A Second Day of Losses as Trump Rebuffs Iran’s Reparations Demand — Then CoreWeave and Supermicro Deliver After the Bell
Data:
Main Theme: “Weary of the Standoff” — The S&P fell for a second consecutive session as the US–Iran impasse hardened, with Trump rebuffing Tehran’s demand for war reparations and Araghchi stating there is “no possibility of restarting negotiations.” Brent rose 1.4% to $88.91. Then after the close, CoreWeave disclosed a $104 billion backlog and Supermicro guided revenue 25% above consensus — both stocks jumped double digits.
Tuesday was a session of two distinct halves. The cash session was governed by geopolitics and drifted lower: the Dow fell 184.13 points, the Nasdaq 0.60%, and Alphabet dropped 3.61%. The trigger was an escalation of rhetoric on both sides — Trump demanded Iran compensate victims’ families and regional countries, then rebuked Tehran’s own reparations demand and said he would wait for economic pressure to build, while Araghchi ruled out restarting talks. The Wall Street Journal reported that a US military helicopter fired at the rudder of a Panama-flagged ship whose crew ignored warnings from personnel enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
After the bell, the AI infrastructure trade delivered its strongest evidence yet. CoreWeave reported revenue up 112% year-over-year with a $104 billion sales backlog and a further $25 billion of commitments already earmarked for Q3; Supermicro guided current-quarter revenue to $14.5–15.5 billion against a $11.82 billion consensus on the back of more than $60 billion in new fiscal-2026 orders. Both stocks rose roughly 10–12% in extended trading.
🟥 U.S. Equities | Second Straight Decline
| Index | Closing Level | Net Points Change | % | Session Stance |
| S&P 500 | 7,728.20 | 🟥 −24.91 | −0.32% | Second modest drop since Friday’s record |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 53,791.85 | 🟥 −184.13 | −0.34% | — |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,445.45 | 🟥 −159.91 | −0.60% | Weakest — megacaps led lower; ~2% from its record |
| Russell 2000 | 3,027.12 | 🟩 +9.72 | +0.32% | The only major index higher |
The small-cap divergence is the most interesting feature of the session. The Russell 2000 rose while every large-cap index fell — consistent with a market that still believes the Fed is on hold after Friday’s payroll contraction, but is selling the megacap complex on idiosyncratic news. The Russell is up 22% in 2026 against 12.9% for the S&P.
Alphabet was the standout decliner, falling 3.61% — its fourth losing session in five since Google announced last week that it is reshuffling its artificial intelligence divisions. Nvidia gave up a morning gain to close just below flat, despite announcing Monday that it is partnering with six large asset managers to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure. Apple fell more than 1%, extending Monday’s decline. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet together dragged the Nasdaq lower.
Other notable movers: On Holding headed for its worst day on record after Q2 revenue of CHF 850.3 million missed the CHF 878.4 million consensus (adjusted EPS of CHF 0.35 beat CHF 0.34) and the company guided full-year revenue growth to the low-20% range. Trump Media & Technology Group fell in premarket after a Q2 net loss widened to $238.1 million from about $20 million a year earlier, largely on unrealised losses tied to cryptocurrency holdings. Best Buy was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist with a target raised to $95 from $81 on AI integration into consumer electronics and replacement demand.
🟧 Commodities | Brent Back Near $89
Brent crude rose about 1.4% to $88.91 after swinging between $87 and $90 during the session; WTI closed up 1.3% at $83.20. That extends a run that has now recovered essentially all of last week’s decline — Brent fell more than 7% last week on Washington’s signals that a deal was in sight.
The intraday path illustrates how headline-driven this market has become. Brent was up 1.45% at $89 overnight, then reversed lower after Pakistan said the situation is “moving toward peace,” before recovering as the day’s harder statements accumulated. There has been no substantive progress.
The specific escalations on Tuesday:
- The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reiterated that the Strait would not reopen until Tehran’s conditions are met, per Reuters.
- Trump demanded Iran compensate victims’ families and Middle Eastern countries, then rebuked Iran’s own demand for reparations, saying he would wait for economic pressure to build — “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”
- Araghchi said there is “no possibility of restarting negotiations” under current conditions.
- A US military helicopter fired at the rudder of a Panama-flagged ship after its crew ignored warnings from personnel enforcing the blockade on Iranian ports, per the Wall Street Journal.
Carried over from the weekend: Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, and an ADNOC-operated tanker was attacked in Hormuz. The war is now in its sixth month.
🟦 Rates | Yields Ease, but the Long End Is Near 20-Year Highs
Treasury yields eased on the day, but the weekly picture is the more important one. The 10-year traded back above 4.7% overnight before slipping below it during the session, and the 30-year is back near 20-year highs. Yields have surged since Friday morning’s post-payrolls lows, when the 10-year touched 4.657% and the 2-year 4.203%.
Investrade characterised the macro tone precisely: “risk-on with an inflationary undertow.” That is the correct frame. Equities remain within 2% of record highs because the labour market repricing is intact; the long end is selling because the energy channel has reopened. These two forces are now working against each other, and Wednesday’s CPI adjudicates between them.
🌙 After the Bell | The AI Infrastructure Trade Answers
This was the most consequential part of the session, and it went decisively the other way from the cash market.
CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 10–12% in extended trading.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Context |
| Revenue | $2.58bn, +112% YoY | +24% sequentially; narrowly beat the ~$2.56bn consensus |
| Sales backlog | $104 billion | From $99.4bn at Q1 |
| Additional Q3 commitments | $25 billion | Already earmarked |
| Loss per share | Narrowed vs Q1’s −$1.40 | Smaller than the −$1.22 to −$1.45 expected |
| Q1 baseline | Revenue $2.08bn (+111.7%), capex $7.7bn, FCF −$4.71bn | The funding gap remains the bear case |
Why the reaction was different this time. CoreWeave had fallen after each of its last five earnings reports, averaging a 17% decline across the last four, per Bloomberg and CNBC data. The stock traded at $87.91 against a $138 analyst target, having fallen from $136.80 in early May, with five consecutive EPS misses behind it. Management framed Q1 as the trough of the margin story and targeted its first positive adjusted operating income quarter at $30–90 million. Also on Tuesday, CoreWeave announced a multi-year agreement with Solidigm for priority access to enterprise SSD capacity — a direct response to the memory constraint that has dominated this reporting season.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose nearly 10%.
- Fiscal Q4 revenue nearly doubled to $11.12 billion, slightly below the $11.26 billion expected, with adjusted EPS of $1.70 beating the $1.59 consensus.
- The guidance did the work: adjusted EPS of $1.01–1.10 against $0.72 expected, on revenue of $14.5–15.5 billion versus an $11.82 billion consensus — roughly 25% above the Street at the midpoint.
- More than $60 billion in new orders during fiscal 2026, entering the new year with a record backlog.
- Wall Street remains sceptical: 8 of 12 covering analysts are on the sidelines, against 3 bulls and 1 bear, leaving a Hold consensus. The $38.40 average target implies about 21.5% upside from Tuesday’s close.
Lumentum (LITE) also reported after the close, adding to the optical networking read alongside Coherent’s report Wednesday.
📰 Macro | The Calendar Was Empty; Wednesday Is Not
No first-tier US data landed on Tuesday. July CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30am ET (19:30 ICT) and is the week’s decisive release.
| Measure | Consensus | Prior |
| Headline CPI (MoM) | +0.1% to +0.2% | −0.4% |
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Core CPI (MoM) | +0.2% | 0.0% (flat) |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.5% | 2.6% |
Prediction markets are positioned below the sell-side consensus. Kalshi traders see a 47% chance core comes in above 2.4% and only an 11% chance it exceeds 2.5% — implying a softer print than the Dow Jones survey. Polymarket positioning is tightly balanced between 2.4% and 2.5%.
This is the first CPI to carry the full Strait of Hormuz pass-through with Brent above $80. The split between an oil-driven headline and a sticky core is what determines the Fed reaction function, not the headline alone.
📌 Reading the Session
- The geopolitical premium is now rebuilding faster than it deflated. Brent has recovered essentially all of last week’s 7% decline in four sessions. Both sides hardened on Tuesday — Trump demanding compensation while rejecting Iran’s, and Araghchi ruling out talks entirely.
- The AI capex question got its clearest answer of the season, and it was affirmative. CoreWeave’s $104 billion backlog plus $25 billion of Q3 commitments and Supermicro’s $60 billion of fiscal-2026 orders are contracted demand at the capacity layer, not hyperscaler intentions. This is the datapoint the bears have been asking for since Meta’s free cash flow collapse on 29 July.
- The pattern of selling the year’s biggest winners finally broke — for depressed names. CoreWeave had fallen after five straight reports and traded at $88 against a $138 target; Supermicro carried a Hold consensus with 8 of 12 analysts neutral. Both were positioned for disappointment, and both delivered. That is the same setup that produced Palantir’s +29% and Disney’s +3.83%.
Companies
Theme: “The Backlog Answer” — CoreWeave disclosed $104 billion of contracted demand and $25 billion more already committed for Q3. Supermicro guided 25% above consensus on $60 billion of new orders. Both had entered the print positioned for failure — and both broke a losing streak that had persisted through five consecutive reports.
Tuesday resolved the central question of this earnings season. Since Meta’s free cash flow collapsed 91% on 29 July, the bear case on AI has been that hyperscaler capital expenditure is speculative rather than contracted. The hyperscalers answered with backlog — Microsoft at $678 billion in remaining performance obligations, Amazon at $496 billion for AWS. But those are the buyers of compute describing their own intentions. CoreWeave and Supermicro sit on the other side of the transaction, and their numbers are the counterparty confirmation.
⚡ 1. CoreWeave: $104 Billion of Contracted Demand
CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped 10–12% after hours, ending a run in which the stock fell after each of its last five earnings reports and averaged a 17% decline across the last four.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Versus expectation / prior |
| Revenue | $2.58bn, +112% YoY | Narrow beat on ~$2.56bn; +24% sequentially |
| Sales backlog | $104bn | From $99.4bn at Q1 |
| Q3 commitments already booked | $25bn | Forward visibility, not pipeline |
| Loss per share | Narrowed | vs −$1.22 to −$1.45 expected; Q1 was −$1.40 |
| Adjusted operating income target | First positive quarter at $30–90m | Management frames Q1 as the margin trough |
The backlog is the number that matters, and it needs to be read carefully. $104 billion of contracted revenue against a quarterly run rate of $2.58 billion is roughly ten years of sales at current scale. That is not a demand problem. The problem CoreWeave has always had is the funding gap: Q1 showed capex of $7.7 billion against free cash flow of −$4.71 billion. Growth is real, but so is the cash requirement to service it.
Three things made the market forgive that on Tuesday. First, management guided to its first positive adjusted operating income quarter, framing Q1 as the trough — a specific, falsifiable claim rather than a narrative. Second, the Solidigm agreement for priority access to enterprise SSD capacity directly addresses the memory constraint that has driven guidance cuts across the hardware complex since Apple’s on 31 July. Third, and most simply, positioning was capitulated: the stock traded at $87.91 against a $138 analyst target, down from $136.80 in early May, with five consecutive EPS misses behind it.
The unresolved overhang: a securities fraud class action alleging concealed data centre construction delays and insider stock sales ahead of the Q1 2026 report. Goldman Sachs, separately, projects AI demand will exceed compute centre capacity for years.
🖥️ 2. Supermicro: Guidance 25% Above Consensus
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose nearly 10% after hours on largely in-line results and an outlook far above expectations.
- Fiscal Q4 revenue nearly doubled year-over-year to $11.12 billion, slightly short of the $11.26 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.70 beat the $1.59 estimate.
- Current-quarter guidance: adjusted EPS of $1.01–1.10 against $0.72 expected, on revenue of $14.5–15.5 billion versus $11.82 billion — approximately 25% above the Street at the midpoint, and a large sequential step from $11.12 billion.
- More than $60 billion in new orders during fiscal 2026, entering the new fiscal year with record backlog.
The analyst positioning is worth noting because it explains the move. Eight of twelve covering analysts are neutral, against three bulls and one bear — a Hold consensus with a $38.40 average target implying about 21.5% upside. Supermicro has spent two years carrying governance and accounting scepticism. A guidance beat of this magnitude against a sidelined analyst base produces exactly this reaction.
The read-through: Supermicro assembles the servers that CoreWeave and the hyperscalers deploy. A $60 billion order book and a 30%-plus sequential revenue guide corroborate CoreWeave’s backlog from the manufacturing side. Two independent points in the same chain now say the same thing.
🔻 3. The Megacap Complex Diverges
While the infrastructure layer confirmed demand, the megacaps that fund it were sold.
Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 3.61% — its fourth losing session in five since Google announced it is reshuffling its artificial intelligence divisions. Reorganisations of this kind are read as an admission that the current structure is not delivering, and Alphabet has been the least-rewarded hyperscaler throughout this reporting cycle: roughly flat on 30 July when Microsoft rose 15.5%, and down 4.58% on 5 August.
Nvidia gave up a morning gain to close just below flat — a notable non-reaction to a substantial announcement. On Monday the company said it is partnering with six large asset managers to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure. That is a financing structure designed to move data centre capital expenditure off the balance sheets of the operators, and the market’s indifference to it is telling: circular-financing concerns, which Bank of America dismissed as “overblown” on Monday, are clearly still weighing. Nvidia reports Q4 on 26 August.
Apple fell more than 1%, extending Monday’s 1.5% decline on the Jefferies downgrade. Amazon and Microsoft also dragged the Nasdaq.
👟 4. On Holding: The Worst Day on Record
On Holding (ONON) headed for its worst single-day performance on record after Q2 revenue of CHF 850.3 million missed the CHF 878.4 million consensus, despite adjusted EPS of CHF 0.35 narrowly beating CHF 0.34. The company guided full-year revenue growth to the low-20% range.
The context matters more than the numbers. This is the third consumer-facing disappointment in five sessions — The Trade Desk fell 21% on 7 August on an advertising revenue miss, and Under Armour cut guidance the same day citing softer North American and Asia-Pacific demand. Set against July payrolls contracting by 23,000 with softness in retail and leisure and hospitality, a pattern is forming in discretionary consumer names that deserves attention independent of the AI narrative.
📋 5. Other Movers
- Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) fell in premarket after Q2 net loss widened to $238.1 million from roughly $20 million a year earlier, driven largely by unrealised losses on cryptocurrency holdings.
- Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, with the target raised to $95 from $81 (about 15% upside), on continued replacement demand, internal operational changes and emerging mini-product cycles tied to AI integration into consumer electronics.
- eToro reported before the bell and traded up 2.3% after hours; the stock is down 11.4% over three months and has more than halved since its May 2025 IPO.
- Fermi (FRMI) surged roughly 20% on a $6.5 billion AI deal — notable because the company has no operating data centres, a reminder of how loosely capital is being attached to AI announcements.
- Oracle fell again on concerns its AI spending bill is catching up with it — the same free-cash-flow question that hit Meta.
📌 Analyst Take
Tuesday produced the cleanest bifurcation of the season: the AI supply chain is contracted, and the AI buyers are being repriced.
The evidence for the first proposition is now substantial and independent. CoreWeave: $104 billion backlog, $25 billion of Q3 commitments already booked. Supermicro: $60 billion of fiscal-2026 orders, guidance 25% above consensus. Combined with Microsoft’s $678 billion RPO and Amazon’s $496 billion AWS backlog, four separate points in the chain — hyperscaler, neocloud, server assembler and cloud provider — now disclose multi-year contracted demand. The “speculative capex” thesis is much harder to sustain after Tuesday than before it.
The evidence for the second is equally clear. Alphabet is down four of five sessions on an AI reorganisation. Nvidia could not hold a gain on a $500 billion financing partnership. Apple has fallen two straight sessions on a cancelled premium product. Oracle keeps falling on its spending bill. The market is distinguishing between who gets paid for AI and who pays for it — and it has been doing so consistently since Meta reported on 29 July.
The positioning lesson repeats. CoreWeave entered at $88 against a $138 target with five consecutive post-earnings declines. Supermicro entered with 8 of 12 analysts neutral. Both were priced for failure and both rallied double digits — the same mechanism that produced Palantir +29%, Disney +3.83%, Airbnb +7–9% and Cloudflare +16–17%, while AMD, SanDisk, Western Digital and Datadog were sold on good news.
General
Tuesday, August 11th, 2026: Risk-On With an Inflationary Undertow
Investrade’s characterisation of Tuesday is the most precise available: “risk-on with an inflationary undertow.” The major indices sit within 2% of record highs because Friday’s payroll contraction removed the September rate hike from the base case. Simultaneously, the 30-year Treasury is back near 20-year highs and Brent has recovered essentially all of last week’s 7% decline because the Gulf conflict has re-escalated. Two forces, pointing in opposite directions, holding the index roughly still.
Wednesday’s CPI adjudicates. And in a genuinely unusual configuration, the after-hours session delivered the strongest fundamental news of the week from an entirely different direction — contracted AI demand at a scale that neither the labour market nor the Strait of Hormuz affects.
- The Diplomacy Has Moved Backwards, Not Sideways
It is worth recording how far the position has deteriorated in eight sessions.
| Date | Signal | Brent |
| 4 Aug | Bessent: deal possible “today or tomorrow” | Fell below $79 |
| 7 Aug | Week ends down more than 7% | $83.55 settle |
| 9 Aug | Araghchi: “very close” with Oman, but reopening “subject to other conditions” | — |
| 10 Aug | No direct talks; blockade must lift; six conditions; compensation demanded | Above $86 |
| 11 Aug | Trump rebuffs reparations, will “wait for economic pressure”; Araghchi: “no possibility of restarting negotiations” | $88.91 |
The trajectory is unambiguous. Each side has now publicly demanded compensation from the other. Trump has explicitly adopted a waiting strategy — “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money” — which is a statement that the US no longer expects a near-term settlement. Araghchi’s “no possibility of restarting negotiations” is the strongest formulation Tehran has used in this cycle.
And the kinetic dimension is escalating in parallel: a US helicopter fired on a Panama-flagged vessel enforcing the blockade; Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery; an ADNOC tanker was attacked in Hormuz over the weekend. The war entered its sixth month this week.
For positioning, the implication is that the oil risk premium should be treated as structural rather than event-driven for now. The market has priced a resolution five times since February. On the sixth, the appropriate prior is that headlines move price but do not change the underlying supply picture.
- The Small-Cap Signal
The Russell 2000 rose 0.32% to 3,027.12 while every large-cap index fell. It is now up 22% in 2026 against 12.9% for the S&P 500, 11.9% for the Dow and 13.8% for the Nasdaq.
This is a rate signal, not a growth signal. Small caps carry more floating-rate debt and shorter refinancing horizons than megacaps, so they benefit disproportionately when the expected policy path falls. Friday’s payroll contraction — −23,000 with May and June revised down 103,000 and the twelve-month average at roughly 34,000 a month — did exactly that, and the Russell has held the gain even as large caps sold off for two sessions.
The read for clients: the market has not abandoned the “Fed on hold” thesis. It is selling megacap technology for company-specific reasons — Alphabet’s AI reorganisation, Apple’s cancelled premium product, Nvidia’s financing structure, Oracle’s capex — while continuing to buy the part of the market that benefits most directly from a lower rate path. These are separable trades and should be treated as such.
- The Capex Debate Has Been Settled at the Supply Layer
The single most important development of the day happened after the close, and it deserves to be stated plainly.
| Layer | Contracted demand disclosed | Reported |
| Hyperscaler (buyer) | Microsoft: $678bn RPO, +84% | 30 July |
| Hyperscaler (buyer) | Amazon AWS: $496bn backlog | 31 July |
| Neocloud (capacity) | CoreWeave: $104bn backlog + $25bn Q3 commitments | 11 August |
| Assembler (hardware) | Supermicro: $60bn fiscal-2026 orders, record backlog | 11 August |
Why the last two matter more than the first two. A hyperscaler’s backlog is its own contracted revenue — evidence that its customers are committing, but not independent evidence about the capital equipment chain. CoreWeave and Supermicro are the counterparties: the firms that receive the capex. Their order books are the mirror image of the hyperscalers’ spending plans, and they corroborate them.
The bear case does not disappear — it relocates. CoreWeave showed capex of $7.7 billion against free cash flow of −$4.71 billion in Q1. The demand is contracted; the funding of it is not resolved. That is precisely why Nvidia’s $500 billion partnership with six asset managers matters, and why the market’s failure to reward it is significant: the financing structures being built to carry this buildout are themselves becoming the object of scepticism.
- Wednesday’s CPI: The Split Is the Signal
Consensus: headline +0.1% to +0.2% month-on-month (3.4% year-over-year, from 3.5%); core +0.2% month-on-month (2.5% year-over-year, from 2.6%).
This is the first CPI carrying the full Hormuz pass-through with Brent above $80. The analytically useful thing is not the headline but the gap between an oil-driven headline and the core trend.
The sell-side detail:
- Bank of America expects headline +0.1% as gas prices fell again, core +0.20% and 2.5% annually — the lowest since January. Core goods low, core services returning to trend after June’s decline. BofA also expects core PCE at +0.24% month-on-month (3.3% year-over-year), which it reads as supporting a September hike.
- Wells Fargo looks for core at +0.24%, rebounding from June’s weak figure, with Apple’s pricing increases lifting consumer electronics and tariff pressures subsiding elsewhere. Core services inflation up from June.
- Goldman Sachs argues softer hiring has reduced the odds of a hike, but the bar should be raised for this print to reinstate September as the clear modal outcome — with more room for a softer core to drive a sweeping decline in hike probability.
Prediction markets sit below the sell side. Kalshi shows a 47% probability core exceeds 2.4% and only 11% that it exceeds 2.5%. That asymmetry matters: if the market is positioned for a soft print and gets one, the upside is limited; if it gets a 0.3% core, the repricing is violent. TradingKey notes that a core reading at or above 0.3% month-on-month would quickly reheat hike expectations and pressure high-valuation growth stocks.
Note the internal contradiction in the BofA view — a soft core CPI alongside core PCE at 3.3% supporting a September hike. That divergence between the two inflation measures has been a feature all year, and it is why the FOMC voted 9–3 on 29 July.
- The Consumer Thread Nobody Is Pulling
Five sessions have produced three separate consumer disappointments, and the market has treated each as idiosyncratic.
- 7 August: The Trade Desk −21% on a 4.9% revenue miss — programmatic advertising, a coincident read on corporate confidence.
- 7 August: Under Armour −3%+, cutting full-year revenue guidance to a mid-single-digit decline on softer North American and Asia-Pacific demand.
- 11 August: On Holding — worst day on record on a revenue miss and low-20% full-year growth guidance.
Set against the labour data, this is a pattern rather than a coincidence. July payrolls contracted by 23,000 with softness specifically in retail and leisure and hospitality; May and June were revised down by 103,000; average hourly earnings growth fell to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021; and ISM Services employment printed 47.4 in July, the lowest since March.
The tension this creates is the central risk to the current equity setup. The market is rallying on the premise that a weakening labour market keeps the Fed on hold. That premise requires the weakness to remain confined to the policy channel and not reach corporate revenues. Three consumer-facing misses in five sessions is the first evidence that it may not. Friday’s July retail sales print is now more important than it looked a week ago.
📊 Global Macro Sentiment Summary — Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
| Narrative Channel | Core Fundamental Trigger | Net Portfolio Posture |
| Index Structure | S&P −0.32% to 7,728.20 (second decline); Dow −0.34%; Nasdaq −0.60% | 🟨 Drifting from records |
| Small caps | Russell 2000 +0.32% to 3,027.12 — only major index higher; +22% YTD | 🟩 Rate trade intact |
| Geopolitics | Trump rebuffs reparations, will wait; Araghchi: “no possibility of restarting negotiations”; US helicopter fires on blockade runner | 🟥 Moving backwards |
| Energy | Brent +1.4% to $88.91 (range $87–90); WTI +1.3% to $83.20; last week’s 7% decline nearly erased | 🟥 Premium restored |
| Rates | Yields eased on the day; 10Y above 4.7% overnight; 30Y near 20-year highs | ⚠️ Inflationary undertow |
| AI infrastructure | CoreWeave $104bn backlog +$25bn Q3 commitments (+10–12% AH); Supermicro guides 25% above consensus on $60bn orders (+10% AH) | 🟩 Capex confirmed |
| Megacap | Alphabet −3.61% (4 of 5 down, AI reorg); Nvidia flat despite $500bn financing partnership; Apple −1%+ | 🟥 Buyers repriced |
| Consumer | On Holding worst day on record; third consumer miss in five sessions | ⚠️ Emerging pattern |
| Wednesday | July CPI: headline +0.1–0.2% MoM (3.4% YoY), core +0.2% (2.5% YoY); Kalshi implies softer | 🔴 Decisive |
Upcoming News
Wednesday, August 12th, 2026 — Theme: “The First CPI With Full Hormuz Pass-Through” — July inflation lands at 19:30 ICT with consensus at +0.2% core and 2.5% annually, prediction markets positioned softer, and Brent back near $89. Coherent — up 105% this year and carrying the widest implied move on the calendar — reports the same day.
Wednesday is the week’s decisive session. The market has spent five sessions pricing a Fed on hold after payrolls contracted by 23,000; Wednesday tests whether inflation permits it. The complication is that this is the first CPI to carry the full Strait of Hormuz pass-through with Brent above $80, which makes the split between an energy-driven headline and the underlying core trend more informative than either number alone.
🔴 Calendar — Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
Times in ICT (Hanoi). ET is ICT minus 11 hours.
| Time (ICT) | Currency | Event / Indicator | Consensus | Impact |
| 18:00 | USD | MBA Mortgage Applications (wk ended Jul 25) | prev 15,000 | 🟢 Low |
| 19:30 | USD | July CPI (MoM) | +0.1% to +0.2% (prev −0.4%) | 🔴 High |
| 19:30 | USD | July CPI (YoY) | 3.4% (prev 3.5%) | 🔴 High |
| 19:30 | USD | July Core CPI (MoM) | +0.2% (prev 0.0%) | 🔴 High |
| 19:30 | USD | July Core CPI (YoY) | 2.5% (prev 2.6%) | 🔴 High |
| 19:30 | USD | Real Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) | prev +0.1% | 🟠 Med |
| 19:30 | USD | Real Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) | prev +0.3% | 🟠 Med |
| Before open | — | Coherent (COHR) — widest implied move of the week | — | 🔴 High |
| After close | — | Cisco (CSCO), Cerebras (CBRS) | — | 🔴 High |
- What Actually Matters in the CPI Print
The headline will be dominated by energy and is the least informative line. Gasoline prices fell again during July even as crude round-tripped, which is why BofA looks for headline at just +0.1%. The core reading is what the Fed reacts to.
The scenario map:
| Core CPI (MoM) | Probability read | Likely market reaction |
| ≤ +0.1% | Below both consensus and prediction markets | September hike odds fall well below 40%; front end rallies hard; growth and small caps outperform |
| +0.2% | Base case — Dow Jones consensus | Broadly neutral; confirms the current ~44% pricing; index likely retests the record |
| +0.24% | BofA and Wells Fargo house views | Rounds to 0.2% but reads hot in the detail; watch core services |
| ≥ +0.3% | The painful surprise | Hike expectations reheat quickly; yields rise; high-multiple growth de-rates sharply |
The specific components to watch:
- Core services. Both BofA and Wells Fargo expect a rebound from June’s soft reading. This is the channel the Fed cares about and the one energy relief cannot reach. ISM Services prices printed 70.3 in July with a twelve-month average at a three-year high — if that shows up in CPI core services, the disinflation narrative weakens materially.
- Consumer electronics. Wells Fargo specifically flags Apple’s pricing increases as a contributor. That is the memory cost shock passing through to consumers — a genuinely new inflation channel this cycle.
- The largest single core component and the primary source of forecast dispersion.
The positioning asymmetry is the key risk. Kalshi traders see a 47% chance core exceeds 2.4% and only an 11% chance it exceeds 2.5% — softer than the sell side. When prediction markets are positioned below consensus, a soft print delivers limited upside while a hot print forces a violent repricing.
Also note the CPI–PCE divergence. BofA expects core PCE at +0.24% month-on-month and 3.3% year-over-year, which it reads as supporting a September hike, even while forecasting core CPI at its lowest since January. That gap between the two measures has run all year and is a large part of why the FOMC split 9–3 on 29 July.
- Coherent: The Most Exposed Name on the Calendar
Coherent (COHR) reports Wednesday and carries the widest implied post-earnings move of any company on the week’s calendar, per Benzinga Pro.
The setup is extreme. The stock is up roughly 105% in 2026 and rose about 47% last week alone — including 16.4% on Friday in a sixth consecutive advance — entirely on a Reuters report that the administration is drafting a ban on imports of Chinese data-centre components. JPMorgan raised its target to $435 from $380. Bank of America named Coherent, Lumentum and Marvell as the principal domestic beneficiaries.
The vulnerability is that none of that is in the numbers. A 47% weekly move on a draft policy with no legislative status is pure multiple expansion. By this season’s pattern, the largest year-to-date gainers have been sold on good news — AMD (+140%) fell 8% on 107% data-centre growth; SanDisk (+400%) fell 10% on a 12% EPS beat; Western Digital (+220%) fell 10% on a beat-and-raise; Datadog fell 17% on a beat-and-raise after nearly doubling.
Lumentum reported Tuesday after the close, which provides a same-week read on the optical networking thesis before Coherent prints.
Cisco reports after the close — a broad enterprise networking read and a Dow component. Cerebras also reports after the bell; it beat expectations in June in its first quarterly report as a public company, and is the purest listed alternative-architecture AI chip play.
- Carry-Over From Tuesday Night
- CoreWeave rose 10–12% after hours on $2.58 billion revenue (+112%), a $104 billion backlog and $25 billion of Q3 commitments already booked, with management targeting its first positive adjusted operating income quarter at $30–90 million. It also announced a multi-year Solidigm agreement for priority enterprise SSD capacity.
- Supermicro rose nearly 10% on guidance of $14.5–15.5 billion revenue against $11.82 billion expected and $1.01–1.10 adjusted EPS against $0.72, with $60 billion of new fiscal-2026 orders.
- How these trade in the cash session is the real test. After-hours moves of this size frequently fade. Both stocks had fallen after multiple consecutive reports — CoreWeave after five straight — so a sustained gain would mark a genuine break in the pattern rather than a positioning bounce.
- Geopolitics remains live: Trump has rebuffed Iran’s reparations demand and adopted an explicit waiting strategy; Araghchi says there is no possibility of restarting talks; a US helicopter fired on a blockade-running vessel. Brent at $88.91 has nearly erased last week’s 7% decline.
- The Rest of the Week and Beyond
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
| Thu 13 | July PPI; jobless claims; Applied Materials (+110% YTD, 10.4% implied move); SanDisk Investor Day | PPI completes the inflation picture; SanDisk addresses FY27 supply, contract conversion and price floors |
| Fri 14 | July retail sales (June +0.2%); UMich preliminary sentiment | More important than usual after three consumer misses in five sessions |
| 19 Aug | July FOMC minutes | Detail on the 9–3 vote and the Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissents |
| 26 Aug | Nvidia Q4 | BofA expects a beat and raise; watch Vera Rubin and gross margin vs memory costs |
| 27–29 Aug | Jackson Hole — Warsh’s first address as Chair | Framework, after the Fed dropped explicit forward guidance |
| 4 Sept | August payrolls | Confirmation test for July’s −23,000 |
| 15–16 Sept | FOMC decision and dot plot | ~44% priced for a hike |
Friday’s retail sales deserve elevation in the client conversation. June spending rose just 0.2%, and much of the spring’s increase came from higher fuel prices that have since reversed. With The Trade Desk down 21%, Under Armour cutting guidance and On Holding posting its worst day on record, all within five sessions, the consumer is the least-examined risk in the current setup.
Snapshot
Tuesday, August 11th, 2026 — Theme: “Two Markets in One Day” — The cash session drifted lower for a second straight day on a hardening US–Iran standoff, with Brent back near $89 and Alphabet down 3.61%. After the close, CoreWeave disclosed a $104 billion backlog and Supermicro guided 25% above consensus — both jumped roughly 10%.
Tuesday split cleanly in two. The daytime market was governed by geopolitics and drifted: Trump rebuffed Iran’s reparations demand and said he would wait for economic pressure to build; Araghchi declared there is “no possibility of restarting negotiations”; a US helicopter fired on a vessel running the blockade. The after-hours market was governed by fundamentals and delivered the strongest evidence of the season that AI capital expenditure is contracted rather than speculative. The Russell 2000 was the only major index to rise, confirming that the post-payrolls rate trade remains intact beneath the megacap selling.
🏛️ The Bottom Line
The S&P 500 fell 24.91 points (−0.32%) to 7,728.20, its second modest decline since Friday’s record. The Dow lost 184.13 points (−0.34%) to 53,791.85 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 159.91 points (−0.60%) to 26,445.45, now about 2% from its record. The Russell 2000 rose 9.72 points (+0.32%) to 3,027.12 — the only major index higher, and up 22% in 2026 against 12.9% for the S&P.
Alphabet fell 3.61%, its fourth losing session in five since Google announced a reshuffle of its AI divisions. Nvidia gave up a morning gain to close just below flat, despite announcing a partnership with six large asset managers to mobilise more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure. Apple fell more than 1%. On Holding headed for its worst day on record after Q2 revenue of CHF 850.3 million missed CHF 878.4 million and it guided full-year growth to the low-20% range. Trump Media fell on a Q2 net loss that widened to $238.1 million from about $20 million. Best Buy was upgraded to Buy at Truist with a $95 target.
Brent crude rose about 1.4% to $88.91 after ranging between $87 and $90; WTI closed up 1.3% at $83.20. The move has nearly erased last week’s 7% decline. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reiterated the Strait will not reopen until its conditions are met; Trump demanded Iranian compensation for victims’ families and regional countries while rebuffing Tehran’s own reparations demand; and per the Wall Street Journal a US helicopter fired at the rudder of a Panama-flagged ship ignoring blockade warnings. Over the weekend, Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery and an ADNOC tanker was attacked in Hormuz.
Treasury yields eased on the day, but the 10-year traded back above 4.7% overnight and the 30-year sits near 20-year highs. Investrade described the tone as “risk-on with an inflationary undertow.”
After the close, the AI infrastructure layer delivered. CoreWeave rose 10–12% on revenue of $2.58 billion (+112% year-over-year, +24% sequentially), a $104 billion sales backlog (from $99.4 billion), $25 billion of Q3 commitments already booked, and a narrowed loss — with management targeting its first positive adjusted operating income quarter at $30–90 million and announcing a multi-year Solidigm agreement for priority enterprise SSD capacity. Supermicro rose nearly 10% on fiscal Q4 revenue of $11.12 billion (adjusted EPS $1.70 vs $1.59) and guidance of $14.5–15.5 billion revenue against $11.82 billion expected on $60 billion of new fiscal-2026 orders.
📉 Reference Levels for the Wednesday Open (August 12th)
Derived from recent session closes and range extremes — not vendor-published levels. Verify against your own charts.
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Operational Bias |
| S&P 500 | 7,700 → 7,600 | 7,753 → 7,757.64 (record) | 🟨 CPI decides |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,348 → 26,000 | 26,605 → 26,690 | 🟥 ~2% from its record |
| Dow Jones | 53,791 → 53,178 | 54,349 → 54,744 (records) | 🟨 Mid-range |
| Russell 2000 | 2,946 | 3,027 → record zone | 🟩 +22% YTD, leading |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.60% → 4.55% | 4.70% → 4.73% | ⚠️ CPI is the trigger |
| US 30Y Yield | 5.10% | Near 20-year highs | 🟥 Inflationary undertow |
| Brent Crude | $87 → $83.55 | $90 → $90.12 | 🟩 Premium restored |
| WTI Crude | $80 → $78 | $83.20 → $84.67 | 🟩 Four sessions higher |
| Gold (spot) | $4,299 → $4,223 | $4,349 → $4,430 | 🟨 Consolidating |
📊 Market Sentiment & Bias
Equities: 🟨 Drifting, not breaking. Two sessions of sub-0.4% declines from a record is consolidation ahead of CPI, not distribution. The Nasdaq remains well above its July lows, when it fell almost 10% from its prior record.
Rate trade: 🟩 Intact. The Russell 2000 rose while every large-cap index fell and is up 22% year-to-date. The megacap selling is idiosyncratic — Alphabet’s AI reorganisation, Apple’s cancelled product, Nvidia’s financing structure — not a repudiation of the Fed-on-hold thesis.
Geopolitics: 🟥 Deteriorating, not stalled. Both sides now demand compensation from the other; Trump has adopted an explicit waiting strategy; Tehran rules out restarting talks. Brent has recovered nearly all of last week’s decline in four sessions.
AI capex: 🟩 The question is answered at the supply layer. CoreWeave’s $104 billion backlog and Supermicro’s $60 billion order book are counterparty confirmation of Microsoft’s $678 billion RPO and Amazon’s $496 billion AWS backlog. Four independent points in the chain now disclose multi-year contracted demand.
AI funding: ⚠️ Unresolved and now the live question. CoreWeave ran $7.7 billion of capex against −$4.71 billion free cash flow in Q1. Nvidia could not hold a gain on a $500 billion asset-manager partnership. The market is sceptical of the financing structures, not the demand.
Consumer: ⚠️ An emerging pattern. Three misses in five sessions — Trade Desk −21%, Under Armour guidance cut, On Holding’s worst day ever — against payrolls showing retail and leisure softness.
💡 Top Trade Takeaway: “Buy the Receivers, Question the Payers”
Focus: Favour the AI supply and capacity layer where contracted backlog is now disclosed. Retain small-cap and duration exposure tied to the labour repricing. Avoid the year’s largest gainers reporting this week — particularly Coherent and Applied Materials. Treat energy as a structural rather than event-driven premium. Size modestly into Wednesday’s CPI.
Logic. Tuesday night settled the season’s central argument at the layer that matters most. The bear case since Meta’s 91% free cash flow collapse on 29 July has been that AI capex is speculative. CoreWeave — the firm that receives that capex — disclosed a $104 billion backlog with $25 billion more already committed for Q3, and Supermicro, which builds the servers, guided 25% above consensus on $60 billion of orders. Neither is a buyer describing its own intentions; both are counterparties confirming the chain.
But the bear case relocates rather than vanishes. CoreWeave’s Q1 showed $7.7 billion of capex against −$4.71 billion of free cash flow. Demand is contracted; paying for it is not resolved. That is precisely why Nvidia’s $500 billion financing partnership with six asset managers produced no share price reaction — the market has moved on from questioning demand to questioning the structures being built to fund it. Oracle is falling on the same question.
The positioning rule of this season held again, in both directions. CoreWeave entered at $87.91 against a $138 target with five consecutive post-earnings declines behind it; Supermicro entered with 8 of 12 analysts neutral. Both were priced for failure and both rallied roughly 10%. Meanwhile Coherent — up 105% year-to-date and 47% in a single week on a draft policy with no legislative status — reports Wednesday with the widest implied move on the calendar, and Applied Materials, up 110%, follows Thursday with a 10.4% implied move.
The risk that is least discussed is the consumer. Three misses in five sessions, against a payroll report showing contraction concentrated in retail and leisure, and average hourly earnings at a five-year low of 3.2%. The entire equity setup assumes labour weakness stays confined to the policy channel and does not reach corporate revenues. Friday’s retail sales test that directly.
Calendar discipline: July CPI Wednesday 19:30 ICT — core +0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY expected, with prediction markets positioned softer, so a 0.3% core is the painful surprise; Coherent and Cisco Wednesday, Cerebras after the close; PPI, Applied Materials and SanDisk Investor Day Thursday; retail sales Friday; FOMC minutes 19 August; Nvidia Q4 on 26 August; Jackson Hole 27–29 August; FOMC 15–16 September.
The report belongs to The Concept Trading and Van Hung Nguyen
