MARKET REPORT
1571 Elizabeth 1 opens the Royal Exchange in London
The Royal Exchange of London was founded by the merchant Thomas Gresham in 1568, and officially inaugurated by Queen Elizabeth, in 1571, as the commercial centre for the city of London. But it was also meant to be a forum for merchants to meet and exchange news from all corners of the world.
The London Royal Exchange consisted of an open courtyard surrounded by a colonnade walk on all four sides. Above the colonnade was a second story with small shops selling a wide variety of merchants’ wares. Twice a day, in the morning and in the late afternoon, the bell in the tower on the left rang to call merchants from across Europe to come together to do business. The space within the Exchange was, to some extent, ‘mapped’ geographically: contemporary accounts note that merchants of different nationalities set up their stations in specific areas, making them easy to find in the general mêlée. The site became a prominent London landmark, and by the 1630s it was known as the ‘Eye of London’: a place to see and be seen.
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– DOW SURGES 766 POINTS!
– Hot US Retail Sales, particularly in Retail Control
– Came in hotter than expected with the headline print at 0.0%, above the -0.3% forecast while ex-autos metric rose by 0.4%, above the exp. 0.0%, accelerating from the upwardly revised 0.1% print in May.
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment falls more than expected
COMPANIES:
– BoA Profit reports (+5.25%)
– Revenue $25.4BN, up 1% YoY and beating estimates of $25.22BN
– EPS $0.83, down 6% YoY and beating estimates of $0.80
– Schwab tanks (-10%)
– EPS 0.73 p/s vs 0.72 Exp
– Last 12months +28%
– Adidas up 5% on guidance.
– Goldman Sachs hits all-time high, +50% last 12-months
– Berkshire Hathaway hits all-time high, +27% last 12-months
– Blackstone hits 29-month high, +28% last 12-months
– American Express hits all-time high, +39% last 12 months
– JP Morgan hits all-time high, +38% last 12 months
GENERAL:
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Tenacious D co-founder says ‘don’t miss Trump next time’, Jack Black cancels Australian tour
– Musk will move Space X from Cali to Texas.
– Natural Gas -6.18% Lumbar +6.43% cotton +2.9% Corn -5.94% Wheat -3.63% Coffee -2.91%
– Gold SURGES (+1.77%)
– Crypto short squeeze continues to 65k+
– X hits record numbers
– Nat Gas +4.36%, Lumbar +11%
– DOLLAR/GOLD UP SMALL, EQUITIES UP, CRYPTO SURGES! OIL DOWN SMALL, TREASURIES STEEPEN
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.91 UNCH (103.89 – 104.19) LOWS
– AUD down: 67.37 -0.38% (67.50 – 67.16) MID
– EUR UNCH: 91.71 UNCH (91.68 – 91.95) Off LOWS
– GBP UNCH: 1.2975 UNCH (129.80 – 129.40) Off HIGHS
– JPY up: 158.13 +0.13% (158.28 – 158.84) Off LOWS
GOLD UP: $2473 +1.84% (Data unavailable)
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up: 41261 +1.84%, 5715 +0.57%, 20588 UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 64782 +1.81%, 3441 +0.52%
CRUDE down: $80.82 -1.33% (Data unavailable)
Coming up:
UK CPI, PPI
– EZ HICP (F)
– US Industrial Production, Building Permits
Speakers:
– Fed; Barkin, Waller
EARNINGS:
– ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Elevance Health, US Bancorp, United Airlines
MAJORS:
(Points)
DX:
The Dollar Index finished the session flat despite experiencing upside in response to strong US Retail Sales, reaching highs of 104.51, yet the index ultimately pared gains later on.
Headline Retail Sales M/M was unchanged at 0.0%, vs. the market forecasts of a 0.3% drop; the prior saw an upward revision. Core retail sales (ex-autos) and Retail Control (ex-autos/Autos/Building Materials/Food Service) printed gains over the month, considerably beating market expectations, with the latter likely having a positive impact on Q2 GDP.
Elsewhere in the data world for June, Import Prices M/M were flat, slightly above forecasts, and the prior too saw an upward revision, albeit still negative. Export Prices M/M dropped well below expectations, as well as the prior experiencing a downward revision.
The US calendar for Wednesday consists of Fed’s Barkin (2024 Voter), Waller (Voter), and Industrial Production (Jun).
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.91 UNCH (103.89 – 104.19) LOWS
EUR:
EUR/USD was flat despite the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jul) declining more than was expected, printing its first fall in a year from 47.5 to 41.8 (exp. 42.3), though Current Conditions did rise more than expected to -68.9 (exp. -74.5), albeit remains deeply in negative territory.
Elsewhere, fresh EZ fundamentals are scarce until Thursday’s ECB announcement, albeit, Eurozone Final CPI data for June is released on Wednesday; EUR/USD hovers around 1.09.
Elsewhere, the ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed credit standards were broadly unchanged at tight levels in Q2 2024
EUR UNCH: 91.71 UNCH (91.68 – 91.95) Off LOWS
GBP
GBP and AUD traders will be eyeing UK Inflation (Wed), Australian Unemployment Rate (Thu), and UK Retail Sales (Fri).
GBP UNCH: 1.2975 UNCH (129.80 – 129.40) Off HIGHS
AUD:
UNEMPLOYMENT THURS!
AUD down: 67.37 -0.38% (67.50 – 67.16) MID
YEN & FRANC:
Yen and the Franc diverge, with CHF the clear outperformer in the G10 FX space versus the dollar, with the Yen giving back recent strength after experiencing significant upside after last week’s soft US CPI, dovish Powell, and Japanese intervention; with the BoJ accounts pointing towards JPY 2.1tln of intervention on July 12th, Bloomberg reports. USD/CHF nears 0.8935 whereas USD/JPY climbs to 158.40.
JPY up: 158.13 +0.13% (158.28 – 158.84) Off LOWS
BONDS
T-NOTE (U4) FUTURES SETTLED 11 TICKS HIGHER AT 110-10+
Treasuries saw gains on Tuesday, reversing majority of Retail Sales induced weakness. At settlement, 2s -4.7bps at 4.460%, 3s -3.5bps at 4.234%, 5s -1.4bps at 4.109%, 7s -0.9bps at 4.130%, 10s -0.6bps at 4.187%, 20s +0.0bps at 4.502%, 30s -0.4bps at 4.400%
GOLD/SILVER
SURGE on rate cut hopes.
GOLD UP: $2473 +1.84% (Data unavailable)
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX +0.64% 5,667
– NDX flat 20,399
– DJI +1.85% 40,954
– RUT +3.5% 2,264
EUROPE:
– DAX -0.35% 18,525
– FTSE -0.22% 8,165
– CAC -1.87% 7,580
– ES -0.67% 4,950
Sectors (W to S): Communication Services -0.64%, Technology -0.38%, Energy +0.35%, Utilities +0.77%, Consumer Staples +0.95%, Real Estate +1.03%, Financials +1.22%, Health +1.45%, Consumer Discretionary +1.51%, Materials +1.96%, Industrials +2.54%
STOCKS:
– Blackstone (+3.5%), CVC (+6.53) – Weigh bids for Carlyle’s (+5.54%) Standardaaero which could fetch USD 10bln or more in sale or IPO, via Bloomberg.
– Trump Media & Technology Group (-9%) – After its surge on Monday, the Co. announced it is to sell 37.97mln shares of common stock for holders.
– Rio Tinto (-1.82%) – Pilbara iron ore output fell 2% Y/Y; expectations for 2024 alumina production were lowered
– Charles Schwab (-10.18%) – Bank deposits and net interest revenue fell.
– Morgan Stanley (+0.84) – Missed on wealth management revenue and AUM; though, did beat on EPS, revenue, and other key metrics. CEO says dividends are the highest priority in the use of capital; not thinking about acquisitions in the short term.
– Bank of America (+5.3%) – Beat on top and bottom line and CFO expects NII to rise in Q3 and Q4.
OIL:
WTI (Q4) SETTLED USD 1.15 LOWER AT 80.76/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLED USD 1.12 LOWER AT 83.73/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Tuesday, albeit settling off lows, as it was weighed on by post-retail sales Dollar strength and ongoing China problems. As such, WTI and Brent sold off throughout the European morning to hit troughs of USD 80.22/bbl and 83.30/bbl, respectively, but pared some of the weakness through the US session. Whilst the Greenback strength initially weighed, so did the continuing woes around Chinese demand in the wake of several downbeat data releases, including GDP, Retail Sales, Inflation, and Imports.
On the geopolitical footing, there was little by way of new updates out of Israel/Hamas, and likewise with Ukraine/Russia.
Elsewhere, Indian oil refiner Nayara Energy is planning to shut a delayed coker and some other units at its refinery in Vadinar (400k BPD) for maintenance for about three weeks from end-August or early September, according to Reuters citing sources.
Looking ahead, private inventory data is after-hours where expectations currently are (bbls): Crude +1mln, Distillate -0.5mln, Gasoline -1.7mln. Oil report from newsqaurk
CRUDE down: $80.82 -1.33% (Data unavailable)
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.354 -0.14
US 6-MO 5.182 UNCH
US 1-YR 4.833 -0.009
US 5-YR 4.075 UNCH
US 10-YR 4.158 -0.008
US 30-YR 4.372 UNCH
2YR/10YR -0.26
CRYPTO
https://www.investopedia.com/cryptocurrency-price-movements-today-07162024-8678602
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 64782 +1.81%, 3441 +0.52%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Joke of the Day:
At Trump’s rally, just after shots were heard, the secret service screamed out ‘Donald Duck!’
A thank-you.
If you don’t like that try this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsvyJCZ9n8
Clip of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLb2JsbaS2U
Watch it.
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
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