MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Buers Van Berlage
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ROSE to 67.8 August, EXP 66.9, PREV 66.4 in July
– Housing Starts fell off a cliff -6.8% MoM vs -1.5% EXP
– Housing Permits plunged -4.0% MoM vs -2%
– June’s starts print was revised lower while permits June print was revised higher
– Dovish Goolsbee, who warns caution
COMPANIES:
– NVDA hits 4-week high.
– in the last 12 months, it increased 186.64%.
GENERAL:
– Harris unveils economic (central?) plan
– Euro Bourses close higher
– China launched a low-orbit satellite constellation capable of surveilling every corner of the earth
– the first batch of 18 satellites in the constellation dubbed “Qianfan” or “thousand sails” was launched into orbit by state-controlled Shanghai Yuxin Satellite Technology Company on Aug. 6. The entire project is a future network of 14,000 satellites
– Democratic convention coming up
– Lumbar near 11-week high
– Corn -6.79%, Cheese -5.5% (Huh, Cheese!? Yurp), Cocoa +4.72%, Nat Gas -3.05%
– Equities flat/up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down
DOLLAR DX down: 102.44 -0.53% (102.97 – 102.43) LOWS
– AUD UP: 66.69 +0.9% (66.22 – 66.73) HIGHS
– EUR down: 90.68 -0.46% (91.08 – 90.68) LOWS
– GBP up: 129.43 +0.7% (128.67 – 129.47) HIGHS
– JPY DOWN: 147.59 -1.13% (149.08 – 147.56) LOWS
GOLD UP: $2546 +2.15% (2489 – 2547) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up: 40809 +0.3%, 5580 +0.23%, 19609 +0.14%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP/up: 59376 +5.59%, 2615 +3.34%
CRUDE down: $76.70 -1.88% (78.00 – 75.55) MID
Coming Up:
– Jackson Hole, FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, Canadian and Japanese CPI, and Flash PMI data
Speakers:
– Fed’s Waller
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was lower to end the week and hit a trough of 102.450, as the Greenback unwound some of the gains seen after Thursday’s data.
Newsflow on Friday was light amid typical summer trading conditions, with the highlight out of the US either Fed’s Goolsbee, repeating his cautious stance, or prelim UoM (Aug) surpassing consensus with inflation expectations left unchanged.
Housing stars disappointed, which saw the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker ease to 2.0% from 2.4%.
Ahead, FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium are the highlights next week, with the latter concluding with Powell on Friday at 10:00EDT:15:00EST
DOLLAR DX down: 102.44 -0.53% (102.97 – 102.43) LOWS
EUR/GBP
EUR down: 90.68 -0.46% (91.08 – 90.68) LOWS
GBP up: 129.43 +0.7% (128.67 – 129.47) HIGHS
AUD:
AUD UP: 66.69 +0.9% (66.22 – 66.73) HIGHS
YEN:
JPY DOWN: 147.59 -1.13% (149.08 – 147.56) LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold rose above $2,490 per ounce on Friday, the highest on record, amid strong demand for safe-haven assets as markets continued to assess the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve.
White House officials warned that a retaliatory strike from Iran in Isreal could happen in the coming days, as signaled by Tehran following Israel’s attack on Hamas officials in Iranian territory.
Additionally, concerns of escalation in Ukraine and Russia were also heeded as Ukrainian forces advanced in Russian territory.
On the economic front, both housing starts and building permits in the US fell to four-year lows in July, signaling that restrictive monetary policy may be having a larger impact on the outlook of housing supply.
Markets continued to show a broad consensus on 100bps in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve throughout their three remaining decisions this year, although strong the retail sales release has driven investors to pare bets of a stronger 50bps cut next month.
Gold increased to an all-time high of 2493.00 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold gained 1.26%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 31.95%
GOLD UP: $2546 +2.15% (2489 – 2547) HIGHS
EQUITIES:
– Nasdaq rallied up to a key technical resistance level – at its 50DMA and the last July high
EUR:
– DAX +0.80% 18,329
– FTSE -0.43% 8,311
– CAC +0.35% 7,450
– ES50 +0.71% 4,841
US:
– SPX +0.20% 5,554
– NDX +0.09% 19,508
– DJIA +0.24% 40,659
– RUT +0.27% 2141
Sectors (W to S): Financials +0.62%, Utilities +0.4%, Technology +0.26%, Communication Services +0.21%, Consumer Staples +0.19%, Consumer Discretionary +0.14%, Materials +0.12%, Health +0.03%, Real Estate -0.04%, Energy -0.14%, Industrials -0.19%
OIL:
– Libya’s Waha Oil Company said it is expecting to return to normal level within the coming hours. On that, the Co. reported it has finished maintenance and pumping started from the field to ES-Sider port (250k BPD capacity).
Regarding geopolitics, the Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha ended, but they are set to resume next week with Israel sending a delegation to Cairo on Sunday ahead of another Doha summit next weekend. On the talks that concluded today, Senior US admin official said the talks to end the Gaza conflict were very constructive and negotiators believe they have a deal ready to go, with talks in Cairo next week aimed at concluding a deal. In addition, via NYT citing sources, Iran is expected to delay planned reprisals against Israel for the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Tehran to allow mediators time to make a high-stakes push for a cease-fire to end the war in Gaza.
In the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil fell 2 to 483, nat gas rose 1 to 98, leaving the total down 2 to 586.
WTI and Brent saw weakness through the EZ morning to hit session lows of USD 74.52/bbl and 78.62/bbl, respectively, before recovering through the US afternoon to settle well within the days ranges. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE down: $76.70 -1.88% (78.00 – 75.55) MID
BONDS:
– Weakness at the short-end (+1bps) of the Treasury curve on the week (but the long-end ended 7bps lower on the week):
– The yield curve flattened significantly on the week, with 2s10s re-inverting
US 1-MO 5.363 +0.003
US 6-MO 4.977 -0.029
US 1-YR 4.497 -0.034
US 5-YR 3.757 -0.042
US 10-YR 3.883 -0.043
US 30-YR 4.138 -0.042
2YR/10YR -0.017 UNCH
CRYPTO
– recent market action was driven by people putting too much weight on macro factors like jobs data and the yen carry trade unwinding, saying “sometimes people forget there are use cases for blockchain, which is making the remittance and global transactions faster and also cheaper.”
In terms of the potential for legislation to be passed this year, Lau says: “I’m optimistic that there will be more regulatory clarity in 2025, but getting passed the bill this year, if I have to assign a probability, I would only assign a 20% chance at this point.”
– Oppenheimer executive director and senior analyst Owen Lau
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP/up: 59376 +5.59%, 2615 +3.34%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eGnp9LYr9RE
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-83qrKGZ3ps
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWCINJ8uvIc&t=36s
Cover-up of the day:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1823914264496890156
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
