MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US CPI revisions do little to change the narrative
– Fed’s Bostic and Logan want more evidence on inflation
– Netanyahu planning Rafah op to destroy Hamas
– NYCB relief rally
– Tech stocks continue surge, ES close above 5000
– Dollar flat, GC down small
– Crypto continues surge
– 49’ers to win on Sunday
DOLLAR DX: Flat:
– AUD up: 65.22 +0.45% (64.93 – 65.34) close off highs
– EUR UNCH: 92.70 UNCH (92.97 – 92.63) close off lows
– GBP up smalls: 126.30 +0.1% (126.01 – 126.41) close upper mid
– JPY UNCH: 149.29 UNCH (149.57 – 149.05) close mid rge
GOLD down small: $2040 -0.4% ($2050 – $2035) close off lows
DOW/ES/ND: 38765 UNCH, 5045 +0.45%, 18050 +1.0% ES & NQ close on highs
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: +2200/+5% 47600, +67/+2.75% 2495 close highs/mid highs
CRUDE up small: $76.55 +$0.33/+0.4% close mid rge
Upcoming Monday:
US Consumer Inflation Expectations
AU Westpac Confidence
NAB Bus Confidence
JPY PPI
Speakers:
ECB Panetta, Hernandez de cos, Lane, Cippollone, Buch, Winter
BOE Bailey
RBA Kohler
Earnings: Coke, Airbnb, Cisco, Deere
Upcoming Week Ahead:
US CPI
Retail Sales
AU Jobs
UK employment/wages, GDP and CPI data
MAJORS:
DX:
Dollar was flat on Friday with the highly anticipated CPI revisions doing little to change the dial but the downward revision to December was encouraging and sparked a brief dovish reaction. Lots of Fed speak and Inflation data next week to make a call.
No call
10-
AUD:
“Choppy trading around the figure to continue.”
Wed Mkt Report.
And back above the handle we go. Gradual Incline in a tight 25 pip session.
NZD was however, the clear outperformer after ANZ bank announced it forecasts the RBNZ to hike in February and April.
RBA Governor Bullock stressed Australia’s inflation challenge is not over and at this stage, the board has not ruled out a further hike in rates, but it has neither ruled it in – in fitting with the RBA statement earlier this week. Bullock also stated inflation does not need to be in the 2-3% range for them to think about rate cuts, and if consumption slows faster than thought, it will be an opportunity to cut rates.
No call
6-
EUR:
Bloomberg sources reported the ECB warned banks of capital charges if CRE risk is not well managed, although officials do not see a big hit to banks’ capital on CRE losses.
ECB’s Kazaks spoke, noting this will be a year of rate cuts but hopes for easing at one of the next two meetings might be too aggressive.
No call
9-
POUND:
BoE hawk Haskel largely echoed fellow dissenter Mann by noting signs of lower inflation are encouraging but more evidence is needed on reduced inflation persistence to stop voting for higher rates. He also stated the February decision was finely balanced.
No call
1-
YEN:
Governor Ueda also towed the line that chances are high for accommodative conditions to stay, even if negative rates are abandoned, echoing deputy governor Uchida on Thursday.
No call
1-
GOLD & SILVER:
Gradual weakness in GC drifted lower, Silver making up underperforming previous sessions.
Nothing worthy note.
No call
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX +0.57% 5,027
– NDX +1.01% 17,962
– DJI -0.14% 38,672
– RUT +1.53% 2,010
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX -0.24% 16,922.56
– FTSE -0.30% 7,572.58
– CAC -0.24% 7,647.52
– ES50 +0.09% 4,715.05
SECTORS (S to W): Technology +1.5%, Consumer Discretionary +0.99%, Communication Services +0.74%, Utilities +0.42%, Financials +0.32%, Real Estate +0.28%, Materials +0.26%, Industrials +0.12%, Health -0.06%, Consumer Staples -0.85%, Energy -1.56%
STOCKS:
– PepsiCo -3.5%: Beat on EPS but missed on revenue with FY24 organic revenue short. Plans to buyback around USD 1bln in shares and raises annual dividend by 7% to 5.42/shr
– Expedia -18%: Bookings fell short, “largely driven by a reduction in average ticket prices” for air travel, while CEO Kern also unexpectedly resigned.
– Cloudflare +20%: Top and bottom line beat accompanied by solid guidance.
– Nvidia +3.5%: Said customer chip unit held talks with large cloud computing companies and OpenAI. NVDA is building customer design unit to focus on AI data centre chips and other markets.
– United Airline +1.5%: Upgraded at Evercore
OIL:
WTI (H4) SETTLES USD 0.62 HIGHER AT 76.84/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLES USD 0.56 HIGHER AT 82.19/BBL
Oil prices were firmer on Friday, marking five consecutive days of gains, with Israel’s rejection of the Hamas ceasefire the latest tailwind. WTI (H4) and Brent (J4) futures hit peaks of USD 77.29/bbl and 82.45/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning, coming on the heels of reports that Israel PM Netanyahu had instructed a fresh, broad wave of attacks in Gaza. Israel later confirmed it had rejected the ceasefire agreement in its current form. However, oil prices failed to extend higher into the NY afternoon, with benchmarks chopping back within ranges ahead of the weekend. There were little other catalysts for the energy market on Friday. The latest Baker Hughes US rig count (w/e Feb 9th) saw Oil rigs flat at 499 and Nat Gas rigs up four at 121 (the highest since September). Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the much anticipated Dangote refinery (projected 650k BPD capacity) is set to deliver its first refined fuel to the local market within weeks, Reuters reported citing sources. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.39 +0.002 US 6-MO 5.287 +0.019 US 1-YR 4.873 +0.026 US 5-YR 4.142 +0.018 US 10-YR 4.177 +0.007 US 30-YR 4.374 -0.006
2YR/10YR -0.31
CRYPTO:
“Further strength expected. Cant see a reason for a pause here.”
“BTC back to outperforming ETH now. That’s the trade ID be looking at putting on at good levels.”
Yest Mkt Report.
BTC up 4.5% and outperformed ETH +3%.
Hopefully someone made money on either or. Im quite annoyed at my wording on this. What I meant was to buy BTC and lean on ETH, youd well in the money on a spread I think will continue to outperform.
Continued upside with BTC to outperform.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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