MARKET REPORT
Dublin Bourse 1924
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– Soft UK and Canada retail sales
– Soft Japan CPI
– VIX had a big week, surging back above 16 – its biggest absolute weekly jump since March 2023 (SVB implosion)… but bond vol remains muted
COMPANIES:
– Netflix (-1.8%) posted earnings:
– Revenue hit $9.56 billion in Q2, an increase of 16.8% compared with the same period last year. Exp $9.53B
– Guided to third quarter revenue of $9.73 billion, a miss compared with consensus estimates of $9.83 billion.
– Increase its full-year 2024 revenue growth projection to 14%-15%, up from the prior 13%-15%. It also expects full-year operating margins to hit 26%, an increase from the previous 25%.
– Amex (-3.2%)
– Shares of the payments giant fell the most in nine months after the company said it now expects marketing expenses to be about $6 billion for the year, or about 15% higher than they were in 2023
GENERAL:
– Massive Tech outage causes shutdowns at airports, banks, hospitals, media.
– Crowdstrike (-11.1%), Cyber-Security firm deployed faulty update to Windows.
– Biden faces more calls to step-aside
– Streaming hits 40% of US TV usage for first time
– US housing unaffordability:
– mortgage payment for the typical new home sold consuming 43% of the income earned by a household in the exact middle of the distribution of income in the U.S.
– how much monthly income a household in any of the 50 states would need to afford the median home sold within it, which gives a good indication of which states offer the most and least affordable housing.
– Euro Bourses closed lower, marking their fifth consecutive session of losses, the longest streak since October 2023 amid sustained pressure from potential trade barriers by the United States as traders assessed the impact of a global tech outage caused by issues from Crowdstrike that hampered Microsoft products.
– Lithium Extends plunge to below 85k CNY, 3yr-low.
– Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up
DOLLAR DX up: 104.08 +0.19% (Data Unavail)
– AUD down: 66.85 -0.4% (67.09 – 66.81) LOWS
– EUR up: 91.86 +0.13% (91.78 – 91.92) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 1.2910 -0.29% (129.45 – 129.01) LOWS
– JPY UNCH: 157.44 UNCH (157.86 – 157.00) MID
GOLD DOWN: $2402 -2.18% (Data Unavail) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND DOWN/down/down: 40550 -1.0%, 5552 -0.75%, 19701 -1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 67204 +5.3%, 3512 +2.88%
CRUDE down: $80.25 -3% (Data Unavail)
Coming up:
– Chinese LPR, German Retail Sales
– US & UK Retail Sales, Japan, NZ, UK and Canada inflation, ECB Policy Announcement
Speakers:
EARNINGS:
– Verizon
MAJORS:
DX:
The dollar Index surged back to the highs of the week today and yesterday – ending the best week for the greenback since early June
DOLLAR DX up: 104.08 +0.19% (Data Unavail)
EUR:
EUR up: 91.86 +0.13% (91.78 – 91.92) Off HIGHS
GBP & AUD
GBP down: 1.2910 -0.29% (129.45 – 129.01) LOWS
AUD down: 66.85 -0.4% (67.09 – 66.81) LOWS
YEN:
JPY UNCH: 157.44 UNCH (157.86 – 157.00) MID
GOLD/METALS:
From a successful test down to its rising 18-week moving average near $2300 in late June, August Gold quickly regained the $2400 threshold before achieving a new all-time high at $2488 this Wednesday. But with gold becoming rapidly overbought, profit-taking this morning has driven the price quickly down to test support at $2400.
Although China’s dominance in the gold market is credited for bullion’s 2-month $450 breakout rally into April, new momentum has been building as the Federal Reserve lays the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September.
Gains in gold earlier in the week were erased as the precious metal ended the week basically unchanged:
GOLD DOWN: $2402 -2.18% (Data Unavail) LOWS
BONDS:
– Bonds were also sold alongside stocks, with Treasury yields ending the week up around 5bps across the whole curve…
EQUITIES:
Nasdaq suffering its worst week since April (with MAG7 basket down around 4%). Small Caps and The Dow ended the week higher while S&P joined Nasdaq in the red
– The Magnificent 7 stocks have lost $1.3 trillion in market cap since the peak on 7/10 – the biggest 7-day drop for that basket ever
US:
– SPX -0.71% 5,505
– NDX -0.93% 19,523
– DJIA -0.93% 40,288
– RUT -0.63% 2,184
EUROPE:
– DAX -1.03% 18,166
– FTSE -0.60% 8,156
– CAC -0.69% 7,535
– ES50 -0.91% 4,826
Sectors (W to S): Energy -1.29%, Technology -1.27%, Financials -1.00%, Materials -0.87%, Consumer Discretionary -0.80%, Industrials -0.60%, Consumer Staples -0.38%, Communication Services -0.19%, Real Estate -0.12%, Utilities +0.11%, Health +0.5%.
STOCKS:
– CrowdStrike (-11.1%) – Faced with a major outage after its latest update, whereby the CEO said the defect is related to window hosts, not Mac and Linux, and is not a security incident or cyberattack. CEO said later, the issue has been resolved. Outage caused issues in (MSFT) cloud services facing outages, Airline names (UAL, DAL) having to pause flights, and people’s payments with Visa not processing.
– ELi Lilly (+1.01%) – Weight loss drug tirezapatide received China approval, according to Reuters
– Starbucks (+6.85%) – Shares jump on activist Elliot taking a big stake in the Co., according to WSJ; the exact size of the position and demands of Elliot, could not be learned.
– Tesla (-4.02%) – Reportedly halted some of its production lines due to the Microsoft/Crowdstrike outage, according to Business Insider; adds TSLA staff are yet to be told when to return to work. CEO Musk tweeted, Via X, “We just deleted Crowdstrike from all our systems, so no rollouts at all”. TSLA also raised prices by USD 2,000 for several vehicles.
OIL:
WTI (Q4) SETTLED USD 2.69 LOWER AT 80.13/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLED 2.48 LOWER AT 82.63/BBL
The crude complex ended the day, and the week, in the red as the Dollar strength weighed after newsflow was dominated by the Crowdstrike update issue, in which major oil/gas trading desks were also affected. Nonetheless, WTI and Brent saw continued weakness throughout the US session to settle at session troughs. Despite the notable losses, energy specific and geopolitical newsflow was sparse with the highlight arguably coming via Sky News Arabia who reported that the IDF said “in the coming days, we will discuss options for offensive responses to those who threaten Israel’s security”. In addition, Israeli media reported that there was at least one explosion hit in Tel Aviv, while Yemen’s Houthis said they will reveal details about a military operation that targeted Tel Aviv. Lastly, Baker Hughes Rig Count added rigs for the second time in three weeks; Oil -1 at 477, Natgas +3 at 103, Total +2 at 586.
CRUDE down: $80.25 -3% (Data Unavail)
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.363 +0.021
US 6-MO 5.195 +0.005
US 1-YR 4.878 +0.019
US 5-YR 4.168 +0.065
US 10-YR 4.24 +0.052
US 30-YR 4.449 +0.043
2YR/10YR -0.27
CRYPTO
– With a second term in the White House for Donald Trump considered the far more beneficial outcome for the crypto industry, BTC was buoyed by Biden’s poor performance thus far in the campaign coupled with the assassination attempt on the Republican nominee.
– Mkt likely betting big on a break-out post Trump win
– Bitcoin has largely traded in a range this week amid continued Mt. Gox supply and tanking equities, with firm such as QCP Capital considering it be a sign of the market shaking off worries.
Bitcoin rallied for the second straight week (its best week since March), back above $67,000 for the first time in six weeks
– Most notably, Bitcoin has decoupled from its strong correlation with tech overall in the last two weeks…
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 67204 +5.3%, 3512 +2.88%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Point of the Day:
Quote of the day:
“What happens after you die?” “Lot’s of things happen after you die – they just don’t involve you.”
― Louis C.K.
On this day:
July 19th 1940: FDR nominated for unprecedented 3rd term.
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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