MARKET REPORT
Review:
– ALL EYES CPI TOM
– AUD Hits 4-week high
– CAD stocks hit record high
– US Economic Optimism Index Falls. Exp 44.2 Act 43.2
– CAC closes at 4-week low
– FED’s BOSTIC: IF JOB DATA SIGNALS PAIN TO COME, OPEN TO EARLIER CUTS
– BOSTIC: IF DISINFLATION PACE RESUMES, COULD PULL CUTS FORWARD
– BOSTIC: CPI COMING IN AT CONSENSUS WOULD BE WELCOME DEVELOPMENT
– BOSTIC: POSSIBLE MAY NEED TO DELAY CUTS “EVEN FURTHER OUT”
– FED’s Brainard expects steady progress on inflation
– INTC reveals new AI chip to challenge Nvidia dominance
– FAA investigates claims by BA whistleblower
– BoJ said to consider raising its inflation forecast
– Equities up, Treasures up, Crude down, Dollar flat.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.90 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
– AUD up: 66.28 +0.39% (Data Unavailable) DA
– EUR UNCH: 92.08 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
– GBP up: 126.78 +0.2% (Data Unavailable) DA
– JPY UNCH: 151.76 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
GOLD up (surprise): $2371 +0.9% (Data Unavailable) DA
DOW/ES/ND Mixed: 39224 UNCH, 5265 +0.2%, 18381 +0.5%
CRYPTO Down: BTC/ETH: BTC -2886/-4% 68967, ETH -190/-5% 3500
CRUDE Down: $85.22 -$1.21/-1.4%
Upcoming:
US CPI
US CPI PREVIEW: US headline CPI is seen rising +0.3% M/M in March (prev. 0.4%), and the annual rate is seen rising to 3.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.2%). Core CPI is expected to rise by +0.3% M/M in March (prev. +0.4%), though the annual rate of core CPI is seen easing to 3.7% Y/Y (prev. 3.8%). “Headline CPI inflation probably continued to rebound in March, but we expect the details to show that the downward trend in core inflation is getting back on track,” Capital Economics said. The upside in January and February CPI readings was underpinned by a rise in owners’ equivalent rent and core goods prices, but CapEco thinks they were one-offs, and adds that there is not much to suggest that recent disruptions in global shipping were having any significant macro impact, so CapEco expects core goods prices to continue falling. Analysts will also be watching the sub-components; in February, the Services less rent of shelter prices rose +0.6% M/M (matching the rate seen in January).
Speakers:
US Fed: Bowman, Barkin, Goolsbee
MAJORS:
DX:
Choppy with DXY trading either side of 104.00, between 103.87 and 104.21, with all eyes turning to the US CPI report on Wednesday to help determine whether the hot January and February inflation reports were more than just a bump in the road. Attention will also be on the FOMC minutes released after CPI.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.90 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
No call before CPI
AUD:
Antipodes saw mild gains vs. the Dollar continuing their outperformance from Monday with AUD/USD holding above 0.6600 while NZD/USD hovers around 0.6050. AUD/NZD saw narrow trade with the RBNZ taking focus overnight.
AUD up: 66.28 +0.39% (Data Unavailable) DA
No call pre CPI
GBP
The Pound was flat vs. the Dollar but marginally firmer against the Euro with local traders awaiting GDP numbers on Friday, alongside the other major macro events throughout the week (US CPI, FOMC Minutes, BoC, ECB, RBNZ).
GBP up: 126.78 +0.2% (Data Unavailable) DA
No call pre CPI
EUR
The Euro was flat vs. the Buck hovering around 1.0850 with participants awaiting key risk events such as the aforementioned US CPI and the ECB policy announcement on Thursday.
EUR UNCH: 92.08 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
No call pre CPI
YEN:
Yen was also ultimately flat but there was some volatility on Bloomberg source reports that the BoJ is said to be considering raising its inflation forecast after the surprisingly strong results from the annual wage negotiations with participants cognizant to add any direction with conviction given CPI on Wednesday.
JPY UNCH: 151.76 UNCH (Data Unavailable) DA
No call pre CPI
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold continues to make new highs on the back of FOMO and concern over Fed cuts with sticky-flation.
Where she stops, nobody knows. JP Morgan calling for $3000 end of year.
GOLD up (surprise): $2371 +0.9% (Data Unavailable) DA
No call pre CPI
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.14% 5,209
– NDX +0.39% 18,169
– DJIA -0.02% 38,883
– RUT +0.34% 2,080
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -1.32% 18,078
– FTSE: -0.11% 7,935
– CAC: -0.86% 8,049
– ES50: -0.76% 4,989
SECTORS (S to W): Real Estate +1.29%, Utilities +0.55%, Consumer Staples +0.51%, Consumer Discretionary +0.46%, Health +0.39%, Materials +0.27%, Technology +0.16%, Communication Services +0.11%, Energy +0.06%, Industrials -0.22%, Financials -0.5%.
STOCKS
– Boeing -2%: FAA investigates claims by Boeing (BA) whistle-blower about flaws in the 787 Dreamliner, according to New York Times.
– Intel +1%: Reveals details of new AI chip to fight Nvidia (NVDA) dominance.
– Nvidia -2%: UBS analyst note was doing the rounds, and it had some cautious comments on Nvidia’s (NVDA) October/Q3 report, also saying sentiment on semis is as optimistic as “I can ever remember”.
– General Motors +1%: Self-driving car unit, Cruise, plans to resume testing robotaxis.
– Microsoft +0.5%: To reportedly invest USD 2.9bln in Japanese data centres amid AI boom.
– Google +1%: Expands in-house chip efforts and is to roll out new hardware in costly AI battle. In addition, with Google’s Cloud event over the coming days, there has been a slew of deals announced. One of the highlights, Broadcom is to migrate VMware workloads to Google Cloud.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 1.20 LOWER AT 85.23/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 0.96 LOWER AT 89.42/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Tuesday and settled at session lows as there was no material escalation in Middle East tensions as ceasefire talks seemingly continue, albeit with little progress. The latest update via Axios said that Israeli Defence Minister Galant told US Secretary of Defence Austin that Israel has not yet set a date for Rafah operation, seemingly a contradiction to what PM Netanyahu said on Monday. Elsewhere, oil giant BP (BP/ LN) said upstream production in Q1 is expected to be higher Q/Q, while the EIA STEO saw 2024 world oil demand growth cut by 480k BPD to a 0.95mln BPD Y/Y increase; 2025 cut by 30k BPD to a 1.35mln BPD. Ahead, the weekly private inventory data will be released after-hours (expectations below) before the weekly EIA data on Wednesday. Crude (exp. +2.4mln), Gasoline (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate (exp. -1.2mln). Oil report courtesy of newsquark
CRUDE Down: $85.22 -$1.21/-1.4%
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.375 +0.01
US 6-MO 5.321 -0.008
US 1-YR 5.055 -0.03
US 5-YR 4.375 -0.059
US 10-YR 4.362 -0.062
US 30-YR 4.496 -0.057
2YR/10YR -0.38
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin and ether dropped 4%, while SOL and DOGE lost 6%-7% in the past 24 hours.
– The move lower triggered the largest amount of leveraged long liquidations in a week, CoinGlass data show.
– The drop echoed through the crypto markets, with the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index losing 3.2% in the same period
– The declines led to almost $200 million worth of leveraged derivatives trading positions being liquidated across all digital assets as of 15:45 UTC
– The overwhelming majority, some $175 million worth of positions, were longs betting on prices to rise. This was the largest daily leveraged long flush in a week, the data show, suggesting that leveraged traders were caught off-guard.
– “Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, finding support amidst a period of consolidation,” Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group “The daily chart hints at a potential lower top around $71,800, suggesting the possibility of corrective price action before a fresh attempt at record highs.”
CRYPTO Down: BTC/ETH: BTC -2886/-4% 68967, ETH -190/-5% 3500
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.
As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
