows
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 64609 -0.81%, 3416 -1.68%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Joke of the Day:
The depressing thing about tennis is that no matter how good I get, I’ll never be as good, as a wall.
If you don’t like that try this:
Clip of the day:

Watch it.
The last five days have seen Small Caps (Russell 2000) outperform Large Caps (Russell 1000) by the largest amount in history (going back to 1979)
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.