Market in Review 4/23/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:

Tesla Earnings today! (All eyes)

– JetBlue plunges 17%
– Spotify +14%
– Earnings: SHW, CLF, NUE, PKG disappoint, GE, GM & DHR impress

– US Building Permits higher than forecast, still at 6-month low
– US New Home Sales rebound
– US Manufac PMI unexpectedly falls to 4-month Low

– FTSE closes record high, DAX up 2%
– BoE’s Pill offers hawkish remark

– Nikkei sources noted BoJ will discuss the rapid Yen slide at the meeting

– iPhone sales fell 19% in China in Q1

DOLLAR DX down: 105.52             -0.4% (106.07 – 105.45) Off Lows
– AUD up: 64.84                               +0.5% (64.42 – 64.91) Off Highs
– EUR down: 93.42                          -0.44% (93.97 – 93.36) Lows
– GBP up: 124.47                             +0.78% (123.32 – 124.59) Highs
– JPY UNCH: 154.76                         UNCH (154.86 – 154.59) Off Highs

GOLD down: $2335                        -0.45% ($2306 – $2344) Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND up/up/UP:                38755 +0.75%, 5112 +1.3%, 17661 +1.8%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH/up:       UNCH 66390, +22/+0.7% 3210
CRUDE up: $83.38                           +1.81% ($80.88 – $83.39) HIGHS

Upcoming:

AU INFLATION/CPI (Trimmed/weighted)

GE IFO

US Durable Goods

BoC Minutes

Speakers:

ECB: Tuominen, Cipollone, McCaul, Schnabel

Earnings:

Vinci, Carrefour, Orange, Air Liquide, Iberdrola, Roche, Volvo Car, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Meta, Chipotle, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, IBM, Norfolk Southern, Ford.

MAJORS:

DX:
Hit after weak S&P Global PMI data for both manufacturing and services. The data sparked a typical dovish reaction with upside in bonds and stocks also weighing on the Dollar.

DOLLAR DX down: 105.52             -0.4% (106.07 – 105.45) Off Lows

No call

AUD:
ALL EYES CPI TODAY!

AUD up: 64.84                                 +0.5% (64.42 – 64.91) Off Highs

No call

GBP
Bid after hawkish commentary from Pill, particularly in relation to Ramsden on Friday

GBP up: 124.47                 +0.78% (123.32 – 124.59) Highs

No call

EUR
Bid thanks to the weaker Greenback which saw EUR/USD briefly rise above 1.07 in response to the US PMI data. The Eurozone data also beat expectations, helping the Euro find a bid throughout the morning. ECB’s De Guindos also spoke, noting a June rate cut looks like a set deal if there are no surprises. He did acknowledge, however, that what the Fed decides is crucial for the global economy and the ECB needs to take into account the impact of FX moments.

EUR down: 93.42                            -0.44% (93.97 – 93.36) Lows

No call

YEN:
Some strength in the US session on a Nikkei sources article suggesting the BoJ are to discuss the Yen slide at the BoJ meeting on Friday. USD/JPY still remains near its 34-year highs, however. The Yen also saw some strength overnight on remarks from Finance Minister Suzuki who said that last week’s discussions in Washington have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate FX action.

JPY UNCH: 154.76                           UNCH (154.86 – 154.59) Off Highs

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:
Early pre-market continuation was reversed on the open grinding back to yesterdays lows in a short squeeze.

GOLD down: $2335                        -0.45% ($2306 – $2344) Off Highs

No call

EQUITIES:

US INDEXES:
– SPX +1.20% 5,070
– NDX +1.51% 17,471
– DJIA +0.69% 38,503
– RUT +1.79% at 2,002

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +1.58% 17,861.20
– FTSE: +0.26% 8,021.67
– CAC: +0.81% 8,052.57
– ES50: +1.43% 4,962.55

SECTORS (W to S): Communication Services +1.86%, Technology +1.71%, Industrials +1.40%, Health +1.25%, Consumer Discretionary +1.18%, Real Estate +0.87%, Financials +0.68%, Energy +0.53%, Utilities +0.49%, Consumer Staples +0.15%, Materials -0.84%

STOCKS
– General Electric (+8.5%) profit beat with a strong FY guidance
– JetBlue (-19%) FY outlook disappointed as it now sees FY revenue down low single digits
– Spotify +11.5%: Surpassed Wall St. expectations on both EPS and revenue.
– General Motors (+4.5%) report impressed accompanied by lifting FY guidance
– Apple +0.5%: iPhone sales in China -19% in Q1 and down 24% Y/Y in the first six weeks of the year, according to Counterpoint Research.
– HashiCorp +19.5%: IBM reportedly nears a deal for HashiCorp, according to WSJ.

OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLED USD 1.46 HIGHER AT 83.36/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 1.42 HIGHER AT 88.42/BBL

The crude complex was aided by the weaker Dollar amid dovish US S&P Flash PMIs. Heading into the data WTI and Brent were hovering just off lows of USD 80.88/bbl and 86.03/bbl, respectively, before the softer-than-expected PMIs caused a broad-based dovish reaction (Dollar weakness, Stocks/Tsys bid) to support oil. Moreover, as the US session unfolded oil continued its upward trajectory to settle at highs. Note, in the EZ morning the complex faded the initial upside which stemmed from Flash PMIs in Europe with a geopolitical escalation yet to be seen in the Middle East. The latest is that the Israeli Army is reportedly preparing to launch a military operation in Rafah very soon. Elsewhere, Russia reaffirmed its 2024 oil output forecast of down 1.25% to 523mln T this year and sees crude exports nearly flat at 240mln T this year and rising gradually to 270mln T in 2027. Attention is now on the weekly inventory data with crude stocks expected to build 1.8mln bbls, gasoline to draw 1.4mln, and distillate to draw 0.9mln. Oil Report Courtesy of newsqaurk.

CRUDE up: $83.38                           +1.81% ($80.88 – $83.39) HIGHS

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.38 -0.001
US 6-MO 5.374 -0.003
US 1-YR 5.152 -0.020
US 5-YR 4.633 -0.028
US 10-YR 4.607 -0.016
US 30-YR 4.73 +0.006

2YR/10YR -0.33

CRYPTO
–  prices change largely will depend on Hashrate (the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin).
– halving affects price due to media attention, historical precedents incentivizing traders, and supply scarcity
– Bitcoin-related stocks have seen some dramatic gains:

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, was trading near $1,350 midday Tuesday, roughly a 15% bump since Friday

U.S. exchange Coinbase up 10%, to $235

Marathon Digital Holdings up 15%, to $9.28

Riot Platforms up 25%, to $11.70

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH/up:       UNCH 66390, +22/+0.7% 3210

No Call

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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