MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Good morning! And in case I don’t see you; Good afternoon, Good evening, and Goodnight.
Moulin du Bazacle, 1250
Creation, in France, of the first joint stock company
Around 1250, some citizens of Toulouse joined forces to set up the « Société des Moulins de Bazacle », whose ninety-six shares were traded at a price that varied according to economic conditions and the performance of the mills.
It became the ‘Société civile anonyme du Moulin du Bazacle’ from the 19th century.
In 1888, the water mill was turned into a hydroelectric plant. In 1910, it became the ‘Société toulousaine d’électricité du Bazacle’. It was nationalised in 1946, like the rest of the electricity sector.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
SUNNY HOSTIN “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
KAMALA HARRIS “There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– Mixed US Durable Goods
– Durable Goods for September declined by less than expected, with downside primarily due to transport figures.
– Strong UoM
– UoM for October was revised higher to 70.5 from 68.9, above the expected 69.0. Conditions and Expectations were both revised higher to 64.9 (prev. 62.7) and 74.1 (prev. 72.9), respectively, with the 1yr inflation expectations ticking lower to 2.7% from 2.9%. 5yr was unchanged at 3%.
COMPANIES:
– AON (AON) released earnings per share at 2.72, compared to market expectations of 2.48
– Colgate-Palmolive (CL) released earnings per share at 0.91, compared to market expectations of 0.88
– Boeing considering sale of space unit
– TPR/CPRI deal blocked
– AAPL working on diabetes products
– WDC earnings impress
GENERAL:
– Trump recording Rogan Podcast today. Harris refused offer
– Euro Bourses mixed to lower
– Deluge of ECB speak
– Yale’s $41.4B Fund reports second lowest return in the Ivy leagues
– Washington Post announced that it would not endorse a candidate for president either, for the first time in 36 years.
– Bezos terminated editorial by the editorial board endorsing Harris
– Arizona officials report itll take two weeks to tabulate election in Maricopa county. Of course.
– GOP Chair says US must consider direct military action if North Korean troops in Russia
– European natural gas futures climbed toward €43 per megawatt-hour, reaching their highest level since December 1
– Rate-cut expectations tumbled this week – especially for 2025
Trump Trade surged this week
– VIX closes week on high
– Iran will reportedly not act if Israeli response is limited
– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
Week Ahead:
– Highlights include US NFP, ISM Mfg, PCE, GDP, EZ and Australian CPI, UK Budget, BoJ and Japan LDP Election
Earnings:
– GOOGL, AMD, META, MSFT, AMZN, INTC, and AAPL
MAJORS:
DX:
– The dollar rallied for the 4th straight week to its highest weekly close since June
EURO:
– Deluge of ECB speak, again, whereby German Ifo topped expectations all current conditions, business climate, and expectations.
YEN:
– Sunday sees the Japanese general election in which the ruling LDP is set to lose its majority but remain the largest party and may need to widen its coalition. Thereafter, there is the BoJ rate decision on Thursday in which the Bank is widely expected to stand pat on rates, whereby focus will be on clues over future easing.
EQUITIES:
NVDA & TSLA saved MAG7 this week
NVDA toe for toe with APPL as world’s most valuable
EUR:
– DAX +0.11% at 19,464, FTSE 100 -0.25% at 8,249, CAC 40 -0.08% at 7,498, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.15% at 4,943
US:
– SPX -0.03% at 5,808, NDX +0.59% at 20,352, DJIA -0.61% at 42,114, RUT -0.49% at 2,208
Sectors:
– Communication Services +0.71%, Technology +0.59%, Consumer Discretionary +0.48%, Energy +0.06%, Industrials -0.25%, Health -0.53%, Materials -0.64%, Real Estate -0.76%, Consumer Staples -0.76%, Financials -1.05%, Utilities -1.46%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Gold rose to $2,740 per ounce on Friday recovering from earlier profit-taking as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US election bolstered safe-haven demand. The precious metal has risen over 32% this year, driven by heightened safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and a half-point cut in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate.
Despite the strengthening U.S. dollar, which is set for its fourth consecutive weekly rise amid increasing odds of a Donald Trump victory, gold prices have managed to rally
– Gold rallied for the 6th week in the last 7, hitting a new intraday record high during the week
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures rallied 2.3% to settle at $71.8 per barrel on Friday, bouncing back from a two-day decline and securing a weekly gain of 3.7%.
Investors are closely monitoring ongoing tensions in the Middle East, ceasefire negotiations, and the upcoming U.S. elections.
The anticipated talks between Israel and Hamas to address the Gaza conflict have traders on edge regarding potential Israeli strikes on Iran.
Market participants are watching for potential output adjustments from OPEC+ and the implications of the US election.
The oil market has experienced significant volatility driven by Middle Eastern unrest and concerns over a potential surplus due to rising production from non-OPEC+ countries, alongside OPEC’s plans to relax output restrictions. In the coming weeks, investors will also keep an eye on Japan’s election, important interest rate decisions from three major central banks, and the announcement of the new UK government’s budget.
BONDS:
– Notice that today saw yields spike notably after WaPo refused to endorse Kamala
CRYPTO
– Cryptocurrency prices have reversed early gains and are broadly lower during U.S. afternoon hours on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. is probing stablecoin issuer Tether for violations of sanctions and anti-money laundering rules.
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to another asset, typically the U.S. dollar. With a market cap in-excess of $120 billion, tether {{USDT}} is by far the most widely used stablecoin.
Taking to X shortly following the story, Tether Chief Technology officer Paolo Ardoino said the WSJ is “regurgitating old noise.” There is no indication, said Ardoino, that Tether is under investigation.
BTC went from 69k to 66k.
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r9DkTrZjx3A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY3luFEvjIY
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pCv7k_Hzvg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3c32wBYdU0
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xqA-L6Ev6s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Szzj6XN6pA
We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error. As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.
Best of luck, All.
