MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Old Hamburg SE
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
– SUNNY HOSTIN: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?
KAMALA HARRIS: There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of — and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– ‘Soft’ Survey data today (from Philly and Richmond Feds) were better than expected BUT – inflation expectations are surging once again
– Richmond Fed improves in October, albeit still negative
COMPANIES:
– Lockheed Martin (-6%) released earnings per share at 6.84, compared to market expectations of 6.50
– General Electric (-9%) released earnings per share at 1.15, compared to market expectations of 1.14
– General Motors (+10%) released earnings per share at 2.96, compared to market expectations of 2.40
– Raytheon Technologies (UNCH) released earnings per share at 1.45 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.34
– Philip Morris International (+10.5%) released earnings per share at 1.91 USD, compared to market expectations of 1.82
– Verizon (-5%) released earnings per share at 1.19, compared to market expectations of 1.18
– Fiserv (+1%) released earnings per share at 2.30, compared to market expectations of 2.26
– Moody’s (-4%) released earnings per share at 3.21, compared to market expectations of 2.87
GENERAL:
-Rate cut Expectations lower on the day
– Bets on Trump continue to surge
– Iranian embassy officials reportedly involved in the assassination attempt of Israeli PM
– Netanyahu is to hold consultations tonight with cabinet re. response to Iran
– IMF WEO sees US growth forecasts lifted and China’s cut
– JPM’s CEO Dimon would reportedly consider a role in a Harris administration
– GM rallies on strong earnings while VZ and LMT sink after underwhelming reports.
– Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
Coming Up:
– US Existing Home Sales.
– BoC Policy Announcement.
Speakers:
– Speakers: BoE’s Breeden, Bailey; Fed’s Bowman; ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Cipollone; RBNZ’s Orr; BoJ’s Governor Ueda; BoC’s Macklem & Rogers.
Earnings:
– Michelin, Carrefour, Heineken, Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Volvo Car, Iberdrola, Barratt, Redrow, WPP, Reckitt Benckiser, Roche; AT&T, Boston Scientific, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Roper Technologies, General Dynamics, Boeing, T-Mobile US, Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, Altria Group.
MAJORS:
DX:
– ‘Trump trade’ continued to be cited as he garners further momentum in winning the US election in two weeks. In addition, the recent combination of growing Middle East tensions and continued selling in the Treasury space seemingly support the dollar.
ING believes the size of the bond and FX moves are now being exacerbated by some deleveraging ahead of the US election.
The latest October data saw the Richmond Fed Comp Index rise to -14 (prev. -21), supported by improvements in new orders and shipments, albeit, the print marked a whole year of declining activity.
Catalysts in the near term remain light for the Dollar, as the Weekly Claims data on Thursday lies ahead, but until then, the US election and Israeli response will be heeded.
EURO:
– ECB remarks, where dove Centeno said he thinks the neutral rate is at about 2% or slightly below, and the undershooting EZ inflation target is a new risk and could stifle growth. Neutral colleague Villeroy towed Centeno’s latter remark but added that inflation could be at target in early 2025, and there is no reason for rates to stay restrictive in 2025. Lastly, President Lagarde said inflation numbers have been relatively assuring, doesn’t know where neutral is and is confident the inflation target will be reached in 2025.
Wednesday will see the flash Consumer Confidence figure for October (exp. -12.5, prev. -12.9) and another slew of remarks from the ECB, namely, Lagarde, Lane, and Cipollone
POUND:
– Wednesday, where the BoC is expected to cut rates by 50bps to 3.75%, with money markets pricing in a 91% chance of a 50bps cut, although some analysts do see a 25bps cut
YEN
– Remarks from BoJ’s Executive Director Kato, unveiled that the BoJ are not targeting an FX level but are carefully looking at upside risks from rising import prices.
USD/JPY crept above the 151 handle, closing the gap to the 200 DMA (151.35), with ING noting markets are adding some political risk premium into the Yen after the latest polls showed the ruling LPD-Komeito coalition losing support ahead of the election on Sunday.
EQUITIES:
EUR:
– DAX: -0.13% at 19,436, FTSE 100: -0.14% at 8,307, CAC 40: -0.01% at 7,535, Euro Stoxx 50: -0.03% at 4,940
US:
– SPX -0.05% at 5,851, NDX +0.11% at 20,384, DJIA -0.02% at 42,925, RUT -0.37% at 2,232
Sectors:
– Industrials -1.19%, Materials -0.86%, Utilities -0.40%, Consumer Discretionary -0.27%, Health -0.16%, Financials -0.12%, Technology +0.15%, Real Estate +0.16%, Energy +0.20%, Communication Services +0.35%, Consumer Staples +0.92%
GOLD/SILVER:
– Silver continues to outperform Gold
OIL:
– Crude back above $70
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.759 -0.021
US 6-MO: 4.478 +0.006
US 1-YR: 4.259 +0.005
US 5-YR: 4.006 +0.03
US 10-YR: 4.208 0.026
US 30-YR: 4.496 +0.01
TWO’s/TENS: 0.18 +0.02
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ojdtdW47j3w
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tEZ5d5flUHI
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnPV6CNdG3M
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahu_2lXtHiw
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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