MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
View and Floorplan London Stock Exchange 1752
This floorplan of the London Stock Exchange was published in the Hamburger Correspondent, a daily newspaper, and probably served as information for merchants with dealings in London. The space in this diagram is segregated according to ‘nation’ as well as commodity. Hamburg merchants – Hamburg was under direct Imperial rule from the Holy Roman Empire of German Nations and thus enjoyed the status of autonomous ‘state’ – had their own section in the centre of the hall.
You were found in clear conditions. But you’re handsome in the Fog.
“Voters seem to forget when politicians ‘give’ you money, it is the voters’ money they have already taken.”
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics: Govt-manipulated data with un-reported historic downward revisions to make the economy look more favorable):
DATA:
– US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge In September
– After surprising top the upside in August, Housing Starts and Building Permits disappointed in September, declining more than expected (-0.5% MoM and -2.9% MoM respectively):
Multi-family permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and multi-family starts dropped for the second straight month). Single-family starts rose 2.7% MoM and permits inched higher by 0.3% MoM
– The Fed cuts short-term rates, mortgage-rates rise, and builders slow their building plans: Yeah don’t think that’s meant to work that way
– Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic “I’m not in a rush to get to neutral,”
– Hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI
– UK Retail Sales surprisingly rise
COMPANIES:
– American Express (-3.22%) released earnings per share at 3.49, compared to market expectations of 3.38
– NetFlix up +11.09% after earnings beat and surge in subs
– Netflix (NFLX) released earnings per share at 5.4, compared to market expectations of 5.09
– CVS Health (-5.02%) replaced CEO Karen Lynch with David Joyner, a CVS veteran who retired before returning to the company last year, after investors including activist Glenview Capital pressured the company to improve its stagnant share price.
– It also withdrew its 2024 forecast and gave an outlook for third-quarter earnings far below analyst estimates.
– Upbeat Counterpoint Research comments on iPhone 16 sales in China
GENERAL:
– 94-year-old Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway offloaded even more Bank of America shares this week to sustain <10% regulatory threshold, a move triggered by the bank’s own share buybacks, which pushed Berkshire’s stake back above the 10% mark. Buffett’s strategy is clear: keep the stake below this threshold to avoid constant SEC reporting that results with every sale.
– Traders are now pricing in only 42 basis points of rate cuts for November and December
– The U.S. budget deficit grew to $1.833 trillion for fiscal 2024, the highest outside of the COVID-19 era, as interest on the federal debt topped $1 trillion
– CBS hit with FCC Complaint charging “Significant and Intentional News Distortion” over Edited Kamala Interview
– https://twitter.com/i/status/1843703383087276529
– Fun fact: In the last election Biden voters owned 70% of the wealth in the United States and Trump voters owned 30%
Silver increased to a near 12-year high of 32.96 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Silver gained 6.96%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 42.87%.
– Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-3.78%), Crude Oil WTI (-1.66%), Gasoline (-1.51%) and Brent Crude Oil (-1.44%).
– Top commodity gainers are Cheese (7.65%), Rapeseed (1.21%) and Coffee (0.78%). Biggest losers are Cocoa (-3.41%), Orange Juice (-3.27%) and Wheat (-2.89%)
– Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down.
Coming Up:
– PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMI
– German Producer Prices.
Speakers:
– RBNZ’s Conway; RBA’s Hauser; Fed’s Logan, Kashkari, Schmid
Earnings:
– [MON] NUE; [TUES] DHR, RTX, GE, PM, VZ, FI, LMT, TXN; [WED] TMO, BSX, T, KO, NEE, TMUS, IBM, TSLA, NOW; [THURS] UPS, HON, SPGI, UNP; [FRI] HCA
MAJORS:
DX:
– DXY heads into the weekend below its 200 DMA (103.78), but off lows of 103.45, marking its third consecutive week of gains
EURO:
The euro rose to $1.086 but is on track for its third consecutive weekly decline as money markets raised their expectations for more European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. The ECB lowered rates for the third time this year, citing better control of inflation but worsening economic prospects for the eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks were interpreted as a downgrade of the economic outlook, prompting markets to price in a 25 basis point cut at each meeting until mid-2025. A 25 bps rate cut in December is fully expected, with a 25% chance of a larger 50 bps move. In contrast, strong US economic data has reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts
POUND:
– The British pound rose above $1.30 after UK retail sales data showed unexpectedly strong consumer spending in September, suggesting resilience in the economy. Retail sales volumes increased by 0.3%, surpassing expectations of a 0.3% decline, despite concerns about potential tax hikes in the upcoming government budget. This marks a 1.9% rise in sales for the third quarter, the largest since mid-2021. The data led to speculation that the Bank of England might reconsider its dovish stance on interest rates. However, the pound was still set for its third weekly drop against a strong US dollar.
EQUITIES:
– Banks were the winners this week, Energy the losers, Tech Unch
EUR:
– DAX: +0.38% at 19,658, FTSE 100: -0.32% at 8,358, CAC 40: +0.39% at 7,613, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.77% at 4,985
US:
– SPX +0.40% at 5,865, NDX +0.66% at 20,324, DJIA +0.09% at 43,276, RUT -0.21% at 2,276
Sectors: Energy -0.35%, Financials +0.02%, Consumer Staples +0.18%, Industrials +0.26%, Consumer Discretionary +0.45%, Materials +0.47%, Health +0.48%, Technology +0.48%, Utilities +0.56%, Real Estate +0.73%, Communication Services +0.92%
OIL:
– WTI crude oil futures dropped 2% to settle at $69.2 per barrel on Friday, marking the biggest weekly losses since early September, falling more than 8%.
The decline was driven by weaker demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA, slowing economic growth in China and signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
China’s refinery output has now declined for the sixth consecutive month, influenced by weak fuel demand and the rise of electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
U.S. crude oil production hit another record last week, although support for prices came from a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales in September.
Investors are closely watching potential developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, which could impact global oil supply, as diplomatic efforts signal a potential easing of tensions. Report courtesy of newquark.
BONDS:
YIELD CHANGE
US 1-MO: 4.778 +0.008
US 6-MO: 4.457 -0.004
US 1-YR: 4.203 -0.023
US 5-YR: 3.88 -0.028
US 10-YR: 4.083 -0.013
US 30-YR: 4.389 -0.005
TWO’s/TENS: +0.13 +0.02
The 2Y Yield hitting 4.00% and back down while the 10Y yield dipped below 4.00% midweek, only to push back to the highs of the week this morning
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING, STOP WHAT ISNT
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD4izuDMUQA&t=38s
Song of the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnuT9Vk7YgU
Joke of the Day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM3fRvHkpDM
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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