Market in Review 3/18/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– BoJ to end NIRP
– NASDAQ leads stocks higher
– Strong China activity data
– Crude Highest since Oct
– Eurozone Trade Surplus 11B vs -32B Jan 23
– Steel rebounds from Mar 15th 4yr Low
– US Home builder sentiment rises more than expected

– Supreme court to hear arguments on Bidens suppression of social media
– MSM continues to misquote Trump in latest ‘bloodbath’ comment taken completely out of context
– Macron meeting with Zelensky comes out with hardline support, Crimea return line in sand
– Putin responds with WW3 threat
– Trump fighting 464m Bond
– Biden to implement strict pollution limits to boost EV sales

– AAPL to integrate GOOGL’s Gemini AI into iPhone

– Crude up, Tech up, Dollar up smalls, GC UNCH, Crypto down as ETF inflows decline.

DOLLAR up DX: 103.23                  +0.16% (102.96 – 103.28) Off Highs
– AUD UNCH: 65.56                         UNCH (65.76 – 65.52) Off Lows
– EUR up small: 91.98                     0.2% (91.68 – 92.00) Off Highs
– GBP down small: 127.26             -0.1% (127.21 – 127.47) Off Lows
– JPY UNCH: 149.16                         UNCH (149.00 149.29) Mid

GOLD UNCH: $2164                        UNCH ($2150 – $2166) Off Highs Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND UP:                             39265 +0.2%, 5222 0.75%, 18278 +1.25% Off Highs
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN:            -1385/-2% 67000, -166/-4.5% 3480 Off Lows
CRUDE UP: $82.90                          +2.3%/+1.86$ ($81.19 – $83.06) Off Highs

Upcoming:
BoJ Hikes rates tom (from -0.1%, Yup, negative)
RBA
FOMC Wednesday
SNB, BOE Thurs
(BoE & FOMC expec unch but looking for hints at cut commencement)
RBA Policy Announcement, BoJ Policy Announcement

Speakers: BoJ’s Ueda, RBA Press Conference, ECB’s de Guindos

MAJORS:

DX:  
The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% on Wednesday. The market’s focus will be on the accompanying Dot Plot with risks the 2024 median forecast may nudge higher to two cuts from December’s three cuts to reflect the recent upside surprises in inflation and growth data. Money markets have pulled back hawkishly this year to align with the Fed’s December forecast of three cuts in 2024 and now do not have a rate cut fully priced in until July, although a June cut is implied at 60%, where the majority of analysts expect. There is also a risk the neutral rate forecast moves higher. Given the “bumpy” progress on inflation, Chair Powell is likely to remain coy on specifics of rate cut timing after he said the Fed was “not far” from nearing the confidence to begin rate cuts before the hot February inflation data. We also expect to get a more formal acknowledgement that discussions have begun, but not a decision, on the tapering of the balance sheet runoff.

FX trade was relatively quiet on Monday with a plethora of central banking activity due this week (BoJ, RBA, FOMC, BCB, PBoC, Norges, SNB, BoE, CBRT)

DOLLAR up DX: 103.23                  +0.16% (102.96 – 103.28) Off Highs

No call

10 –

AUD:
FX trade was relatively quiet on Monday with a plethora of central banking activity due this week (BoJ, RBA, FOMC, BCB, PBoC, Norges, SNB, BoE, CBRT)

AUD UNCH: 65.56                           UNCH (65.76 – 65.52) Off Lows

No call

6s

GBP
FX trade was relatively quiet on Monday with a plethora of central banking activity due this week (BoJ, RBA, FOMC, BCB, PBoC, Norges, SNB, BoE, CBRT)

GBP down small: 127.26               -0.1% (127.21 – 127.47) Off Lows

No call

12-

EUR
FX trade was relatively quiet on Monday with a plethora of central banking activity due this week (BoJ, RBA, FOMC, BCB, PBoC, Norges, SNB, BoE, CBRT)

EUR up small: 91.98                       0.2% (91.68 – 92.00) Off Highs

No call

9-

YEN:
There were several sources over the weekend but the latest from Nikkei suggests the BoJ is set to end NIRP, end YCC and also end ETF purchases at the upcoming meeting. The report saw the Yen strengthen to lows of 148.92 but the move swiftly pared with plenty of articles already suggesting the BoJ is to hike at the March meeting. Do note that a poll released on Friday saw analysts lean towards an April hike instead.

JPY UNCH: 149.16                           UNCH (149.00 149.29) Mid

No call

1

GOLD & SILVER:
I have had $2150 as support for several days now.
Market touched this level and bounced.
I hope some made $$ from this.

SI holding above the key $25 mark.

2150 to 2200 rage until FOMC Wed.

GOLD UNCH: $2164                        UNCH ($2150 – $2166) Off Highs

No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX: +0.63% 5,149
– NDX: +0.99% 17,985
– DJI: +0.2% 38,790
– RUT: -0.72% 2,025

EUR INDEXES:
–  ES 50: -0.09% 4,984.25
– FTSE: -0.06% 7,722.55
– DAX: +0.01% 17,939.21
– CAC 40 -0.20% 8,148.14

SECTORS (S to W): Communication Services +2.95%, Consumer Staples +0.82%, Consumer Discretionary +0.62%, Technology +0.51%, Financials +0.5%, Utilities +0.46%, Energy +0.43%, Materials +0.17%, Industrials +0.17%, Real Estate -0.02%, Health -0.02%.

STOCKS
Tesla +6%: To raise US prices for Model Y by USD 1,000 on 1st April (see autos section below for more).
Boeing -1.5%: Federal prosecutors are investigating the mid-air blowout of a Boeing Co. door plug on an Alaska Airlines flight, using subpoenas and a grand jury in Seattle, Bloomberg reports.
Rivian +3.2%: Rivian vehicles are now compatible with the supercharger network.
IPO’s: Reddit’s IPO is currently between 4-5x oversubscribed, making it more likely the social media platform will attain the USD 6.5bln valuation it seeks; the company is poised to at least reach its targeted price range of USD 31-34/shr when it prices on Wednesday.
Autos: The Biden administration is poised to implement the strictest pollution limits for cars and light trucks, aiming to significantly boost electric vehicle sales, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, India announced a significant reduction in import duties on specific electric vehicles, targeting manufacturers investing at least USD 500mln in local production within three years, WSJ reports.

OIL:
WTI (J4) SETTLES USD 1.68 HIGHER AT 82.72/BBL; BRENT (K4) SETTLES USD 1.55 HIGHER AT 86.89/BBL

Oil prices rallied on Monday with strong Chinese activity data providing the latest push to new multi-month highs. The latest Chinese industrial output and retail sales figures for the January to February period came in comfortably above expectations, providing support for commodities. At the same time, Eurozone trade data for January saw the goods trade surplus hit its highest level since 2002. On the supply side, Iraq’s oil minister said the country is committed to voluntary cuts agreed to within the OPEC+ group and will reduce exports to 3.3mln BPD in the coming months to compensate for exceeding its quota in January and February. We also heard familiar rhetoric from the Saudi Aramco CEO, who said that peak oil and gas is unlikely anytime soon, and that he sees global oil demand hitting a record in H2 2024. In the US, the EIA said US oil output from the top shale-producing regions is due to climb marginally in April to the highest since December 2023. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.

CRUDE UP: $82.90                          +2.3%/+1.86$ ($81.19 – $83.06) Off Highs

BOND YIELDS:

US 1-MO 5.386 +0.005
US 6-MO 5.341 +0.01
US 1-YR 5.093 +0.016
US 5-YR 4.349 +0.025
US 10-YR 4.328 +0.024
US 30-YR 4.451 +0.023

2YR/10YR -0.42

CRYPTO
– Solana Becomes 4th largest Crypto by Market Cap
– BTC Top blockchain for NFT, $21m Sales, +74%, 6759 transactions (+17%)
– Fidelity’s Wise Origin BTC ETF becomes 5th Popular, $6.9b Since Jan 12th,
Vanguard #1, $24B, iShares Core #2 $15B, IBIT (Blackrock) 3rd $12.5
– 10x research has a $59 point for BTC, this punter said a test of $60 DAYS AGO, plagiarists!
– ETF infow, or reduction will determine if we see $60 or continue upward.

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH DOWN:            -1385/-2% 67000, -166/-4.5% 3480 Off Lows

No specifics but $60k likely more-so than $80k

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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