Market In Review 11/2022
Some of the heat in commodities came off last week, but they still sit at elevated prices. Talks over the weekend indicate a ceasefire in the Ukraine is imminent, but do not hold your breath for that.
Market In Review 10/2022
Last week we said the Aussie dollar should do OK, in fact most commodity currencies would. I’d like to run through the price of commodities for you since the Russian invasion of Ukraine just two weeks ago.
Market In Review 09/2022
A week of round turns and high volatility left us pretty much back where we started in most markets. Whether you agree with Russia’s line of defending against the creep of NATO to its borders, or the West’s defence of democracy, the impact of the geopolitical risk will be around for some time to come. That means more volatility ahead in all markets. It will whipsaw around from each headline posting, whether that is positive or negative.
Market In Review 08/2022
The USA is on holidays today so it should be a quiet start to the week. Data wise, there is a bunch of PMI’s out this week from Europe and USA. Personally I do not put a lot of weighting on PMIs as they are only a survey of expectations, not hard data of what has actually been manufactured or serviced. Also, there is the Kiwi Central Bank meeting, with the RBNZ expected to raise again to 1%.
Market In Review 07/2022
The USA inflation numbers printed the highest in 40 years at 7.5%, which the market took as a near certainty of a rate rise. This was reinforced by the US Fed member Bullard voicing extremely hawkish comments later that day. The odds of a rate rise of 50 basis points at the next Fed meeting shot up to 70%. The market was even pricing in a 25% chance of a 25 bp move before the next Fed meeting in March, a chance this week in fact.
Market In Review 06/2022
This week we have some confidence measures from Australia and the British GDP rate, but all eyes will be on the USA inflation number due Thursday night. The CPI figure has the potential to provide the most volatility this week.
Market In Review – 05/2022
It is going to be an interesting year for markets and valuations. The US Fed is staring down the tight rope of raising rates and reducing balance sheet, all the while, keeping asset prices from tanking. Ever since Greenspan introduced the “Fed put” in the 1990’s, the Fed has consistently fed (pun intended) asset prices, and created bubbles everywhere along the way. Alan started with equities, creating the “dot com” bubble, then rotated into mortgages, creating the GFC.
Market In Review – 04/2022
The stock market sell off has been an aggressive start to the year, with major indices down 9%, and worse in the tech market, with the NASDAQ down 15% from all-time highs set in November 2021. Whilst at this stage it is only a correction (a move of 10%) and not yet officially a bear market (that line is 20%), the media is taking it with some surprise – and panic. To those who watch the markets it is no surprise at all.
Market In Review – 50/2021
A huge week of data as we run into the Christmas break. We will have announcements from a number of Central Banks with Thursday bringing us the FOMC, SNB, UK and EU followed by the BOJ on Friday. Whilst none are expected to increase rates, all of them have some form of loose monetary policy (either via currency intervention or quantitative easing) that could possibly be tightened.
Market In Review – 46/2021
Several talking heads from Central Banks could give us some volatility this week. And there is a number of key data points to focus on as inflation continue to heats up. For some, wage growth is not going with inflation – which is concerning for those in the lower end of economic income. USA is getting wage growth as well as hot inflation, so the market has now priced in a full 1% rate rise by July 2022 and a further 1.5% by this time next year, with Dec 2022 futures at 2.53%.
