Market in Review 4/26/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:

– PCE +0.8% vs Exp +0.6%
– CORE +0.3% Exp +0.3%
– Michigan Sentiment 77.2 Exp 77.9 Prev 79.4

– Yen skyrockets

– Tech stocks lead equities (again)

– Next week:
– WED Fed IR rate decision
– FRI Payrolls

DOLLAR DX up: 105.86                  +0.4% (105.33 – 106.05) Off Highs
– AUD UNCH: 65.35                         UNCH (65.55 – 65.18) MID
– EUR up: 93.42                                +0.27% (93.00 – 93.65) Off Highs
– GBP UNCH: 125.00                       UNCH (125.40 – 124.50) MID
– JPY UP: 157.86                               1.47% (155.50 – 157.87) HIGHS

GOLD up: $2351                                             +0.4% ($2364 – $2341) MID
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up:                                38433 +0.4%, 5133 +1.0%, 17851 +1.6%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down:                  -1.6% 63885, -1% 3139
CRUDE UNCH: $83.67                                   UNCH ($84.43 – $83.39) Off Lows

Upcoming:

FOMC, NFP, ISM, and PMI data

Speakers:

EARNINGS:

MAJORS:

DX:
firmer despite Core PCE printing in-line with expectations and therefore avoiding a hawkish surprise (in the context of Thursday’s hot quarterly PCE metrics). Support for the Greenback has primarily been as a result of significant JPY softness given the extent of the moves and the weighting of JPY in the Dollar index. 106.18 was the high print for the session. Next week there is a slew of risk events, namely QRA, FOMC, NFP, and continued mega-cap earnings from the likes of AMZN, AAPL, and chip-bellwether SMCI, with lots of risk from the Euro cross with German inflation figures on Monday.

DOLLAR DX up: 105.86                  +0.4% (105.33 – 106.05) Off Highs

No call

AUD:
AUD was the G10 outperformer and eked out slight gains vs. the Greenback as it benefited from broad-based commodity strength. As such, AUD/USD hit a high of 0.6554 and broke through its 200d and 50d MAs of 0.6526 and 0.6532, respectively

AUD UNCH: 65.35                           UNCH (65.55 – 65.18) MID

No call

GBP
Pound weighed on by the Dollar bid (amid the Yen weakness) as opposed to any currency-specific newsflow.

GBP UNCH: 125.00                         UNCH (125.40 – 124.50) MID

No call

EUR
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey for March saw the 12-months ahead gauge fall to 3.0% from 3.1%) and the 3-year ahead gauge left unchanged at 2.5%. Looking to next week, EZ flash CPI and GDP metrics are the highlights at the beginning of the week.

EUR up: 93.42                                  +0.27% (93.00 – 93.65) Off Highs

No call

YEN:
The clear laggard saw notable losses against the Buck

The BoJ kept rates steady, amid a lack of hawkish surprises within the release and lack of forceful commentary on the JPY by the BoJ. Subsequently, USD/JPY ascended to an interim high of 156.82 in the European morning before being slapped down in a sharp move to trade at sub-155 levels in absence of any news. That proved a dip to buy and thereafter, the pair continued its move higher through the rest of the session peaking at the close here at 157.92.
Some may view the earlier sharp move lower as an intervention, but we have not seen any official confirmation of this, and there are many analysts that argue that it appears unlikely. Some suspect these mini flash crashes may be opportunistic participants attempting to create situations that appear to others like intervention. Note, Japan is on market holiday on Monday, so be aware for any further opportunistic dips, whether it’s the BoJ or not.

JPY UP: 157.86                                 1.47% (155.50 – 157.87) HIGHS

No call

GOLD & SILVER:
Nothing of note to report.

GOLD up: $2345                                             +0.3% ($2325 – $2356) Mid

No call

EQUITIES:

US INDEXES:
– SPX +1.02% 5,099
– NDX +1.65% 17,718
– DJIA +0.40% 38,239
– RUT +1.05% 2,001

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +1.39% 18,166.91
– FTSE: +0.75% 8,139.83
– CAC: +0.89% 8,088.24
– ES50: +1.37% 5,006.65

SECTORS (W to S): Communication Services +4.7%, Technology +1.85%, Consumer Discretionary +1.32%, Materials +0.63%, Industrials +0.17%, Real Estate +0.07%, Health -0.01%, Consumer Staples -0.19%, Financials -0.2%, Energy -1.03%, Utilities -1.12%

STOCKS
– Alphabet +10%: Stellar report – all major metrics beat alongside a new USD 70bln share buyback program and its first ever dividend of USD 0.20/shr. Above forecast capital spending (positive for semiconductors).
– Intel -9%: Revenue missed with next quarter guidance short. CFO said it could have sold more AI PC processors and H1 was softer than had been expected.
– Snap +27.5%: EBITDA and EPS a surprise profit, while revenue, DAUs, and ARPU all beat. Q2 revenue guidance was also strong.
– Atlassian -9.5%: Q1 results were solid but weighed on after co-CEO decided to step down.
– Roku -10.5%: Whilst the Q1 report was decent, the Co. warned of “difficult Y/Y growth rate comparisons” within its stream service distribution activities, citing past price hikes and a shift toward ad-supported streamers.
– Microsoft +2%: EPS, revenue, and key revenue segments (cloud) topped, accompanied by upbeat commentary from the CFO. Note, Q4 guidance was actually slightly light, although the key Azure guidance impressed.

OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLED USD 0.28 HIGHER AT 83.85/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 0.49 HIGHER AT 89.50/BBL

Oil futures were modestly firmer in choppy trade on Friday, affirming a W/W gain for the first time in three weeks. WTI and Brent futures hit session peaks of USD 84.46/bbl and 89.93/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning, but failed to extend from there, chopping for the rest of the session. In terms of newsflow, Russia’s Energy Minister Shulginov said, via Interfax, that oil output and refining have not been affected by the floods in Russian regions; the energy ministry also reaffirmed Russia’s oil and gas output targets for the year of 240mln T and 666.7 BCM, respectively. In the Middle East, production has been suspended at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field (106k BPD) after a drone attack, according to advisor to KRG PM, with some casualties reported. In the Americas, Mexico’s Pemex reported crude and condensate production fell to 1.8mln BPD at the end of Q1 close vs 1.86mln at the end of Q4 amid operational issues. The Baker Hughes weekly rig count saw total rigs down six to 613, oil rigs down five at 506, and nat gas rigs down one at 105. And in terms of geopolitics, an Israeli official said via Channel 12 that there is a great will in the negotiations to reach an agreement but this will be the last chance before the Rafah operation commences, perhaps adding some geopolitical risk premium into the weekend. Oil report courtesy of Newsquark

CRUDE UNCH: $83.67                                   UNCH ($84.43 – $83.39) Off Lows

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.37 -0.006
US 6-MO 5.39 -0.002
US 1-YR 5.212 +0.004
US 5-YR 4.687 -0.03
US 10-YR 4.663 -0.043
US 30-YR 4.776 -0.044

2YR/10YR -0.33

CRYPTO

– Wednesday and Thursday, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which has been winning the “cointucky derby” by a margin, saw zero inflows, according to CoinGlass data.
This ended its 71-day streak of fresh investments, which totaled around $17.24 billion in assets under management since the product was approved for trading Jan. 11. Also, on Thursday, Fidelity’s FBTC, the Current runner up in the ETF race, reported losses of $22.6 million, its first reported outflow, taking its assets under management to around $9.9 billion, according to CoinGlass data

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down/down:                  -1.6% 63885, -1% 3139

No Call

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm