MARKET REPORT
Review:
– BTC up 4%
– Soft Durable Goods led by Boeing
– Consumer Confidence stalls
– Richmond Fed improves
– Hot Japanese CPI
– Fed’s Bowman tows usual line
– BoE’s Ramsden says MPC could unwind APF fully
– AAPL cancels electric car effort
– HES-CVX merger under threat
– OPEC reportedly to extend production cuts
– ZM impresses;
– Skepticism cast on a Gaza truce deal
– Equities mixed, Treasuries mixed, Crude up, Dollar flat.
– 2 men convicted of killing Run DMC’s Jam Master Jay, 22yr post death
– Michigan Primary in spotlight
DOLLAR DX: UNCH:
– AUD UNCH: 65.43 UNCH (65.58 – 65.33) muted, close mid range
– EUR UNCH: 92.17 UNCH (92.01 – 92.28) muted, close mid range
– GBP UNCH: 126.84 UNCH (126.62 – 126.97) close off highs
– JPY UNCH: 150.49 UNCH (150.13 – 150.58) close off highs
GOLD UNCH: $2039 UNCH ($2048 – $2038) muted, close lows
DOW/ES/ND: 39000 UNCH, 5090 UNCH, 18000 UNCH
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH: +2000/+4% 56700, +61/+2% 3250
CRUDE up: $78.52 +1.2% ($77.18 – $78.90) close off highs
Upcoming:
AU CPI
EZ Consumer Confidence (Final)
US GDP (2nd)
PCE Prices Prelim (Q4)
JAP Retail Sales
Speakers:
Fed: Bostic, Collins, Williams
BoE: Mann
Earnings: Holcim, Reckitt, Taylor Wimpey, HP
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar index was flat on Tuesday and within tight parameters, highlighted by a trough of 103.60 and a peak of 103.92, as participants await the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation of US PCE (Jan) on Thursday, not to mention the flash European inflation figures (Feb) also on Thursday.
Durable Goods orders fall 6.1% (prev. -0.3%, exp. -4.5%), which was largely due to a plunge in aircraft orders, Richmond Fed survey improved, albeit still remaining in negative territory, and Consumer Confidence fell, which interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy.
Fed Bowman (voter) reiterated she will remain cautious on monpol, while Barr (voter) said nothing of note. Regarding month-end, Credit Agricole points to USD selling across the board with the strongest sell signal in the case of the USD vs CAD and AUD. Citi are also flagging Dollar selling into month-end.
No call
1 –
AUD:
AUD/USD hit a high of 0.6558, but failed to hold above its 100DMA at 0.6555 and was unable to test its 200DMA at 0.6561.
AUD UNCH: 65.43 UNCH (65.58 – 65.33) close mid range
No call
6-
GBP:
Cable was subdued, BoE’s Ramsden said the MPC could unwind the Asset Purchase Facility fully, in what would mark a shift from the Federal Reserve, if it judged necessary for policy reasons.
GBP UNCH: 126.84 UNCH (126.62 – 126.97) close off highs
No call
12-
EUR
Goldman’s FX spot desk believes vol could shake up when we get the European inflation data this Thursday, “After the position cleanse in both rates and FX we find ourselves at much more attractive levels to short EURUSD… Our bias would be to lean short EURUSD at a level better than the 200 DMA (1.0820) looking for acceleration through 1.0790 should the figures miss.” The desk does caveat that month-end flows could muddy the picture on the Dollar side, where it suggests shorting EURAUD above 1.65 as an alternative, “should you wish to insulate a Euro short over US PCE and month end Dollar gyrations.”
EUR UNCH: 92.17 UNCH (92.01 – 92.28) close mid range
No call
9-
YEN:
Yen was firmer after hotter-than-expected CPI, although core figures still saw declines, which saw USD/JPY hit a low of 150.09, but unable to break 150.00 to the downside.
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
A muted session say a gradual grind off of the Yellow material. Si ground from $22.70 to close on lows at $22.44.
GOLD UNCH: $2039 UNCH ($2048 – $2039) close off lows
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.17% 5,078
– NDX +0.21% 17,971
– DJIA -0.25% 38,792
– RUT +1.34% 2,056
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.76% 17,556.49
– FTSE 100: -0.02% 7,683.02
– CAC 40: +0.23% 7,948.40
– Euro Stoxx 50: +0.48% 4,887.45
SECTORS (W to S): Utilities +1.89%, Communication Services +1.03%, Materials +0.35%, Financials +0.27%, Consumer Discretionary +0.19%, Industrials +0.12%, Technology +0.06%, Real Estate +0.04%, Consumer Staples -0.02%, Health -0.27%, Energy -0.43%
STOCKS:
– Zoom +8%: Earnings beat and authorised USD 1.5bln share buyback. Q1 and FY profit view surpassed expectations.
– Lowe’s +2%: EPS, revenue, and comp. SSS beat, although FY outlook disappointed.
– Macy’s +3.5%: Profit beat with SSS declining not as much as forecasted. Revenue missed, next quarter guidance short, and is to close 150 underproductive locations through 2026.
– Microsoft flat: EU regulators are probing whether MSFT is preventing its customers from buying security software that competes with MSFT, according to The Information citing sources.
– Apple +1%: Cancelling effort to build electric car and is to shift many car project workers to generative AI effort and some car employees to be cut, according to Bloomberg sources.
– American Air +1.5%: Nears deal for about 100 narrowbody jets that tilts more towards Airbus than Boeing; order likely to be finalized within weeks, but deal is still being negotiated, according to Bloomberg.
– Warner Bros. Discovery +2%: Reportedly halts merger talks with Paramount, according to CNBC. Comcast is not interested in acquiring PARA assets but would consider commercial partnerships, like bundling or merging Peacock and Paramount+.
– Intel -0.5%: Aims to deliver chips for 100mln AI PCs by 2025, according to Nikkei; expects to deliver 40mln AI PCs this year and 60mln next year. Working with Microsoft (MSFT) to ‘define’ the AI PC.
– JPMorgan flat: CFO doesn’t expect office loan space within CRE to get better any time soon. Expects IB fees to climb in the low-to-mid teens percentage in Q1 and sees trading revenue declining 5-10% in Q1 vs. a strong quarter last year.
– Hess -3% Chevron -1.5%: Chevron’s USD 53bln acquisition of Hess faces potential disruption as rivals ExxonMobil (XOM) and CNOOC (883 HK) claim pre-emptive rights over Chevron’s stake in the crucial Guyana oil project.
OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLED USD 1.29 HIGHER AT 78.87/BBL; BRENT (K2) SETTLED USD 0.99 HIGHER AT 82.66/BBL
Oil prices were firmer on Tuesday with reports OPEC is to extend its production cuts whilst scepticism has been cast on a Gaza truce deal. WTI (J4) and Brent (K4) futures settled at session peaks, coming on the back of Reuters reporting OPEC+ is considering extending voluntary oil output cuts into Q2, which is “likely”, and may extend them until year-end, which is “possible”. Meanwhile, Israel, Hamas, and mediators have expressed caution about the progress on a truce in Gaza despite President Biden saying a ceasefire could be reached in under a week. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco announced it had added significant volumes to proven gas and condensate reserves at the Jafurah field, where proven reserves have increased by 15tln cubic feet of raw gas and 2bln stock tank bbls of condensate. Libya’s NOC Chair announced oil production is now around 1.25mln BPD, up from 1.212mln BPD on February 12th. Vitol CEO commented that the oil market is less fragile than it has been in recent years, and that the market feels comfortable around USD 80/bbl; Vitol also said the impact of EV sales on oil demand within OECD nations is around 500k BPD, noting that oil demand has a number of years worth of upside to go before hitting a plateau. Traders now look to the weekly US energy inventory data with crude stocks seen building 2.7mln bbls, gasoline drawing 1.5mln bbls, and distillates drawing 2.1mln bbls. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.4 UNCH US 6-MO 5.342 -0.008 US 1-YR 5.029 -0.003 US 5-YR 4.311 -0.003 US 10-YR 4.303 +0.003 US 30-YR 4.428 +0.01
2YR/10YR -0.39
CRYPTO:
Crypto Surge. 56500 Morning highs continued touching 57500 before settling at 57k even. The surge began 9pm last night when we went from 54.5 to 56.5.
BTC outperformed ETH ‘closing’ up 4% vs ETH +2%, touching 3290 to 3210 before ‘closing’ 3250.
Expect the surge to continue and we see 60k+ handle shortly.
Buy dip, go with move upward.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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