MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)

1907, Zagreb:
Croatian regions were split between the Austrian and Hungarian part. However, the Croatian-Hungarian Compromise granted a certain level of autonomy to Croatia and Slavonia, even though not in the field of economy, trade and transport, which were governed by the government in Budapest.

Anxious to gain as much independence as possible, Croatian businessmen were striving to form the fourth economic department, so they founded an Association of Industrialists and Merchants of Croatia and Slavonia under the auspices of the Chamber of Commerce.

The Association also spurred the establishment of the Commodities and Valuables Division in 1907. It was inaugurated in the building of the Chamber of Commerce on 15th June, 1907. S. D. Aleksander headed the division, which effectively launched the market in the stocks of local factories and financial institutions that major exchanges in Vienna and Budapest would not admit to trading.

Shares and other securities, currencies and commodities were traded, and during World War I the Zagreb Stock Exchange did not operate, and 1918 it resumed operations under the name ‘Zagreb Stock Exchange for Commodities and Values’

Day in Review:

Today:
DATA:

– US PMI:
– Business activity grew at its fastest pace in 27 months during July, according to the latest S&P Global flash US composite PMI.
– The composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, came in at 55 in July, up from 54.8 in June. Economists had expected the index to tick lower to 54.2
– The surprise growth in activity came alongside lower price increases. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the slowest rate since January and the second-slowest rate since October 2020

Post a slide in existing home sales in June, NEW HOME SALES confirmed the slowdown: -0.6% MoM (notably below the 3.4% MoM expected) and ASLO saw a major downward revision in May from -11.3% MoM to -14.9% MoM. That leaves new home sales down 7.4% YoY…

Erm….. BONDS!:

Rate Cut odds

COMPANIES:

– TECH STOCKS DUMP (NASDAQ -3.65%)
               –
Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that volumes were explosive today (tracking +18% vs the trailing 20 days)
– Tesla SMOKED -11.51%
– Alphabet -5.09%
– NVIDIA -6.84%

Is this the beginning?

– Microsoft -3.68%
– Broadcom/Arm -6.84/-8.03%

– Potato Giant Lamb Weston -27% on Fast-food demand softens

– Deutsche Bank (-8.66%, $15.56 vs Prev Close $17.04) posted its first quarterly loss in four years: 
– Revenue from fixed-income and currencies fell about 3%, trailing the average 5% gain on Wall- Street (even as IB income rose about 10%).
– Shelved plans for a second buyback this year as a previously disclosed litigation charge pushed it to the first quarterly loss since 2020.

– AT&T (+5.13%) released earnings per share at 0.57 USD, in line with market expectations.
– Fiserv (+2.44%) released earnings per share at 2.13 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.10 USD.
– General Dynamics (-3.52%) released earnings per share at 3.26 USD, compared to market expectations of 3.28 USD.
– CME (+0.18%) released earnings per share at 2.56 USD, compared to market expectations of 2.54 USD

BNP Paribas (-1.14%) released earnings per share at 2.81 EUR, compared to market expectations of 2.46 EUR

– Visa (-3.57%) hits 31-week LOW
– Alphabet (-5.09%) hits 6-week LOW
– Mastercard (-1.89%) hits 26-week LOW
– Lockheed Martin (+2.41%) hits record HIGH

– Ford down 1.16% on earnings MISS

GENERAL:

– BoC Cuts rates for 2nd consecutive month “reasonable to expect more”

– Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed congress.
– Musk Attended

– Ferrari expands Crypto payments to Europe after successful US launch

– Judge Rules For Musk’s SpaceX In Lawsuit Against National Labor Relations Board

– Sugar hits 20-month LOW

– CAC/FTSE/DAX close DOWN

– Nat Gas continues to surge (+4.79%), Coffee/Corn/Rapeseed down (-3%)

– Equities puke LEAD BY NASDAQ, ETH DROPS, Crude REBOUNDS, Company EARNINGS, Treasuries STEEPEN

DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.37            UNCH (104.55 – 104.12) MID
– AUD down: 65.79                         -0.53% (66.12 – 65.79) LOWS
– EUR up: 92.23                                +0.14% (92.34 – 92.00) MID
– GBP UNCH: 1.2904                       UNCH (128.78 – 129.37) MID
– JPY DOWN: 153.95                       -1.0% (155.49 – 153.10) Off LOWS

GOLD down: $2400                                       -0.28% (2432 – 2400) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND DOWN:                                    40094 -1.28%, 5465 -2.39%, 19202 -3.58%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Unch/DOWN:                65840 UNCH, 3367  -2.75%
CRUDE UP: $77.54                                         +0.75%  (77.02 – 78.16) MID

Coming Up:

– French Business Climate Manufacturing, German Ifo, US Durable Goods, GDP Advance (Q2), PCE Prices Advance (Q2), US IJC

Speakers:

– ECB Lagarde

EARNINGS:

– BE Semiconductor, Roche, Julius Baer, Nestle, Lonza, Sanofi, STMicroelectronics, Hermes, Vivendi, Vinci, EssilorLuxottica, Stellantis, TotalEnergies, Dassault Systemes, IG, Anglo American, Lloyds, AstraZeneca, ITV, Vodafone, Unilever, AbbVie, Willis Towers

MAJORS:

DX:
The Dollar was flat on Thursday, and was weighed on the notable Yen strength, but this was offset by weakness in all G10 currencies (ex CHF) amid notable risk off sentiment after disappointing mega-cap earnings from Alphabet and Tesla followed by US Mfg.

Flash PMI unexpectedly falling into contractionary territory.
Nonetheless, the Dollar Index printed a daily trough of 104.120 in wake of US flash PMIs, which were ultimately mixed as Manufacturing unexpectedly fell beneath 50, while Services rose to a 28-month high leaving the Composite edging higher.

Looking ahead, all attention is on US Q2 Advance GDP (Thurs) and Core PCE (Fri).

DOLLAR DX UNCH: 104.37            UNCH (104.55 – 104.12) MID

EUR & GBP:

Euro, there was a deluge of flash PMI data, whereby EZ PMIs fell short of expectations with German manufacturing a particular soft point, while out of the UK a mixed set of numbers was seen with internal commentary weighing in on both the dovish and hawkish side of things for the BoE, though with the underlying skew perhaps slightly more to the hawkish side.
BoE heads into the quiet period, money market pricing is 50/50 for whether the Bank cuts or holds on August 1st.

EUR up: 92.23                                  +0.14% (92.34 – 92.00) MID

GBP UNCH: 1.2904                         UNCH (128.78 – 129.37) MID

AUD
65 HANDLE in reach.

AUD down: 65.79                            -0.53% (66.12 – 65.79) LOWS


YEN:
BoJ source reports which noted the central bank is to weigh a rate hike next week and have a detailed plan to halve bond buying in the coming years. As such, USD/JPY continued on its recent trend and hit a low of 153.12

– Major Yen carry unwind continues:

JPY DOWN: 153.95                         -1.0% (155.49 – 153.10) Off LOWS

GOLD/METALS:
Move-on.

GOLD down: $2400                                       -0.28% (2432 – 2400) LOWS

BONDS:

The US yield curve is turning steeper amid growing calls for the Federal Reserve to start to cutting interest rates as soon as next week.

Five-year Treasury yields slid as much as seven basis points on Wednesday, while those on 30-year bonds were up more than five. That pushed the differential between those yields to about 38 basis points, the steepest level since May 2023 — and an indication that investors think the Fed may cut faster and deeper than previously anticipated.

“We are seeing a perfect storm for the continuation of a major steepening trade in the US Treasury market,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC.

With short-dated Treasury yields declining the most, widely watched differentials hit extreme levels. The two-year note’s yield exceeded the 10-year’s by about 15 basis points, the smallest margin seen this year.

A $70 billion sale on Wednesday of five-year notes came at a yield of 4.121%, above the 4.110% level at which the when-issued security traded just as auction bidding completed. The bid-to-cover ratio — a measure of the degree of interest in the sale — at the auction was 2.40, compared to to 2.36 average at the previous six sales.

EQUITIES:

– The Mag7 basket of stocks suffered its biggest daily loss since Oct 2022 (having lost almost $1.75 trillion in market cap from their highs 10 days ago)

– All 7 of the Mag7 were lower today

OIL
:

Oil prices dead-cat bounced higher off their 200DMA but remain near six-week lows.

CRUDE UP: $77.54                                         +0.75%  (77.02 – 78.16) MID

CRYPTO
– Spot ether ETFs saw $1 billion worth of trading and $107 million of inflows on their first day.

– Spot bitcoin ETF flows turned negative for the first time since July 3

– The Mt. Gox estate has sent another $335.8 million worth of bitcoin to Bitstamp, though distributions are unlikely to drag the price of bitcoin

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH Unch/DOWN:                65840 UNCH, 3367  -2.75%

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you


Quote of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w5Rn6RTvNd4

Clip of the Day
:

Song of the day:

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On this day:

July 24th1:
1911: Machu Pichu discovered
2005: Lance Armstrong wins 7th Tour De France

(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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