MARKET REPORT
Review:
– US CPI TOMORROW! (Nothing else matters)
– Dovish BOJ sources. YEN hit, a ‘BoJ sources’ piece from Bloomberg stated that the BoJ is said to see little need to end negative rates in December
– Dollar flat across board except gains vs Yen (reversal of Thursdays statement)
– Equities ND outperforms, DOW + 0.45% @ 36442, ES + 0.39% @4625, ND +0.9% @ 16242
– GC puking continues -0.85% @ 1997, SI down, but less -0.58%, @ $23.14
– Coins BTC & ETH PUKE down 6%
– Crude recovers losses to finish unch Trading $71.43, +0.20c a barrel
Upcoming: – AU NAB Business Conditions, US CPI
– FOMC, ECB, BoE, China activity data.
MAJORS:
DX:
Low range trading day with all majors unch with the exclusion of the YEN with BOJ sources walking back Thursdays Hawkish statements. All eyes on CPI with a short dollar market hoping for a low ball number to withdraw NFP nerves and firmly shut the door on murmers of another Hike and reaffirm the end of cycle. CPI Tues morn 8.30 EST.
AUD:
Had 65.50 as a hold. It touched twice and bounced. Currently 65.70. Nothing to expect pre CPI. Strong CPI will see 65 a ceiling, weak a FIRM base.
EUR:
92.75 to 93.05 QUIET session. All eyes on CPI tom morn.
Pound Pound:
“Id be favour buying a dip on a turn. 125.30 to 126.30 immediate.”
Yest market report
Touched and bounced off 125.30 multiple times, closing 125.54 but did hit 125.90.
A weak CPI will see head to 127. AS with 65 in the AUD, 125 either a firm ceiling or base post.
Yen:
Had a 144 handle as value but we never saw it. 145.30 was low pre the leak. Straight to 146.50. CPI. 144 solid base or handle, not that you’ll see either way post 😉
Gold and Silver:
More weakness as longs continue to get squeezed waiting for a bounce to get out which never came now forced to hold over CPI fingers crossed. 1997 close.
A buy here to see 2017 pre CPI. 1990 a base PRE CPI. After? Hands of the gods. Or the printers at the Reserve 😉
US Equities:
Consumer Staples +0.97%, Industrials +0.9%, Materials +0.71%, Financials +0.68%, Utilities +0.67%, Health +0.61%, Technology +0.42%, Real Estate +0.33%, Energy +0.12%, Consumer Discretionary +0.12%, Communication Services -1.04%.
DOW & ES eased higher, catching a bid from the open and grinding higher until the close with the ND outperforming. The upside came despite notable weakness in heavyweights, exception being notable upside in the Semiconductor space aside from Nvidia (NVDA).
Oil:
The crude complex was marginally firmer to start the week in a day of thin newsflow and lack of drivers ahead of the key risk events later in the week.
While oil-specific headlines were light, over the weekend China experienced rising disinflationary pressures with the November PPI and CPI declining more-than-expected. On the day, WTI and Brent trundled to session lows of USD 70.35/bbl and 75.01/bbl, respectively in lack of any fundamental catalyst before paring the move throughout the US session to hit highs of 71.81/bbl and 76.50/bbl. Elsewhere, Citi writes that OPEC+ will need to maintain cuts next year to balance the market, adding OPEC+ can keep prices supported at USD 70-80/bbl. Reuters citing analysts and traders later said OPEC+ oil output cuts of 2.2mln BPD in Q1 may not be long enough as crude oil physical and futures show increasing signs of surplus ahead of their implementation. Looking ahead, the week is packed with risk events, including US CPI (Tues), FOMC (Wed), BoE, ECB, and SNB (Thurs).
Oil report courtesy of https://www.zerohedge.com/
Bond Yields:
1 Mo: 5.382 -0.013 6Mo 5.404 +0.013 1yr 5.136 -0.006 5yr 4.246 -0.009 10yr 4.237 -0.008 and the 30yr 4.328 +0.002
2’s/10’s -0.47
Crytpo:
Smoked.
End of story.
Post 41.5k EVERYONE jumped on bandwagon, and got smoked as a result. Wouldn’t be surprised for another squeeze down to 39k before resumption of upward movement. Anything with a 39/Low 40 handle is a buy. Still favour upside. This was just a long squeeze. Low 2100’s a buy ETH.
Best of luck out there.
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