When will the US Government Open back?
Data (31.10 – 01.11)
– U.S.–China trade deal finalized: Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded a long-awaited framework agreement, cutting U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 57 % to 47 % and halting new export-control measures. China pledged to resume soybean and LNG purchases, maintain rare-earth exports for at least 12 months, and tighten fentanyl-trafficking enforcement. The accord marked the first formal U.S.–China trade settlement since 2020, easing global supply-chain tensions.
– Global fund flows positive: Equity funds attracted US$ 10.6 billion in net inflows during the week ending 29 Oct, led by U.S. and tech-focused funds as investors rotated back into risk assets following the Fed’s rate cut and trade truce.
– Equity markets extended gains: Between 31 Oct and 1 Nov, the S&P 500 rose a cumulative +1.1 %, Nasdaq +1.8 %, and Dow Jones +0.7 %, reaching fresh record highs. European equities (STOXX 600) slipped –0.5 % on 31 Oct before rebounding modestly on improved sentiment.
– Bond yields steady at post-Fed lows: U.S. 10-year yields hovered near 4.02 %, Germany’s Bund around 2.58 %, and Japan’s JGB ≈ 0.91 %, marking the largest monthly decline in global yields since 2023.
– Berkshire Hathaway reported record cash holdings of US$ 381.7 billion, up from US$ 364 billion QoQ, with operating profit +18 % y/y — underscoring Warren Buffett’s defensive stance amid high valuations and geopolitical uncertainty.
– China’s October PMI contracted for a seventh consecutive month, down to 49.0 (Sept: 49.8), reflecting weak export demand and fragile domestic confidence.
– Japanese yen strengthened slightly to ¥154.0 / USD on 31 Oct after Tokyo’s core CPI rose +2.8 % y/y and Finance Minister Suzuki warned against “excessive FX volatility,” though momentum faded after the trade accord.
– Gold and crypto diverged: Gold eased to US$ 3 945 / oz (–0.5 %) as risk appetite improved; Bitcoin rebounded +1.8 % to ≈ US$ 107 200 after ending October –5 %, its first monthly loss since 2018.
– Energy markets stabilised: Brent crude rose +0.7 % to US$ 66.98 / bbl and WTI +0.6 % to US$ 62.93 / bbl on optimism that the U.S.–China deal will lift global demand.
– Corporate & structural highlights:
- Meta Platforms announced up to US$ 30 billion in new bond issuance to fund AI data-center expansion.
- Western Digital (+8 %) and Seagate (+6 %) extended year-to-date gains > 200 %, leading the S&P Tech Hardware Index to a record.
- Bank of America appointed Denis Manelski and Soofian Zuberi as co-heads of Global Markets, signalling a pivot toward trading revenues amid higher volatility.
Companies.
+) Global equities extended their strong October gains into early November, supported by robust corporate earnings and optimism over U.S.–China trade progress. The S&P 500 rose +0.3% on Oct 31 and opened November modestly higher, while the Nasdaq Composite added +0.5% on improved tech sentiment.
+) Amazon.com Inc. surged +11% to a record high after reporting strong Q3 results and upgraded forward guidance, leading a rebound in megacap tech.
+) The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +0.4%, marking its sixth straight monthly gain; the S&P 500 closed October up +2.6% — its longest monthly winning streak since 2021.
+) Global fund flows showed strong momentum: equity funds attracted US$10.58 billion in the week ending Oct 29, with Asia-focused funds contributing nearly 70% of total inflows.
+) Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that while rate cuts have paused for now, future decisions remain data-dependent; markets are pricing one additional cut in mid-2026.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher to 97.9, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.01%, reflecting modest repricing of the rate outlook.
+) In Europe, the FTSE 100 hit another record high (≈ 9,680 points), led by energy and financial sectors on optimism about a softer policy stance and steady earnings.
+) Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted its best monthly gain since 1994 (+16%), while South Korea’s KOSPI +20% for October on chip-sector strength; Chinese and Hong Kong markets lagged slightly due to renewed regulatory concerns.
+) Commodities traded mixed: gold softened toward US$ 3,960/oz as risk appetite improved, while Brent crude steadied near US$ 65.2/bbl after recent volatility.
+) Heading into the first week of November, markets are focused on the continuation of Q3 earnings — particularly from energy, semiconductor, and consumer-sector firms — alongside upcoming global PMIs and U.S. labor data.
** Company Earnings Reports Last week
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) | Beat expectations on cloud and retail strength; AWS revenue accelerated, driving double-digit earnings growth. | Revenue: US$ 177.8 bn (+13% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.63 (vs 1.58 est). AWS growth: +17%. Operating Margin: 8.1%. |
| Apple Inc. (AAPL) | Posted record Q4 FY results; strong iPhone 17 sales and services; cautious Q1 guidance due to FX volatility. | Revenue: US$ 102.5 bn (+8% YoY). EPS: US$ 1.85 (vs 1.77 est). Services: US$ 23.4 bn (+12%). |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) | Reported lower earnings on weaker downstream margins but affirmed disciplined CapEx strategy. | EPS: US$ 2.25 (vs 2.31 est). Revenue: US$ 91 bn (–6% YoY). CapEx: US$ 6.8 bn (+9%). |
| Chevron Corp. (CVX) | Earnings fell short due to refining weakness, though upstream volumes and cost controls were stable. | EPS: US$ 2.84 (vs 2.88 est). Revenue: US$ 50.2 bn (–5% YoY). |
| Pfizer Inc. (PFE) | Returned to profitability as vaccine demand stabilized; lifted FY 2025 outlook. | EPS: US$ 0.78 (vs 0.71 est). Revenue: US$ 15.7 bn (+4%). FY EPS guide: US$ 2.10–2.20. |
| Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) | Outperformed expectations on infrastructure demand and strong order backlog; reaffirmed 2025 outlook. | EPS: US$ 6.05 (vs 5.80 est). Revenue: US$ 17.1 bn (+4%). |
| Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) | Beat estimates; robust U.S. traffic offset slower growth in China; boosted FY guidance. | EPS: US$ 1.12 (vs 1.06 est). Revenue: US$ 9.4 bn (+6%). |
| Intel Corp. (INTC) | Surprised on upside as PC stabilization and data-center recovery improved margins. | EPS: US$ 0.54 (vs 0.42 est). Revenue: US$ 14.9 bn (+7%). |
| Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) | Posted record revenue; one-time tax charge hurt EPS; AI investments to expand into 2026. | Revenue: US$ 51.2 bn (+26%). EPS: US$ 6.03 (vs 6.72 est). |
| Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) | Crossed the US$ 100 bn quarterly revenue mark; cloud and YouTube performed strongly. | Revenue: US$ 102.3 bn (+16%). EPS: US$ 2.87 (+35%). |
General
Global equities steady as investors digest Fed outlook and trade optimism
Global stocks ended the week mixed but broadly resilient as markets balanced optimism over an emerging U.S.–China trade framework with caution about the Fed’s limited room for further rate cuts. The S&P 500 closed just below record highs, while Asian markets posted moderate gains on strong Japanese inflows and continued weakness in the yen.
Equity funds record sixth consecutive week of inflows
Global equity funds attracted USD 10.6 billion in net inflows for the week ending October 29, marking their sixth straight week of positive flows. The bulk of new capital went to Asian equities, particularly Japan and India, supported by improving growth sentiment and expectations that monetary policy globally will stay accommodative through early 2026.
Dollar gains while yen slides to multi-month low amid policy divergence
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed toward 99.2, capping its strongest monthly advance since early 2024. The Japanese yen weakened beyond JPY 154 per USD, prompting verbal warnings from Tokyo officials but no direct intervention. The euro hovered near 1.17, constrained by soft Eurozone inflation and ECB rate-pause expectations.
Gold softens as safe-haven flows unwind; oil stable on supply discipline
Gold drifted lower toward USD 3,960/oz, as easing geopolitical concerns and firmer yields reduced safe-haven demand. Oil prices held steady around USD 63.4 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ output discipline and lingering supply constraints tied to sanctions on Russian producers. Analysts expect range-bound trading until the next OPEC meeting in December.
Fed messaging anchors yields as government shutdown persists
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown extended into a fourth week, keeping key data releases suspended and clouding near-term visibility. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish-neutral stance after its October meeting anchored Treasury yields near 4.05 %, as traders priced in only one more 25 bps cut by year-end.
AI spending and earnings divergence highlight concentration risks
While megacap technology stocks extended their dominance—with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple continuing to drive index strength—analysts flagged growing valuation risk and earnings concentration. Several mid-cap firms warned of margin compression from rising AI-related capex, underlining structural cost pressures within the sector.
Trade truce progress remains uneven as enforcement details lacking
Markets continued to monitor developments following the Trump–Xi meeting, where both sides reportedly agreed to a phased tariff rollback and increased U.S. agricultural exports. However, uncertainty persists over implementation timelines, intellectual-property safeguards, and rare-earth supply-chain rules, tempering investor enthusiasm.
Upcoming News
The first full week of November opens against a backdrop of renewed monetary divergence and improving trade sentiment. With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut now digested, global markets turn their attention to a series of high-impact economic indicators and central-bank decisions that could define short-term direction across currencies, bonds, and commodities. In the United States, investors will scrutinize the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs alongside ADP employment data, as the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay official releases such as Non-Farm Payrolls. These private-sector indicators will serve as critical proxies for the health of U.S. demand and labour conditions, influencing expectations for further Fed easing in early 2026.
In Europe, the Bank of England and European Central Bank remain under pressure to balance slowing inflation with soft growth. The BoE policy meeting on Thursday is expected to result in a hold, though the tone of Governor Andrew Bailey’s statement could set the stage for rate reductions in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP and retail-sales data will help clarify whether the region is stabilizing after months of manufacturing weakness. Across the Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia is also due to meet, with markets watching for any hint of alignment with the Fed’s recent dovish turn. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI will provide early insight into industrial activity following tentative trade-talk progress with the U.S.
| Date | Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| Mon, Nov 3 | 🇨🇳 China | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 🔴 High — critical read on Chinese export and industrial trends |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | CPI (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — inflation trend may affect SNB’s near-term stance | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 🔴 High — key proxy for U.S. growth amid data blackout | |
| Tue, Nov 4 | 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Producer Price Index (Sep) | 🟠 Medium — further evidence of disinflationary momentum |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | RBA Interest-Rate Decision | 🔴 High — watch for dovish shift following global easing cycle | |
| Wed, Nov 5 | 🇺🇸 United States | ADP Employment Change (Oct) | 🔴 High — substitute labour-market signal in lieu of NFP |
| 🇺🇸 United States | ISM Services PMI (Oct) | 🔴 High — measures service-sector inflation and demand strength | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Composite PMI Final (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — confirms regional business-cycle momentum | |
| Thu, Nov 6 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Bank of England Rate Decision | 🔴 High — tone to shape GBP and gilt yields |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Retail Sales (Sep) | 🟠 Medium — consumer-spending indicator for Q4 trajectory | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Weekly Jobless Claims | 🟡 Low–Medium — still relevant for labour-trend confirmation | |
| Fri, Nov 7 | 🇨🇦 Canada | Labour-Market Report (Oct) | 🔴 High — wage and jobs data may steer BoC guidance |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim Nov) | 🔴 High — first confidence gauge post-Fed cut | |
| 🌍 Global | G7 Finance Ministers / Central-Bank remarks | 🔴 High — policy-coordination watch and guidance risk |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. dollar remained resilient despite easing inflation expectations and mounting expectations of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held high in the 98s-99 area as global risk sentiment improved but central-bank ambiguity kept safe-haven demand intact.
- USD/JPY held near 8-151.2, with the yen supported by Japanese equity inflows yet capped by still-favourable yield differentials for the U.S. dollar.
- EUR/USD hovered in a narrow 164–1.170 range as the euro reacted to weak Chinese PMI data and firmer U.S. equities.
- GBP/USD was stable at approximately 343–1.348, with sterling supported by resilient U.K. data but limited by broader global risk-on flows.
Analysis:
FX markets remain anchored in a risk-on flavour though the dollar hasn’t dropped markedly—suggesting investor caution. The lack of clear macro catalysts, combined with a data freeze in the U.S., means currencies are driven more by cross-asset flow and positioning than fresh fundamentals. The yen stands out as a somewhat divergent story given Japan’s local equity surge.
Metals
Precious metals edged lower while industrial metals continued to strengthen amid demand optimism and supply constraints.
- Gold slipped ~1% to around US$ 4,002/oz, pressured by uncertainty over additional Fed rate cuts and the firmer dollar.
- Copper hit a fresh nominal high of US$ 11,200/ton, underpinned by strong fund positioning and tightening fundamentals.
- Additional supportive supply-side reports emerged: China’s industry body proposed capacity caps for copper, lead and zinc—a sign of structural supply discipline.
Analysis:
Gold’s slight dip signals that safe-haven hedging is being scaled back amidst improved global sentiment. However, the structural case remains intact. The standout is copper, whose record high reflects mounting belief in a renewed industrial demand cycle and constrained supply chain. The divergence between precious and base metals is noteworthy and likely to persist.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Equities posted strong gains amid renewed trade-deal hopes and a supportive earnings backdrop.
- S. markets: The S&P 500 climbed and was on track to finish the month with a gain of ~+2.6%, its sixth consecutive monthly rise.
- Tech lead: The Nasdaq 100 advanced ~+1.2% during the day, buoyed by strong outlooks from major cloud and AI companies.
- Japan: The Nikkei 225 rose ~+2 % as Japanese equities drew significant foreign and domestic inflows ahead of policy stimuli.
- UK: The FTSE 100 posted modest gains, aided by strength in mining/commodities and improved global demand expectations.
Analysis:
The rally is driven by a convergence of trade-deal optimism (U.S.–China), tech momentum (AI playbook) and easing inflation worries. Japan remains the regional standout with a clear domestic catalyst. U.S. and UK markets are benefiting broadly but remain sensitive to the next earnings and data-cycle wave.
Crypto Markets
Cryptocurrencies experienced a modest setback, tracking broader market risk-rebalancing rather than leading.
- Bitcoin is on track for its first monthly loss since 2018, down nearly 5% in October.
- Ethereum and other large‐cap altcoins declined by ~2–4%, reflecting profit-taking and diminished speculative momentum.
Analysis:
Crypto remains tightly correlated with risk sentiment and equity/tech flows. The monthly loss signals waning momentum and highlights the asset class’s sensitivity to broader macro and regulatory signals. Without a fresh institutional or regulatory catalyst, short-term upside may be limited.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
