Market In Review 16/2022
Whilst the impact of two shortened weeks and a lot of traders and dealers out of the market for holidays, this week has some interesting points to focus on. We will be getting key data from across the globe that will show a full months’ worth of figures impacted by the Russian/Ukrainian conflict.
Market In Review 15/2022
Stocks continue to defy the market normality and remain at pre Ukraine invasion prices, despite the surge in bond yields and commodity prices. Whilst oil has calmed down somewhat, settling under $100/barrel, the tail risks are still there.
Market In Review 14/2022
Last week was a consolidation of prices as we thought. Although stock markets are ignoring the bond market as it continues to strengthen.
Market In Review 13/2022
Commodity currencies continued to strengthen with the Loonie the strongest over the last week, whilst the Yen had the biggest move, continuing to weaken. Euro and Pound also remained weak as expected.
Market In Review 12/2022
Funnily enough the stock market is ignoring all the risk events happening, and still are happening. Russian war in Ukraine continues unabated and could easily escalate across the border into NATO territory. China is still in COVID lockdown and could lock down more regions as the virus rages.
Market In Review 11/2022
Some of the heat in commodities came off last week, but they still sit at elevated prices. Talks over the weekend indicate a ceasefire in the Ukraine is imminent, but do not hold your breath for that.
Market In Review 10/2022
Last week we said the Aussie dollar should do OK, in fact most commodity currencies would. I’d like to run through the price of commodities for you since the Russian invasion of Ukraine just two weeks ago.
Market In Review 09/2022
A week of round turns and high volatility left us pretty much back where we started in most markets. Whether you agree with Russia’s line of defending against the creep of NATO to its borders, or the West’s defence of democracy, the impact of the geopolitical risk will be around for some time to come. That means more volatility ahead in all markets. It will whipsaw around from each headline posting, whether that is positive or negative.
Market In Review 08/2022
The USA is on holidays today so it should be a quiet start to the week. Data wise, there is a bunch of PMI’s out this week from Europe and USA. Personally I do not put a lot of weighting on PMIs as they are only a survey of expectations, not hard data of what has actually been manufactured or serviced. Also, there is the Kiwi Central Bank meeting, with the RBNZ expected to raise again to 1%.
Market In Review 07/2022
The USA inflation numbers printed the highest in 40 years at 7.5%, which the market took as a near certainty of a rate rise. This was reinforced by the US Fed member Bullard voicing extremely hawkish comments later that day. The odds of a rate rise of 50 basis points at the next Fed meeting shot up to 70%. The market was even pricing in a 25% chance of a 25 bp move before the next Fed meeting in March, a chance this week in fact.
