Market in Review 2/21/2024


– FOMC Minutes:
– altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.
– indicated a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation
– officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy while saying that the policy rate is likely at the peak of its cycle
– two policy makers noticed dangers of extended peak, others expressed concerns of premature easing
– Future policy depend on; data, evolving outlook and balance of risks
– Funds were unchanged 5.25/5.5 in Jan, per expectations
– Fed Funds indicate no cut Mar & May 53% likelihood cut in June
– 10yr Treasury yield rose to 4.3% on back of Minutes.
– Gold pares losses=down small, Dollar UNCH, Equities down lead by ND, Crude +1%
– NVDA -3% (Earnings)
– Woeful 20yr bond auction
– Boeing outs head 737 Jetliner program
– Indian farmers clash with police in mass protest
– German govt slashes growth forecast.

Market In Review 08/2022

The USA is on holidays today so it should be a quiet start to the week. Data wise, there is a bunch of PMI’s out this week from Europe and USA. Personally I do not put a lot of weighting on PMIs as they are only a survey of expectations, not hard data of what has actually been manufactured or serviced. Also, there is the Kiwi Central Bank meeting, with the RBNZ expected to raise again to 1%.

Market In Review 07/2022

The USA inflation numbers printed the highest in 40 years at 7.5%, which the market took as a near certainty of a rate rise. This was reinforced by the US Fed member Bullard voicing extremely hawkish comments later that day. The odds of a rate rise of 50 basis points at the next Fed meeting shot up to 70%. The market was even pricing in a 25% chance of a 25 bp move before the next Fed meeting in March, a chance this week in fact.