MARKET REPORT
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Antwerp Bourse Glass roof
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Day in Review:
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Today:
DATA:
– POWELL: “We didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter including the one from last week do add somewhat to confidence” inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target, Powell said during an interview at the Economic Club of Washington.
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– Factory activity in NY falls more than expected. -6.6 Exp -6.
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– Goolsbee supports lowering rates
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– Disappointing Chinese data
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COMPANIES:
– TRUMP Media SOARS (DJT +34%/DJTWW +54%)
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– Goldman Profits surge 150%
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– Musk requests extra time for Robo-Taxi (Tesla +2%)
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– Berkshire-Hathaway share price hit record high
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– Apple hits record high
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– Tesla said it delivered 443,956 vehicles during 2nd Qtr
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– Tesla downgraded to ‘SELL’ at UBS (companies valuation ‘too significant’)
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– Nike hits 4yr LOW
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– American Express hits all-time high
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– AAPL Indian revenue +33% Y/Y, while it is upgraded at Loop & PT raised at MS
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GENERAL:
– Trump announces JD Vance as VP
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– Crypto surges on ETH ETF news (Eth +7%, BTC +5%)
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– Trump Classified Docs Case Dismissed in Florida (Mar-a-Lago docs)
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– Musk backs Trump
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– Biden latest Gaffe “We settle our differences at the BATTLE-box”
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– Republican National Convention! Milwaukee! (Lets go Brandon!)
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– Spot Ether ETF’s likely July 23rd trading.
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– Euro Bourses close lower
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– Israel drone strike kills Syrian ‘businessman’ close to Gov’t.
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– Natural Gas -6.18% Lumbar +6.43% cotton +2.9% Corn -5.94% Wheat -3.63% Coffee -2.91%
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– DOLLAR/GOLD UP SMALL, EQUITIES UP, CRYPTO SURGES! OIL DOWN SMALL, TREASURIES STEEPEN
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DOLLAR DX up: 103.95 +0.16% (103.72 – 103.97) HIGHS
– AUD down: 67.64 -0.35% (67.54 – 67.91) Off LOWS
– EUR UNCH: 91.76 UNCH (91.54 – 91.85) Off HIGHS
– GBP down: 1.2964 -0.15% (129.63 – 129.94) LOWS
– JPY up: 158.05 +0.11% (158.15 – 157.40) Off HIGHS
GOLD up: $2427 +0.28% (2406 – 2442) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up: 40544 +0.6%, 5688 +0.41%, 20625 +0.49%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 63621 +5%, 3430 +6%
CRUDE down: $81.96 -0.3% (81.53 – 82.47) MID
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Coming up:
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– German ZEW
– ECB Bank Lending Survey
– US Import Prices, Retail Sales
– Canadian CPI, Retail Sales
– New Zealand CPI
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Speakers:
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– Fed: Kugler
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EARNINGS:
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– Richemont, B&M European, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, Charles Schwab.
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MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar Index initially gapped higher following the attempted assassination of (future) President Trump.
The DXY hit a low later in the session of 104.00 in response to Fed Chair Powell, who acknowledged recent inflation data adds to the Fed’s confidence that inflation is returning to target, but the move swiftly pared with the Fed chair adding that more data will give them more confidence.
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US data saw the NY Fed Manufacturing survey for July came in slightly above expectations while prices paid saw a slight uptick.
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Attention turns to US Retail Sales for June with the M/M expected at -0.3%, and Fed’s Kugler (Voter, Neutral) to speak at the NABE conference.
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DOLLAR DX up: 103.95 +0.16% (103.72 – 103.97) HIGHS
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EUR:
The Euro was ultimately flat against the Buck with the Trump assassination attempt and Fed Chair Powell taking the limelight on Monday.
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Out of the Eurozone, there was mixed Industrial Production data for May; M/M fell 0.6% (exp. -1.0%), while the Y/Y fell 2.9% (Prev. -3.1%).
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Euro watchers look towards Tuesday for the ECB Bank Lending Survey and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which previously increased to 47.5 in June 2024, the highest reading since February 2022; markets expect the index to fall to 42.3 for July.
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EUR/USD traded either side of the 1.09 mark, with attention fixated on the ECB’s Interest rate decision on Thursday, where rates are widely expected to be left unchanged. There are also the Final figures for June CPI in the Eurozone on Wednesday
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EUR UNCH: 91.76 UNCH (91.54 – 91.85) Off HIGHS
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GBP
GBP and AUD traders will be eyeing UK Inflation (Wed), Australian Unemployment Rate (Thu), and UK Retail Sales (Fri).
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GBP down: 1.2964 -0.15% (129.63 – 129.94) LOWS
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AUD:
GBP and AUD traders will be eyeing UK Inflation (Wed), Australian Unemployment Rate (Thu), and UK Retail Sales (Fri).
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AUD down: 67.64 -0.35% (67.54 – 67.91) Off LOWS
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YEN:
Nothing of note to report
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JPY up: 158.05 +0.11% (158.15 – 157.40) Off HIGHS
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BONDS
– Government bonds are trading lower on Monday. Top gainers are South Africa 10Y (11.50bps), US 10Y (2.90bps) and Canada 10Y (1.20bps). Biggest losers are Greece 10Y (-7.50bps), Switzerland 10Y (-6.70bps) and New Zealand 10Y (-5.79bps)
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– The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.23% on Monday, rebounding from 4-month lows as an assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump raised his odds of retaking the White House in November.
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Markets have been considering a Trump win bullish for Treasury yields as his policies are seen as inflationary due to tax cuts, tighter immigration policy and higher tariffs on imports. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield came under pressure last week as cooling US inflation bolstered bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
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Fed Powell indicated that the last three inflation readings have increased confidence in the economy’s performance and noted that while the Federal Reserve’s policy remains restrictive, it is not severe. He emphasized that the Fed can act preemptively before inflation reaches 2% but refused to signal any specific timing for potential rate cuts.
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GOLD/SILVER
Nothing of note to report.
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GOLD up: $2427 +0.28% (2406 – 2442) MID
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EQUITIES:
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US:
– SPX +0.28% 5,631
– NDX +0.27% 20,386
– DJI +0.53% 40,211
– RUT +1.71% 2,184
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EUROPE:
– ES50 -1.22% 4982
– DAX -0.79% 18581
– CAC -1.19% 7619
– FTSE -0.85% 8175
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Sectors (S to W): Energy +1.56%, Financials +1.42%, Industrials +0.70%, Technology +0.41%, Real Estate +0.40%, Communication Services +0.32%, Materials -0.30%, Consumer Discretionary -0.31%, Health -0.43%, Consumer Staples -0.60%, Utilities -2.39%
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STOCKS:
– Goldman Sachs (+2.57%) – Beat on EPS, revenue, FICC sales and trading revenue
– Apple (+1.67%) – Indian revenue increases 33% Y/Y, nearing USD 8bln. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its PT and replaced Dell with Apple as the top pick in enterprise hardware. Apple was also upgraded at Loop Capital.
– Trump Media & Technology Group (+32%) – The odds of Donald Trump winning the election surged after the attempted assassination over the weekend. Following this, Solar names (ENPH, FSLR) saw downside, whereas Health Insurers (CI, CVS, UNH) and Gun names (SWBI, RGR) noticed gains.
– Alphabet (+0.75%) – In talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for ~ USD 23bln. The deal would mostly be funded in cash and would be the company’s biggest acquisition to date.
– Salesforce (-0.44%) – Cuts about 300 jobs as it seeks ‘right structure
– Nvidia (-0.62%) – French Competition Authority confirmed an investigation is underway into the Co.
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OIL:
NAT GAS: US nat gas saw notable losses on Monday, whilst ING suggested that “More recent weakness in Henry Hub appears to be due to an outage at Freeport LNG, following Hurricane Beryl. The LNG export plant is taking longer than expected to resume operations.” Following this, Freeport LNG reported it expects to restart the first LNG train this week, and intends to restart the remaining two LNG trains shortly after the first one.
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CRUDE down: $81.96 -0.3% (81.53 – 82.47) MID
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CRYPTO
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CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 63621 +5%, 3430 +6%
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KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
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Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Joke of the Day:
Elephant says to a mouse “Why you so small?”
Mouse says “Leave me alone I’m sick!
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Clip of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xWkiYsG-CVE?sttick=0
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(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
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I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
