Market In Review 06/2022
This week we have some confidence measures from Australia and the British GDP rate, but all eyes will be on the USA inflation number due Thursday night. The CPI figure has the potential to provide the most volatility this week.
Market In Review – 05/2022
It is going to be an interesting year for markets and valuations. The US Fed is staring down the tight rope of raising rates and reducing balance sheet, all the while, keeping asset prices from tanking. Ever since Greenspan introduced the “Fed put” in the 1990’s, the Fed has consistently fed (pun intended) asset prices, and created bubbles everywhere along the way. Alan started with equities, creating the “dot com” bubble, then rotated into mortgages, creating the GFC.
Market In Review – 04/2022
The stock market sell off has been an aggressive start to the year, with major indices down 9%, and worse in the tech market, with the NASDAQ down 15% from all-time highs set in November 2021. Whilst at this stage it is only a correction (a move of 10%) and not yet officially a bear market (that line is 20%), the media is taking it with some surprise – and panic. To those who watch the markets it is no surprise at all.
Market In Review – 50/2021
A huge week of data as we run into the Christmas break. We will have announcements from a number of Central Banks with Thursday bringing us the FOMC, SNB, UK and EU followed by the BOJ on Friday. Whilst none are expected to increase rates, all of them have some form of loose monetary policy (either via currency intervention or quantitative easing) that could possibly be tightened.
Market In Review – 46/2021
Several talking heads from Central Banks could give us some volatility this week. And there is a number of key data points to focus on as inflation continue to heats up. For some, wage growth is not going with inflation – which is concerning for those in the lower end of economic income. USA is getting wage growth as well as hot inflation, so the market has now priced in a full 1% rate rise by July 2022 and a further 1.5% by this time next year, with Dec 2022 futures at 2.53%.
Market In Review – 45/2021
The global economy is showing signs of sustained strength and growth with many of the G20 on the brink or already reducing quantitative easing. We are now at the start of the uptrend of rate rises. New Zealand is the leader in this regard, with no QE they already have moved rates up 0.25% to 0.5% and will most likely move again this month – just a matter of how big the move will be.
Market In Review – 44/2021
A busy week of economic releases ahead of us with the focus on the Central Banks of Australia (Tuesday afternoon), USA Fed (Thursday morning) and the Bank of England (Thursday evening). None of the banks are expected to raise rates at this point, however there is high expectations that the Australian RBA will reduce their massaging of the yield curve.
Market In Review – 43/2021
This week brings us several Central Bank meetings. The BOC release is late Wednesday night with a press conference an hour after. Rates expected to remain at 0.25% but the conference will be interesting to note with inflation ticking higher. Followed by the BOJ mid afternoon on Thursday. Not much expected from that, as usual. The ECB is Thursday evening, and their press conference will also be key to note what their forward guidance is.
Market In Review – 42/2021
A few inflation numbers hitting the market this week that might provide local currency volatility. First up is New Zealand early Monday morning. Followed by UK and Canadian on Wednesday night. Chinese GDP numbers Monday lunch time could set the tone for the week, especially those currencies that are heavily influenced by the Chinese economy such as Australia. Friday night we get a raft of PMI data out of Europe.
Market In Review – 41/2021
Will be a slow start to the week with Canadian Thanksgiving and USA observing Columbus Day holidays. From Wednesday things begin to get busier with USA Inflation report Wednesday night and the Minutes from the FOMC in the early hours of Thursday morning. A few key US Fed members will speak after the Minutes. Then later Thursday morning we have Australian employment numbers.
