MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Gold closes -3%, Silver -5.5%
– CHI Fed National Activity index at 4-month high
– FTSE closes record highs
– Yen hits 34yr low
– Cocoa -11%
– Biden unveils $7B in rooftop Solar
– PBoC leaves LPR rates unchanged
– ECB Centeno suggests rate cuts could exceed 100bps this year
– TSLA cuts China prices
DOLLAR DX UNCh: 105.96 UNCH (105.85 – 106.22) Off Lows
– AUD up: 64.47 +0.48% (64.27 – 64.55) Off Highs
– EUR UNCH: 93.86 UNCH (93.69 – 94.10) Mid
– GBP down small: 123.52 -0.14% (123.91 – 123.01) Mid
– JPY up: 154.82 +0.17% (154.60 – 154.84) HIGHS
GOLD DOWN: $2343 -3% ($2386 – $2339) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND up/up/up: 38450 +0.63%, 5043 +0.8%, 17328 +0.9%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2160/+3.3% 66738, +53/+1.7% 3196
CRUDE UNCH: $83.02 UNCH ($81.85 – $83.33) Mid to high
Upcoming:
AU FR, EZ, UK PMI
US PMI, Richmond Fed Index
Speakers:
BoE: Pill
ECB: Nagel
Earnings:
ASM, Kering, Associated British Foods, Novartis, Spotify, General Motors, Philip Morris, PepsiCo, RTX, Fiserv, UPS, Visa, Lockheed Martin, Tesla.
MAJORS:
DX:
Ultimately flat on Monday; DXY briefly dipped beneath 106.00 before paring losses in quiet trade, with focus on this week’s plethora of US corporate earnings, US GDP and US PCE data ahead of the Fed rate decision next week, while the FOMC in blackout.
DOLLAR DX UNCh: 105.96 UNCH (105.85 – 106.22) Off Lows
No call
AUD:
Nothing of report to note
AUD up: 64.47 +0.48% (64.27 – 64.55) Off Highs
No call
GBP
Sold throughout the European session in a continuation of the weakness on Friday in wake of a dovish-sounding BoE’s Ramsden, which saw Cable test 1.2300. The cross hit 1.23 on the nose before paring back above 1.2350, likely also supported by the upside in equities to see GBP relatively flat vs both the Dollar and Euro
GBP down small: 123.52 -0.14% (123.91 – 123.01) Mid
No call
EUR
The latest ECB survey from Reuters sees the vast majority of those surveyed expecting the central bank to cut rates in June, though a minority look for the first rate cut to occur in Q3. Looking ahead, 59/97 analysts see 75bps or less of easing this year, while 38 expect 100bps or more of easing throughout 2024. Elsewhere, there were remarks from ECB’s Patsalides who stressed data dependence, while ECB’s Centeno suggested that rate cuts this year could exceed 100bps, though the ECB would still be in restrictive territory even after 100bps of cuts.
EUR UNCH: 93.86 UNCH (93.69 – 94.10) Mid
No call
YEN:
155.00 is a level largely seen as the line in the sand for Japanese officials. Attention now turns to the BoJ confab, on Friday, which will contain updated economic forecasts.
JPY up: 154.82 +0.17% (154.60 – 154.84) HIGHS
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
SOLD.
Overdue sell off. I had $2400 for a few sessions as toppy but we had short squeezes above, too tough to hold on. Hopefully some punters got on ride down. A lack of geopolitical turbulence cited by some sources, I think its more simple price action.
GOLD DOWN: $2343 -3% ($2386 – $2339) LOWS
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.87% 5,010
– NDX +1.02% 17,211
– DJI +0.67% 38,240
– RUT +1.02% 1,967
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.64% 17,738.04
– FTSE: +1.62% 7,895.85
– CAC: +0.22% 8,007.45
– ES50: +0.39% 4,913.05
SECTORS (W to S): Technology +1.28%, Financials +1.20%, Utilities +0.96%, Consumer Staples +0.94%, Real Estate +0.77%, Industrials +0.75%, Consumer Discretionary +0.66%, Energy +0.65%, Communication Services +0.42%, Health +0.39%, Materials +0.10%
STOCKS
– Tesla -2%: Cut prices across its entire line-up in China, as well as some in other markets.
– Verizon -4.5%: Posted a mixed report; revenue missed while profit beat.
OIL:
WTI (M4) SETTLES USD 0.32 LOWER AT 81.90/BBL; BRENT (M4) FUTURES SETTLE USD 0.29 LOWER AT 87.00/BBL
The crude complex was lower throughout the session on Monday due to a lack of major geopolitical escalation which saw an unwind of the geopolitical risk premium. As such, WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 80.70/bbl and 85.79/bbl, respectively, in the EZ morning but currently sit off those levels in what has been a day with light headline newsflow as participants await the next risk events. For the record, the latest Middle East update was Israeli PM Netanyahu noting “Hamas rejected all proposals related to the release of the hostages and our determination is firm to free them”, according to Sky News Arabia. Note, Israel is currently observing Passover which concludes on April 30th. Oil Report Courtesy of newsqaurk.
CRUDE UNCH: $82.75 UNCH ($81.57 – $83.44) Mid to high
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5. 386 +0.008
US 6-MO 5.379 +0.008
US 1-YR 5.172 +0.003
US 5-YR 4.652 -0.004
US 10-YR 4.611 -0.004
US 30-YR 4.715 +0.004
2YR/10YR -0.36
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin’s so-called halving event has had little impact on its price so far, with industry insiders on Monday saying the cryptocurrency’s fortunes were more closely tied to broader financial market sentiment and geopolitics
– bitcoin is increasingly dependent on wider market sentiment and there was no clear pattern of retail trading activity around the halving.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2160/+3.3% 66738, +53/+1.7% 3196
No Call
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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