Market in Review 4/5/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:

– US NFP Highest in 10 months (It’s ALL P/T, F/T actually decreased & 50% + Gov/Health)
– Exp 200k Act 303k
– Feb revised down from 275k to 270k
– Jan revised up net Jan/Feb +22k

– The rate was Exp Unch at 3.9% came in at 3.8%

the bulk of jobs was in Education/Health and Government jobs, which accounted for more than half of all March jobs.

the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March to the highest level in almost two years, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
– average hourly earnings came in as expected, rising 0.3% MoM, up from last month’s upward revised 0.2% sequential increase (revised from 0.1%), On an annual basis, the hourly earnings rose 4.1%, as expected, and down from 4.3%. This was the lowest print in almost three years: the last time wages rose by this much was the summer of 2021.

– In sum: health care added 72,000 jobs; government roles increased by 71,000; other notable gains were construction, adding 39,000, and leisure and hospitality, adding 49,000.

Finally, for those wondering if the jobs were all part-time, the answer is a resounding yes: in March, full-time jobs dropped by 6,000 as Part-time jobs soared by 691,000.

– CAD unemployment jumps to 2yr high Exp 5.9% Act 6.1%
– Exp +25k Act -2k
– TSX hits all time high

– Treasury yields hit Nov highs post NFP

– Euro bourses all close the week lower

– NYC/NJ 4.8 Earthquake

– US Credit card debt surges to all time high whilst avg IR charged hits new record of 21.59%

– Oil and Gold SOAR on the week as Rate cut hopes dashed.

– VIX jumped most since Aug 2023

– Israel and US convinced Iran is preparing to retaliate for Israeli strike

– Musk denies TSLA is to scrap low cost car plans

DOLLAR DX up small: 104.07        +0.17% (103.92 – 104.46) MID Low
– AUD UNCH: 65.83                         UNCH (65.92 – 65.50) Off Highs
– EUR UNCH: 92.26                         Unch (92.17 – 92.63) Off Lows
– GBP UNCH: 126.35                       UNCH (126.44 – 125.76) Off Highs
– JPY up small: 151.64                    UNCH (150.99 – 151.74) Off Highs

GOLD UP: $2341                              +1.44% ($2295 – $2349) Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND UP:                             39246 +0.85%, 5255 +1.15%, 18302 +1.27%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down:               -1032/-1.50% 67420, -46/-1.37% 3322
CRUDE up small: $86.67                +0.1%/+$0.08 ($86.36 – $87.60) Mid

Upcoming:

US FOMC Minutes & Inflation, Michigan Consumer Confidence, Producer Prices, Import/Export Prices & Fed Speak

EU, CAD & NZ IR decisions

CHI consumer & producer prices, trade data, Yuan loans

UK Feb GDP

AUD NAB bus confidence, Westpac consumer confidence

JAP consumer confidence

Speakers:

MAJORS:

DX:
The Dollar saw two-way price action on Friday with the very strong jobs report initially sending DXY to a peak of 104.70 before paring throughout the rest of the session to the largely unchanged mark. The hot report is unlikely to alter Fed calculus too much given Fed Chair Powell has suggested a strong jobs market would not be a reason to delay Fed rate cuts. Nonetheless, in wake of the data Fed’s Logan (hawk) said it is too soon to think about cutting rates but said that the inflation data is more important than labour market data. Governor Bowman (hawk) also said it is not yet time to consider cutting rates.

DOLLAR DX up small: 104.07        +0.17% (103.92 – 104.46) MID Low

No call

AUD:
Antipodes saw marginal weakness but finished the session well off the post-NFP lows as the Dollar lost its high ground and as equity markets rallied.

AUD UNCH: 65.83                           UNCH (65.92 – 65.50) Off Highs

No call

GBP
Unchanged vs Buck and Euro after initial Dollar strength over NFP faded.

GBP UNCH: 126.35                         UNCH (126.44 – 125.76) Off Highs

No call

EUR
German Import prices and Industrial Orders missed expectations while the EU Construction PMI fell to 42.4 from 42.9 but EU retail sales for February beat Y/Y, missed M/M. Attention now begins to focus on next Thursday’s ECB meeting.

EUR UNCH: 92.26                            Unch (92.17 – 92.63) Off Lows

No call

9-

YEN:
Slightly softer vs the buck with higher UST yields weighing on the Yen while BoJ Governor Ueda said he is not going to comment on short-term FX moves but it is important for FX rates to stably reflect fundamentals. On policy, Ueda said the BoJ will not start reducing their huge ETF holdings any time soon and there is no plan to sell the BoJ’s JREIT holdings anytime soon. However, it does hope to reduce the amount of its JGB buying and its JGB holdings in the future.

JPY up small: 151.64                       UNCH (150.99 – 151.74) Off Highs

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:
Gold soared on the week as strong data prompts fears of a pause in June. FOMO & a strong jobs market have reduced a June cut to a 50/50 chance.

GOLD UP: $2341                              +1.44% ($2295 – $2349) Off Highs

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +1.11% 5,204
– NDX +1.28% 18,108
– DJI +0.80% 38,904
– RUT +0.47% 2,063.

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: -1.30% 18,164
– FTSE: -0.81% 7,911
– CAC: -1.11% 8,061
– ES50: +0.05% 5,013

SECTORS (S to W): Communication Services +1.61%, Industrials +1.43%, Technology +1.38%, Energy +1.08%, Health +0.91%, Financials +0.89%, Consumer Discretionary +0.94%, Materials +0.92%, Real Estate +0.65%, Utilities +0.34%, Consumer Staples +0.22%.

STOCKS
Tesla -3.6%: Scraps low cost car plans amid fierce Chinese EV competition, according to Reuters sources. However, CEO Musk later replied saying “Reuters is lying, (again).”
Krispy Kreme  +7.5%: Upgraded at Piper Sandler; said Co. is on the verge of a major growth move after a deal with McDonald’s last week.

OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLES USD 0.32 HIGHER AT 86.91/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLES USD 0.52 HIGHER AT 91.17/BBL

Oil prices rallied through the US session on Friday with risk assets before a late session bout of profit-taking despite heightened geopolitical risk. Oil prices have come a long way higher on the week, and on Friday, WTI (K4) and Brent (M4) futures went on to hit new peaks of USD 87.63/bbl and 91.91/bbl, respectively, in the NY afternoon, seemingly tracking the move higher in stocks. However, there was some profit taking into the settlement, that was despite weekend risk remaining high with recent CBS reports, citing US officials, that Israel and the US are convinced Iran is preparing to retaliate for the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, and that an attack (likely via drones and missiles) is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week. Elsewhere, as previously suggested, Saudi Aramco has raised its OSPs for May, reflective of the strong rally in benchmarks. The Baker Hughes US rig count (w/e April 4th) saw oil rigs up two at 580 and Nat Gas down two at 110. Finally, be aware of a dam burst in Russia’s Orsk, which is on the border of Kazakhstan and does house some refining and pipeline facilities albeit there has been no updates on the status of those facilities since. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.

CRUDE up small: $86.67                +0.1%/+$0.08 ($86.36 – $87.60) Mid


BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.363 +0.007
US 6-MO 5.326 +0.027
US 1-YR 5.069 +0.055
US 5-YR 4.393 +0.1033
US 10-YR 4.4 +0.091
US 30-YR 4.552 +0.081

2YR/10YR -0.35

CRYPTO
– Ethereum underperformed on the week, breaking down to its weakest against bitcoin since May 2021…

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down:               -1032/-1.50% 67420, -46/-1.37% 3322

No Call

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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