Is Japan getting their mistake of 2023 once again?
Data:
đŚ Global Rates / Yields
- United States: UST 2Y ~3.52% | 10Y ~4.16% | 30Y ~4.80% â yields steadied after recent volatility; front-end remains sensitive to CPI expectations.
- United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.36%, marginally softer as easing bets for later-2026 persist.
- Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.82%, stable with inflation near target anchoring ECB expectations.
- France: 10Y OAT ~3.51%, little changed.
- Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.45%, spreads contained amid supportive risk tone.
- Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.09%, still near multi-decade highs, keeping global duration and FX carry trades sensitive.
- Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.66%, elevated on sticky inflation risk.
- Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.37%, tracking U.S. Treasuries.
đŠ Equities â Major Index Moves
United States:
- Nasdaq: +0.4% (tech/AI leadership persisted).
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.2% (near record territory).
- Dow Jones: ~flat to +0.1% (financials lagged).
Asia:
- Nikkei 225: -0.3% (latest prior close).
Europe:
- CAC 40: ~+0.2%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~+0.3%.
- DAX (GER40): ~+0.1%.
European equities remained supported by defensives and selective cyclicals.
đ¨ Macro / Economic Calendar
- CPI risk front and center: Investors trimmed directional exposure ahead of U.S. inflation, keeping rates and equities range-bound.
- Fed credibility in focus: Recent policy headlines continued to add a risk premium to rates and FX despite calmer trading.
- Tech leadership intact: Nasdaq outperformance reflected preference for earnings visibility and secular growth.
- Japan rates remain a global anchor: Elevated JGB yields continued to influence global bond correlations and USD/JPY volatility.
- Energy steady: Oil prices held recent gains as markets balanced geopolitical risk against supply expectations.
Companies.
+) JPMorgan (JPM) slid after results as investors focused on forward risks tied to a proposed credit-card interest-rate cap, despite headline beats in parts of the report.
+) Delta Air Lines (DAL) dropped after issuing a 2026 profit outlook that disappointed, pressuring the broader airline complex (including American Airlines).
+) Chipotle (CMG) fell on a leadership change headline, adding idiosyncratic pressure to the consumer discretionary tape.
+) Moderna (MRNA) surged after raising revenue expectations and updating product/pipeline messaging, driving a notable bid across healthcare leaders.
+) Revvity (RVTY) advanced after delivering stronger profit/revenue expectations, reinforcing a âquality healthcare/toolsâ bid.
+) Cardinal Health (CAH) gained following profit/revenue outlook strength, adding to the sessionâs healthcare leadership.
+) Large U.S. financials broadly underperformed on the rate-cap narrative spillover, with investors repricing potential impacts to revolving credit profitability.
+) Energy equities outperformed as oil prices rose on geopolitics/supply concerns, supporting a âcash-flow + inflation hedgeâ rotation.
+) L3Harris (LHX) was highlighted after news linked to a $1 billion U.S. government investment, keeping the defense theme in focus.
+) Small caps remained a relative bright spot (Russell 2000 strength year-to-date was cited), consistent with broadening participation beyond megacaps.
+) Market tone: the CPI print (Dec: ~0.2% m/m) reinforced expectations for multiple Fed cuts later in 2026, but price action suggested investors still demanded clean earnings/guidance.
+) Global read-through: Japanâs equity rally (Nikkei strength) was cited alongside U.S. moves, while Europe tracked the softer U.S. close with a more mixed tone.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Ticker | Move (Close) | Market Cap | Volume (Day) | Key driver / headline |
| Moderna | MRNA | +7.00% (36.21) | $15.26B | ~5.0M | Raised 2025 revenue outlook; pipeline visibility improved. |
| Intel | INTC | +7.33% (47.29) | $235.73B | ~167.1M | Analyst upgrade + re-rating momentum in semis/turnaround. |
| AMD | AMD | +6.39% (220.97) | $359.75B | ~55.0M | Upgrade/positioning tailwinds; semis dispersion favored AMD. |
| Revvity (ex-PerkinElmer) | RVTY | +4.10% (105.89) | $11.78B | ~1.10M | Company indicated it expects to exceed Q4 guidance. |
| Viatris | VTRS | +0.99% (12.64) | ~$14.6B | ~0.63M | Upbeat sentiment after a rating / positioning shift; high-dividend defensives bid. |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Ticker | Move (Close) | Market Cap | Volume (Day) | Key driver / headline |
| Moderna | MRNA | +7.00% (36.21) | $15.26B | ~5.0M | Raised 2025 revenue outlook; pipeline visibility improved. |
| Intel | INTC | +7.33% (47.29) | $235.73B | ~167.1M | Analyst upgrade + re-rating momentum in semis/turnaround. |
| AMD | AMD | +6.39% (220.97) | $359.75B | ~55.0M | Upgrade/positioning tailwinds; semis dispersion favored AMD. |
| Revvity (ex-PerkinElmer) | RVTY | +4.10% (105.89) | $11.78B | ~1.10M | Company indicated it expects to exceed Q4 guidance. |
| Viatris | VTRS | +0.99% (12.64) | ~$14.6B | ~0.63M | Upbeat sentiment after a rating / positioning shift; high-dividend defensives bid. |
General
Currency Overview: FX markets remain range-bound as investors await clearer macro confirmation
 G10 currencies traded with subdued volatility, reflecting a continued preference for relative-value positioning over directional bets. Liquidity conditions were normal, but conviction remained limited as markets looked ahead to upcoming U.S. inflation data and central-bank commentary for confirmation of the current soft-landing narrative.
EUR: Euro stabilizes as ECB caution offsets weak growth signals
 The euro traded steadily, supported by expectations that the ECB will proceed cautiously on rate cuts amid still-uneven disinflation. However, upside momentum remained capped by fragile Eurozone growth and subdued credit demand, keeping EUR largely driven by rate differentials rather than domestic optimism.
GBP: Sterling holds firm despite lingering UK growth concerns
 Sterling remained resilient as global rate dynamics provided support, though domestic fundamentals continued to limit upside. Investors remained cautious on the UK outlook given weak activity data and fiscal sensitivity, leaving GBP responsive to external yield moves rather than domestic catalysts.
USD: Dollar consolidates as easing expectations remain well-anchored
 The U.S. dollar traded sideways as markets maintained expectations for a gradual, data-dependent easing path by the Fed. Relative U.S. growth resilience continued to provide a floor, but the absence of fresh macro surprises limited scope for renewed dollar strength.
JPY: Yen remains pressured by carry dynamics in a low-volatility environment
 The yen stayed soft as stable U.S. yields and compressed volatility encouraged carry positioning. With no new signals from the Bank of Japan, JPY continued to trade as a proxy for global yield differentials rather than domestic policy developments.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver consolidate as real yields remain contained
 Gold and silver prices traded in narrow ranges, supported by contained real yields and residual defensive demand. However, calmer risk sentiment and the lack of geopolitical escalation limited safe-haven inflows, keeping precious metals in consolidation mode.
Energy: Oil prices hold steady amid balanced supply and demand signals
 Brent and WTI were broadly stable as supply discipline and geopolitical risk premiums offset ongoing concerns about global demand momentum. Energy markets continued to signal limited inflationary pressure from oil at current levels.
Equity Flow: Investors favor quality as broad risk appetite remains selective
 Equity flows pointed to selective engagement rather than broad risk-on behavior, with investors favoring large-cap quality, defensives, and rate-sensitive sectors. The pattern suggested caution ahead of earnings season rather than confidence in a strong growth acceleration.
Geopolitics: Global tensions remain a background constraint, not a catalyst
 Key geopolitical themesâincluding U.S.âChina strategic competition and ongoing regional conflictsâremained unchanged during the session. While not triggering immediate volatility, these risks continued to cap medium-term risk appetite and influence sector-level positioning.
Corporate Focus: Earnings visibility and cost discipline stay in focus
 Market attention increasingly shifted toward upcoming corporate earnings, with investors prioritizing guidance clarity, margin resilience, and cost control. Companies with predictable cash flows and conservative outlooks continued to command a valuation premium.
Systemic View: Markets signal stabilization rather than a decisive risk-on shift
 Across asset classes, price action continued to reflect stabilization and differentiation rather than a synchronized move toward higher risk. Financial conditions remained supportive, but investors stayed disciplined, awaiting clearer confirmation from data and earnings before adjusting exposure meaningfully.
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Upcoming News
Markets head into Wednesday with a high-conviction, inflation-led setup, as U.S. CPI becomes the defining macro catalyst for near-term FX, rates, and equity direction. Overall market sense is cautious but highly reactive, with positioning tightened after last weekâs labour data and ahead of todayâs inflation print. Volatility is expected to concentrate sharply around the CPI release window, with USD, front-end rates, gold, and equity index futures most sensitive to surprises in core inflation and services components.
In the United States, attention is squarely on headline and core CPI, with markets focused less on energy-driven swings and more on services inflation, shelter dynamics, and supercore trends. A downside surprise in core CPI would reinforce confidence that disinflation is reasserting itself, supporting expectations for Fed easing later in 2026 and pressuring the dollar. Conversely, sticky services inflation could trigger a swift repricing higher in yields and a defensive USD bid, even if the headline remains contained.
Across Europe, the data calendar is light, leaving EUR largely reactive to U.S. yield differentials and cross-currency flows. In AsiaâPacific, Japanâs machinery and activity indicators provide incremental growth colour but are unlikely to override U.S.-driven price action. China remains headline-driven, with policy support narratives acting as a background influence on regional risk sentiment. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that CPI dominates the session narrative.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | đ´ Red News | Japan | Core Machinery Orders (m/m) | Capex signal; JPY sensitivity via growth expectations |
| 20:30 | đ´ Red News | United States | CPI (m/m, y/y) | Primary inflation catalyst; USD, rates, equities |
| 20:30 | đ´ Red News | United States | Core CPI (m/m, y/y) | Underlying inflation trend; Fed path implications |
| All day | đś Stress / Headlines | Global | CPI-driven volatility / policy commentary | Can amplify intraday price swings |
Snapshot – End 13.01.2026
G7 FX
- DXY: 99.174 (+0.29%)
- GBP/USD: 1.34229 (+0.01%)
- EUR/USD: 1.16392 (â0.02%)
- USD/JPY: 159.244 (+0.11%)
- USD/CHF: 0.80134 (+0.04%)
- EUR/GBP: 0.86710 (â0.04%)
- USD/CAD: 1.38920 (+0.01%)
- AUD/USD: 0.66826 (+0.02%)
- NZD/USD: 0.57359 (0.00%)
Metals
- Gold: 4,606.165 (+0.44%)
- Silver: 88.0226 (+1.28%)
- Copper: 6.05313 (+0.33%)
Global Indices
- S&P 500: 6,966.99 (+0.03%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 6,033.44 (+0.08%)
- Dow Jones: 49,190.98 (â0.02%)
- VIX: 16.574 (0.00%)
- CAC 40: 8,347.21 (â0.14%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,741.95 (â0.18%)
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: 95,457 (+0.10%)
- ETH/USD: 3,328.0 (+0.14%)
- SOL/USD: 145.30 (â0.08%)
- OP/USD: 0.368 (+0.27%)
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This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen