MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Buers Van Berlage
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) – which provides a snapshot of where the U.S. economy is heading in the short-term – fell by 0.6% in July to 100.4, following a decline of 0.2% in June. Wall Street estimated a drop of 0.4%. Over the six-month period ending last month, the LEI fell by 2.1% – a smaller rate of decline than its -3.1% over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024
– Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million:
– Bowman repeats rate cuts appropriate if inflation keeps slowing
COMPANIES:
– Trump will be able to start selling bits and pieces of his $2.6 billion ownership in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. next month
– Netflix hits record high
– KR announced USD 10.5bln issuance to fund ACI acquisition
GENERAL:
– Kamala releases economic plan: 28% corporate tax, price-controls, 44.6% capital-gains tax, a tax on unrealized gains
– equity valuations are still at historic highs
– economic data remains vulnerable
– monetary policy is getting increasingly tight on real terms (real Fed funds rate recently hit its highest since 2007)
– September has been a seasonally bad month for stocks (The S&P 500 has fallen during the period for four straight years, and in seven of the past 10)
– geopolitical tensions are still high
– options markets are still pricing in the potential for short-term chaos amid a heavy calendar of risk catalysts including Powell’s address at Jackson Hole, NVDA earnings, NFP, CPI, and OpEx
– three-fourths of investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points when policymakers next meet on Sept. 17-18
– EU cuts planned tariff on imports of TSLA EVs from China
– Gaza ceasefire talks continue, with chances of a positive outcome declining.
– Cheese smoked (bazinga) again -6.32%, Corn -6.22%, Wheat -3.35%, Oats +5.84% Cocoa +3.86%
– Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down
DOLLAR DX down: 101.38 -0.5% (102.00 – 101.36) LOWS
– AUD up: 67.47 +.2% (67.14 – 67.50) HIGHS
– EUR down: 89.83 -0.4% (90.29 – 89.82) LOWS
– GBP up: 130.31 +0.35% (129.75 – 130.52) HIGHS
– JPY down: 145.13 -0..96% (147.32 – 145.12) LOWS
Coming Up:
– The minutes of July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due on Wednesday, followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.
Earnings:
– Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys.
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar Index edged lower for the third consecutive day, during a quiet session regarding newsflow. That said, Fed’s Bowman (Voter) reiterated past hawkish commentary, saying “should inflation data show inflation is moving sustainably toward the target, it will become appropriate to gradually lower rates to prevent becoming overly restrictive”, adding, “still sees upside risks to inflation”, and “will remain cautious in the approach to any change in policy stance”. The index descended further into the 101 handle, setting a low of 101.39, with the YTD low of 101.29 in view.
FOMC Minutes (Wed), Fed Pricing has 32bps of rate cuts priced in at the September meeting and 97bps by year-end.
DOLLAR DX down: 101.38 -0.5% (102.00 – 101.36) LOWS
EUR/GBP
Data in the region saw Final HCIP EZ data for July in line with expectations, while the EU Current Account SA (Jun) printed a record high. Going forward, Rabobank sees upside risks for EUR/USD likely to be associated with a softer USD rather than a broadly stronger EUR.
EUR down: 89.83 -0.4% (90.29 – 89.82) LOWS
GBP up: 130.31 +0.35% (129.75 – 130.52) HIGHS
AUD:
The Aussie is firmer on the session after RBA minutes unveiled that the board considered the case to raise rates, and possible the cash rate would have to stay steady for an extended period.
AUD up: 67.47 +.2% (67.14 – 67.50) HIGHS
YEN:
Firmest of the majors:
JPY down: 145.13 -0..96% (147.32 – 145.12) LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
New record:
Gold prices dipped Monday, a session after smashing through the $2,500 per ounce ceiling and establishing a new all-time high as investors eyed the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later in the week for signals on interest rate cuts.
Gold slipped to $2,501 per ounce in early trading, down $4.39. A session earlier on Friday, the yellow metal rocketed to a new all-time high of $2,509 per ounce as investors took advantage of its safe-haven appeal due to deteriorating conditions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar.
Silver, meanwhile, continued to build on momentum from Friday’s session, trading at $29.40 per ounce, up $0.43 for a gain of 1.5%.
GOLD UP: $2546 +2.15% (2489 – 2547) HIGHS
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -0.36% at 18,355
– FTSE 100: -1.00% at 8,273
– CAC 40: -0.22% at 7,486
– ES 50: -0.30% at 4,858
US:
– SPX -0.20% at 5,597
– NDX -0.24% at 19,720
– DJIA -0.15% at 40,835
– RUT -1.17% at 2,142
Sectors (W to S): Energy -2.65%, Materials -0.38%, Financials -0.33%, Technology -0.32%, Industrials -0.29%, Utilities -0.25%, Consumer Discretionary -0.02%, Communication Services +0.03%, Real Estate +0.06%, Health +0.37%, Consumer Staples +0.53%.
BONDS:
Treasury yields down today (6-7bps across the curve)
Long-end (10Y and 30Y) has erased all of the CPI-spike from last week.
Most notably, the 2Y yield tumbled back below 4.00% (after CPI sent yields back up to pre-payrolls levels):
OIL:
Oil prices limped lower once again (5th day of the last 6)
CRYPTO
– Punch above 60k but sold back below today
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8cgatbVp7cI
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw_WfN2nZ9U
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOm7Gr-1BUc
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
