MARKET REPORT
Review:
– FED LEAVES RATES ON HOLD INDICATES 3 RATE CUTS FOR 2024
– Fed leaves Rates at 5.25-5.5%, 23yr High for a 5th consecutive meeting
– Policy makers ‘do not expect to alter target range until greater confidence inflation moving lower’
– GDP see higher in 2024, 2.1% vs 1.4% (Dec project), 2025 2% vs 1.8%, 2026 2% vs 1.9%
– PCE Inflation kept unchanged for 2024, 2.4% vs 2.4% but inched higher 2025 2.2% vs 2.1%
– CORE PCE seen higher 2024 2.6% vs 2.4%, UNCH for 2025 2.2%
– Unemployment rate seen lower 2024 4% vs 4.1% UNCH for 2025 4.1%
– Powell downplays hot inflation data
– Soft UK CPI
– Hawkish BoJ sources
– S&P Hits all-time high
– Crude hit on inventories falling most in 2 months. I don’t understand either.
– EU Consumer sentiment at 2yr high
– DAX closes above 18,000 for first time. Ze Germans are coming.
– CAC drops 0.5% from Yest all-time high
– JPM lifts dividend by 10%, wake record profits, stock up 1%
– CMG announce 50-1 stock split
– Irish PM resigns, Indonesia Defence Minister declared new PM.
– China’s Wang Li visits Australia, most senior visit in 7yrs (proving the Left has ZERO moral values.)
– Gold UP, Dollar DOWN, Equities up, Crypto re-gains footing, Crude OFF
– Nvidia party keeps on going with their share price and conference
DOLLAR DOWN DX: 103.035 -0.4% (103.77 – 103.035) LOWS
– AUD UP: 65.85 +0.8% (65.13 – 65.86) HIGHS
– EUR DOWN: 91.54 -0.5% (92.25 – 91.54) LOWS
– GBP UP: 127.83 +0.5% (126.85 – 127.84) HIGHS
– JPY up: 151.25 +0.3% (151.78 – 150.80) Off Lows
GOLD UP: $2186 +1.25% ($2152 – $2190) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND up: 39925 +1.0%, 5285 +0.8%, 18475 +1.12%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2600/+4% 66455, +113/+3.5% 3415
CRUDE Down: $81.84 -2%/-1.63$ ($83.21 – $81.47) Off lows
Upcoming:
JAP: Bal of Trade
AU EMPLOYMENT!
DE/EU PMI Flash
BoE INTEREST RATE DEC!
US: Jobless, Philly Fed, Existing Homes
Speakers: Fed Barr
MAJORS:
DX:
Lower after the Federal Reserve 2024 median dot was left unchanged despite some hawkish risks for a revision higher. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell downplayed the hot January and February CPI numbers noting they are not going to overreact to two months of data, but he did note they will not ignore it either and they are examining whether it is a bump in the road, or perhaps more.
DOLLAR DOWN DX: 103.035 -0.4% (103.77 – 103.035) LOWS
No call
10 –
AUD:
EMPLOYMENT!!!!!
AUD UP: 65.85 +0.8% (65.13 – 65.86) HIGHS
No call
6s
GBP
The Pound saw gains vs the Dollar and the Euro although inflation data in the UK came in softer than expected as eyes turn to the BoE on Thursday. Analysts said the headline metrics will be welcomed by the BoE, but it is still unlikely to mark a deviation from the ‘Table Mountain’ approach. Capital Economics said the data probably won’t make the BoE sound any more dovish when it leaves interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but its economists see UK inflation falling below 2% in April, and then easing towards 1%, and it said that this would suggest that the BoE may have to start cutting rates in the summer.
GBP UP: 127.83 +0.5% (126.85 – 127.84) HIGHS
No call with interest Rate Dec
EUR
Euro saw gains vs the Softer Dollar with the majority of gains seen in the wake of the FOMC policy announcement to see EUR/USD rise above 1.09 as Powell spoke.
EUR DOWN: 91.54 -0.5% (92.25 – 91.54) LOWS
No call
9-
YEN:
Lower but well off earlier troughs in wake of the dovishly perceived FOMC as well as hawkish BoJ source reports in Nikkei that suggested another hike could come in July or October amid the recent Yen slide. USD/JPY hit a high of 151.85 ahead of the FOMC and Nikkei report with many cognizant of any Japanese intervention as it tests multi-year highs just shy of 152; (November 2023 high @151.92, October 2022 high @ 151.94). There is also speculation if the Yen weakness were to continue the BoJ/MoF could step in; ING note that local accounts felt that 155 would be the level at which the BoJ would intervene to sell FX and protect the Yen. There were Nikkei reports earlier in the session that said the Yen’s decline appears to be raising little alarm at the BoJ for now, It “was to be expected” given that Ueda is maintaining an accommodative stance on policy, citing a BoJ source, which added that some at Japan’s Finance Ministry are wary of rapid fluctuations.
JPY up: 151.25 +0.3% (151.78 – 150.80) Off Lows
No call
1
GOLD & SILVER:
Gold prices skyrocketed late in the North American session after the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged but upward revised the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) projections for 2025.
This is todays story in a nutshell. Upward revision of inflation…. Gold Bull continues.
GOLD UP: $2186 +1.25% ($2152 – $2190) HIGHS
Expect a test of the $2200 level, and stops. Look for a close above to signify more strength.
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.89% 5,225
– NDX +1.15% 18,240
– DJI +1.03% 39,512
– RUT +1.92% at 2,075
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.14% at 18,012.93
– CAC: -0.48% 8,161.41
– FTSE: -0.01% 7,737.38
– ES50: -0.19% 4,998.65
SECTORS (S to W): Consumer Discretionary +1.45%, Communication Services +1.26%, Financials +1.24%, Industrials +1.21%, Technology +1.15%, Materials +0.98%, Real Estate +0.39%, Consumer Staples +0.23%, Utilities +0.13%, Energy -0.09%, Health -0.23%.
STOCKS
– Telsla: +2.5%: Raises Model Y prices in China.
– Boeing: +3.6%%: Boeing is looking into how it can sever Spirit AeroSystems’ ties with Airbus to facilitate Boeing’s bid to reacquire its former subsidiary, Reuters reported. Separately, the CFO expects FCF usage of USD 4-4.5bln this quarter after the door plug blowout crisis, Co. has also made the decision to keep 737 production below 38/mth.
– Huawei: US mulls sanctioning Huawei’s chipmaking network by including them in its entity list, according to Bloomberg.
– Amazon: +1.3%: Developing a new AI search tool that can create images based on shopper queries and product photos, according to Business Insider.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLES USD 1.46 LOWER AT 81.27/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLES USD 1.43 LOWER AT 85.94/BBL
Oil prices took a tumble on Wednesday as prices retreated from their multi-month peaks gradually through the session in the run-up to the FOMC. There was no obvious catalyst for the pullback. There may be some ongoing considerations of ramped Russian oil exports amid Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, highlighted by Reuters updating Wednesday that oil loadings from Russia’s western ports is seen above 2.5mln BPD from March 20-31st, at two-year highs. At the same time, some analysts posit that if the attacks/refinery outages are sustained, Russia may reduce oil supply. Note that Russian Energy Minister Shulginov said earlier that there is potential for an increase of fuel production at refineries where output was not halted. Elsewhere, the EIA US energy inventory data was on the bullish side to little effect, where crude stocks drew 2mln bbls in the latest week, coinciding with gasoline drawing 3.3mln and distillates building 0.6mln bbls, with refinery utilisation rising 1% on the week. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.
CRUDE Down: $81.84 -2%/-1.63$ ($83.21 – $81.47) Off lows
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.366 -0.016
US 6-MO 5.316 -0.029
US 1-YR 4.999 -0.006
US 5-YR 4.255 -0.045
US 10-YR 4.283 -0.013
US 30-YR 4.461 +0.020
2YR/10YR -0.33
CRYPTO
– BTC Hits 60900, This punter had 60k, youre welcome, bounces to 67775.
– BTC short squeeze, up 5.5%, ETH +5.5% to 3470
– SOL +5.5%
– Doge +12%
– Uncategorized Bitcoin Ordinals collection emerged as the top ranking NFT with $3.42m sales, despite 34% drop
– ETH leads with $12.5m in NFT Sales, all-time sales at $43B. BTC $11M, Solana 3rd $7m
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2600/+5.5% 67775, +X/+5.5% 3475
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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