MARKET REPORT
America is now unburdened by what has been
Bella Epoque ($33.5m)
“Money is a terrible master but an excellent servant.”
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
DATA:
– PAYROLLS TOMORROW! PAYROLLS TOMORROW! PAYROLLS TOMORROW! PAYROLLS TOMORROW!
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose modestly last week from 215k to 224k
– Trade deficit for the US came in below forecasts
– The odds of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed this month hold steady at around 74%, largely unchanged from Wednesday
(See full breakdown below)
COMPANIES
– Judge Rejects Boeing (-1.34%) Plea Deal In 737 Max Crashes Over DEI Provision
– CIBC (CM) released earnings per share at 1.91 CAD, compared to market expectations of 1.77 CAD
– Bank of Montreal (BMO) released earnings per share at 1.90 CAD, compared to market expectations of 2.46 CAD
– TD Bank (TD) released earnings per share at 1.72 CAD, compared to market expectations of 1.83 CAD
(See below for breakdown)
– Tesla increased to a 31-month high of 363.59 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Tesla gained 42.14%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 49.65%
– Tesla stock popped Thursday on the back of bullish comments from BofA Securities, with the firm’s analysts fresh off a Giga Austin factory visit.
– GameStop’s shares (+6%) jumped on Thursday after a cryptic post from meme stock influencer Keith Gill, who shot to notoriety after his online personas and bullish bets on the video game retailer sparked a trading frenzy among mom-and-pop investors.
GENERAL:
– “Current Situation Serious”: VW CEO Tells Workers Labor Cost Reduction Urgent To “Secure Future”
– Biden falls asleep at international conference for FIFTY-ONE SECONDS!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1864403426303529321
– Jihadists take Syria’s 3rd largest city, Hama, quickly following the fall of Aleppo
– The Canadian TSX Composite Index edged up 0.2% to close at a new record high of 25,680, amid a mix of earnings reports in the banking sector.
– Bank of Montreal’s shares rallied 4.2% after announcing a dividend increase, a new share buyback program, and strong net interest income growth, offsetting earlier losses from weak earnings and surging credit loss provisions.
– Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce climbed 4.4%, surpassing profit forecasts with earnings of C$1.91 per share, lowering credit loss provisions to C$419 million, and capitalizing on robust growth in wealth management and commercial banking. Energy stocks added further support with broad gains.
– TD Bank tumbled 7.1% after suspending medium-term financial targets, initiating a strategic review, and posting disappointing earnings, exacerbated by a $3.1 billion U.S. money-laundering settlement
– Euro Bourses extend gains for 6th straight session
– Muhammed is the most popular boys name in: England, Wales, Brussels and Berlin
– Mag 7 earthquake off coast California, Tsunami warning called OFF.
– UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination: Bullet Casings Inscribed With “Deny, Defend, Depose”
– Qatar resumes Hamas-Israel mediation
– BoJ Nakamura not adverse to rate hike, casts doubt over wage growth sustainability
– French PM resigns, President Macron looks to team with Socialist party
– EU nations discuss EUR 500bln joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement
– President-elect Donald Trump nominated Fiserv CEO Frank Bisignano to lead the Social Security Administration
– Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: December 18bps (prev. 19bps), January 25bps (prev. 25bps), March 41bps (prev. 42bps)
– Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down, BTC pumps n Dumps
Ahead:
– German Industrial Output, Canadian jobs report, US JOBS REPORT! & Uni. of Michigan prelim
Speakers:
– Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack & Daly
MAJORS:
DX:
– Dollar weakness lingered into the European session as Wednesday’s soft-ISM Services continued to weigh.
Thereafter, losses extended versus all G10 peers on initial claims rising above expectations to 224k (exp. 215k, prev. 215k), albeit continued claims fell to 1.781mln (exp. 1.905mln, prev. 1.896mln).
The big focus ahead is NFP, expected at +200k (prev. 12k), which alongside CPI next week could sway the Fed’s upcoming December decision. Currently, Fed pricing leans towards a 73% chance of a 25bps rate cut, with Waller’s recent remarks (leans towards a cut) serving as the major guide for the upcoming announcement, as others keep options open.
Also on Friday Prelim UoM (Dec) is due, and the headline is expected to rise to 73 from 71.8, alongside US Consumer Credit (Oct, exp. 10.0bln).
Scheduled Fed speakers include Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack, and Daly.
EUR:
Gains were helped by the soft US data.
Bloomberg updates from France, unveiled French President Macron is looking to join forces with the Socialist Party, “A strategy that would split a large left-wing coalition in the National Assembly and potentially return enough power to centrists to be able to break the country’s political gridlock.”
Later in the day, PM Barnier resigned as expected.
On data, EZ Retail Sales beat Y/Y, rising 1.9% (exp. 1.7%), while the M/M fell by 0.5% (exp. -0.3%). The latest Reuters ECB Poll revealed 73/75 economists see the ECB cutting the deposit rate by 25bps to 3.0% next Thursday, whereas 2/75 forecast a 50bps rate cut.
On Friday, EZ Final Employment and Revised Q3 GDP figures are expected to remain unchanged from the prior.
EQUITIES:
EURO:
– DAX: +0.67% at 20,367, FTSE 100: +0.16% at 8,349, CAC 40: +0.37% at 7,331, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.63% at 4,950
US:
– SPX -0.19% at 6,075, NDX -0.31% at 21,425, DJIA -0.55% at 44,766, RUT -1.25% at 2,396
Sectors:
– Materials -1.4%, Industrials -1.21%, Health -1.13%, Communication Services -0.51%, Real Estate -0.28%, Technology -0.18%, Financials +0.22%, Utilities +0.25%, Energy +0.34%, Consumer Staples +0.39%, Consumer Discretionary +0.95%
OIL:
– OPEC+ voluntary cuts and collective cuts extended
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold prices dipped below $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, pressured by firming U.S. Treasury yields after a modest rise in weekly jobless claims, as markets focused on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose 0.6%, weighing on bullion, which offers no yield.
Attention now shifts to Friday’s jobs report, anticipated showing an addition of 200,000 jobs in November. A weaker-than-expected result could provide support for gold prices.
Traders are assigning a 74% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, reflecting expectations for policy-easing.
Yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the resilience of the U.S. economy while signaling a cautious approach to rate cuts. Gold, which typically benefits in low-interest-rate environments, remains sensitive to these developments.
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.541 -0.001
US 6-MO: 4.4 +0.01
US 1-YR: 4.237 +0.013
US 5-YR: 4.076 +0.012
US 10-YR: 4.178 -0.004
US 30-YR: 4.335 -0.014
TWO’s/TENS: 0.03 -0.03
CRYPTO
– Record highs vs Gold
– BTC is up 55% since the election
– The rally has added $1.4 trillion to the crypto ecosystem’s market cap and pushed bitcoin above Saudi Aramco as the 7th largest ‘asset’ in the world.
– Inflows have EXPLODED
– BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed $50 billion in assets under management, achieving the milestone in just 228 days – more than five times faster than any other ETF in history.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there.
Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyvu1nWjOlI
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DQhsaSnOrBI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa8k8IQ1_X0&t=636s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAlPjMiaKdw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uCYhevAJhM
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emutat3_IP0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2AqeH1GPs4
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yBD95vi7OF4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESPReJNEBqw
House of the day:
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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