– Hot US retail sales Exp +0.3% Act +0.7%
– NY Fed mfg. misses
– Williams doesn’t see recent inflation data as a game changer

– Stellar GS earnings

– ECB speak in favour of June cut.

– Trump’s ‘Hush-money’ trial starts

– Israel prepares response to Iran

– Trump media stock tanks 18%

– Tesla sinks 5% on layoffs (10%)

– Don’t forget it’s Tax Day today…

– Treasury Yields up, Dollar up, Gold up

DOLLAR DX up: 106.00                  +0.15% (105.63 – 106.04) HIGHS
– AUD DOWN: 64.39                       -0.4% (64.93 – 64.39) LOWS
– EUR UP: 94.12                               +0.2% (93.74 – 94.13) HIGHS
– GBP UNCH: 124.45                       UNCH (124.97 – 124.37) LOWS
– JPY UP: 154.25                               +0.6% (153.72 – 154.43) Off Highs

GOLD UP: $2398                              +1% (2343 – 2405) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND DOWN:                     37960 -278/-0.72%, 5098 -69/-1.39%, 17861 -318/-1.75%
CRYPTO DOWN: BTC/ETH:            BTC 875/-1.36% 63250, ETH UNCH 3094
CRUDE UNCH: $85.66                    UNCH HIGHS


Chinese Retail S ales, GDP
German Wholesale Price Index & ZEW
UK Unemployment Rate
Canadian CPI
New Zealand CPI

Fed’s Daly, Jefferson, Williams, Barkin, Powell
ECB’s Rehn
BoE’s Bailey Lombardelli
BoC’s Macklem

Earnings: LVMH, United Health, UAL, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley.


Dollar was bid after a hot US retail sales report while the risk off trade on geopolitical angst also supported the buck to see DXY hit a fresh YTD peak of 106.23. Upside in US yields were also likely supportive. The peaks seen in wake of the retail sales had pared on a dovish Williams who appeared little phased by the recent inflation data, but multiple reports that an Israel response to the Iran attack helped support the buck to test those peaks again.

The dollar back up to its highest since Nov 13th – this is the biggest 4-day gain since early Feb 2023…

DOLLAR DX up: 106.00                  +0.15% (105.63 – 106.04) HIGHS

No call.

“Sell bounces go with flow look for test of 64 handle.”
Fri Mkt report

Antipodes were hit on the downbeat risk sentiment and hot retail sales data with AUD/USD falling sub 0.6450 while NZD/USD found support at 0.5900; AUD outperformed its kiwi counterpart supported by gains in metals.

AUD DOWN: 64.39                         -0.4% (64.93 – 64.39) LOWS

No call.

GBP was flat vs the buck and slightly firmer vs the Euro with participants eyeing inflation (Weds) and labour market (Tues) data due later in the week. BoE is currently priced for 50bps of rate cuts this year.

GBP UNCH: 124.45                         UNCH (124.97 – 124.37) LOWS

No call

The Euro was softer as the Dollar rose but more ECB officials affirmed commitment to a June rate cut, at odds with expectations for the Fed. ECB’s Simkus said a cut is possible in June and also in July, noting there is over a 50% chance of more than three cuts this year. Rehn and Kazmir both said the ECB can cut in June if inflation slows as expected. Lane however acknowledged there has been much less progress in relation to domestic inflation vs broader inflation measures, noting it should be recognized the current phase of disinflation is necessarily bumpy.

EUR UP: 94.12                                  +0.2% (93.74 – 94.13) HIGHS

No call

The Yen saw further pressure adding to recent peaks in USD/JPY to see the pair hit a high of 154.44. The peak was seen after the hot retail sales data in the US but it did briefly pare on Axios reports that Israel told the US it has no choice but to retaliate against Iran, but the Yen gains were short-lived, quickly rising back above 154.00, a level it resides above heading into APAC trade. There had been commentary from Senior MOF officials, noting they are in frequent and regular talks with the US and others on financial and FX market moves, we look for any more updates overnight. Elsewhere, the BoJ is reportedly shifting to a more discretionary approach in setting policy, with less emphasis on inflation, according to Reuters sources.

JPY UP: 154.25                                 +0.6% (153.72 – 154.43) Off Highs

No call


Gold prices hit a low of USD 2,324 after the hotter than expected retail sales data before paring on the aforementioned Axios reports and on WSJ reports that Israel could respond as soon as Monday. Gold rose throughout the rest of the session to hit a peak of USD 2,372/oz heading into APAC

Gold dropped early on after the retail sales print, but then ripped back as war-premium was added back…

GOLD UP: $2398                              +1% (2343 – 2405) HIGHS

No call.


Oil prices hit multi-week lows on Monday as geopolitical risk was unwound while the Dollar made new YTD peaks. Prices trundled lower into stateside trade, with hedges from the weekend unwinding despite threat of an Israel response to Iran, with WTI and Brent troughing at USD 84.05/bbl and 88.73/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning. The benchmarks found a fleeting bid later on amid reports in WSJ and Axios that talked of Israeli officials promising a response; reporting suggests that response could be a cyberattack or targeted attacks on key state-owned sites such as Iranian oil infrastructure. However, that failed to lead to much of a sustained recovery at the time. But there was a more pronounced recovery later on amid the US announcing it will not renew the temporary license (which expires April 18th) that eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector unless progress is made by President Maduro. More reporting about an Israeli response being imminent likely provided some support too. Elsewhere Monday, Reuters reported Russia has managed to restore some primary oil refining units hit by Ukrainian drones. Reuters also reported separately that Russia’s March seaborne oil product exports were down 4.2% M/M. From a technical perspective, the oil tape is starting to look slightly vulnerable after a solid momentum rally YTD, with front-month benchmarks gravitating towards their 20d MAs (c. 83.90/bbl for WTI and 88.30/bbl for Brent), which they haven’t traded beneath since mid-March, but are holding firm for now.

CRUDE UNCH: $85.66                    UNCH HIGHS

US 1-MO 5.381 +0.006
US 6-MO 5.368 +0.021
US 1-YR 5.168 +0.026
US 5-YR 4.627 +0.092
US 10-YR 4.61+0.111
US 30-YR 4.724 +0.121

2YR/10YR -0.32

– BTC April Halving expected around the 20th
– the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved applications from three Chinese companies to list Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong.

CRYPTO DOWN: BTC/ETH:            BTC 875/-1.36% 63250, ETH UNCH 3094


Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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