CME is getting down. Next crash, please!
Part I: Data
– U.S. markets closed the month on a mixed but stable tone, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting modest gains during a shortened post-Thanksgiving session, while the Nasdaq ended November lower. Trading was disrupted earlier in the day by a major outage at CME Group that temporarily froze futures markets globally.
– U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield rising to around 4.02–4.04% and the 30-year approaching 4.66%, as investors repositioned cautiously ahead of key data releases.
– Gold strengthened, rising roughly 1% to a two-week high near US$ 4,210/oz, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Silver also posted another monthly increase.
– Global equity funds saw their first outflow in 10 weeks, with net withdrawals of US$ 4.48 billion for the week ending 26 November, driven mainly by U.S. and European fund outflows.
– Asia-focused equity funds recorded modest inflows of ~US$ 170 million, suggesting selective re-risking in the region amid improving sentiment.
– Bond and money-market funds attracted inflows, reflecting defensive investor positioning as volatility remained elevated across asset classes.
– CME trading outage highlighted structural fragility in global markets, causing temporary spikes in volatility and delays across equities, FX, commodities, and futures contracts.
– The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly, while the euro strengthened modestly. The yen gained a small amount against the dollar, offering temporary relief after weeks of depreciation.
– Commodity markets remained mixed, with precious metals rising while energy and industrial commodities faced inconsistent trading conditions ahead of the December OPEC+ meeting.
– Market sentiment heading into December is cautious, with investors balancing Fed easing expectations against delayed U.S. macro data, geopolitical uncertainty, and stretched equity valuations.
Companies.
+) Global equities ended the week on a firmer footing, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all posting modest gains despite shortened trading hours and disrupted market flows.
+) A major CME Group outage froze trading in U.S. equity futures, FX futures, and commodities for several hours — caused by a cooling-system failure — underscoring structural risks in global derivatives infrastructure.
+) Once futures trading resumed, U.S. indices recovered: Dow Jones +0.17%, S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.19%, helped by end-of-month positioning and lighter liquidity.
+) Gold surged nearly 1% to a two-week high as investors continued to price in a December Fed rate cut; silver rallied to a fresh record above US$56/oz, driven by safe-haven flows and industrial demand.
+) Rate-cut expectations strengthened, with markets leaning toward a supportive Fed stance following weaker U.S. data earlier in the month.
+) Global equity-fund flows reversed: investors withdrew US$4.48 billion from global equity funds in the week ending Nov 26, driven by profit-taking in overextended tech names.
+) Fixed-income flows diverged as inflows concentrated in short-term U.S. bond funds, while long-duration and euro-denominated bond funds saw outflows.
+) Oil traded flat to slightly lower as traders monitored Russia–Ukraine peace developments and ahead of the OPEC+ supply meeting.
+) European equities gained modestly, supported by lower yields and broadening expectations of global monetary easing into early 2026.
+) Strategic desks warned that despite the late-week stabilisation, AI and tech valuations remain stretched, and liquidity conditions may stay fragile after the CME disruption.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Zscaler (ZS) | Demand for cloud security remained robust, supported by enterprise digital-transformation trends. | EPS beat • Revenue strong • Subscription growth solid |
| Elastic NV (ESTC) | Strong quarter driven by search & observability platform adoption. | Revenue ↑ YoY • EPS beat • FY outlook raised |
| Snowflake (SNOW) | Reported solid product revenue growth but warned of uneven cloud-spend trends. | Product revenue ↑ • RPO stable • Guidance cautious |
| Splunk (SPLK) | Security & observability units continued to drive demand. | EPS beat • Cloud ARR ↑ |
| Workday (WDAY) | Delivered strong subscription revenue in early holiday-week reporting. | EPS beat • Subscription revenue ↑ double-digits |
General
Global equities stabilize as rate-cut optimism supports a late-month rebound
Global markets ended the week on firmer ground, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rising roughly 2.7% — its first weekly gain after four weeks of losses. Renewed confidence in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December helped lift equities across Asia, Europe, and lightly traded U.S. markets following the Thanksgiving break. Risk sentiment improved as volatility eased across tech and cyclicals.
Gold extends gains while bonds rally as investors seek safety
Spot gold climbed about 0.6% to trade near USD 4,182/oz, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and persistent macro uncertainty. Gold is now set for its fourth straight monthly gain. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries continued their month-long rally, reflecting increased positioning for a more accommodative Fed policy path.
Global equity funds post first outflow in over two months
Fund-flow data signaled renewed caution despite improving sentiment. Global equity funds recorded USD 4.48 billion of net outflows for the week ending November 26, breaking a nine-week streak of inflows. U.S. and European funds saw the largest withdrawals, while Asia attracted small but positive inflows — suggesting a cautious yet selective risk appetite.
Dollar weakens as easing expectations grow; yen steady amid calmer markets
The U.S. dollar posted a weekly decline as markets priced in a high probability (~85%) of a December Fed cut. Asian FX — especially AUD and NZD — strengthened, while the Japanese yen remained stable after recent volatility. Global bond yields slipped, reflecting expectations of a softer policy backdrop heading into 2026.
Oil and commodities remain subdued on soft demand indicators
Crude oil prices remained under pressure, capped by concerns over weak global demand and persistent oversupply risks. Energy-heavy markets in the Gulf traded cautiously, unable to fully participate in the broader equity rebound due to the muted oil outlook.
Market outlook: cautiously constructive but valuation risks remain elevated
With optimism rising around 2026 easing cycles, markets remain hopeful — but analysts warn that stretched valuations, heavy tech concentration, and geopolitical uncertainties could limit upside. Investors appear to be maintaining a balanced stance, rotating selectively rather than deploying broad risk-on positions.
Upcoming News
Global markets open the first trading day of December on a cautiously optimistic footing as investors position for a data-heavy week that will shape year-end risk sentiment. With November closing on a softer U.S. growth profile and broadening disinflation signals across major economies, attention now turns to whether incoming data — particularly global PMIs, U.S. PCE inflation, Eurozone CPI, and central-bank communications — will reinforce the narrative of a synchronized easing cycle heading into 2026.
In the United States, Monday brings no major top-tier data releases, but markets are bracing for this week’s PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge. Following the recent moderation in CPI and PPI, investors expect PCE to confirm the disinflation trend. Treasury yields remain anchored near two-month lows, while the dollar trades softer as markets price in a more dovish 2026 path for the Federal Reserve. With liquidity normalizing post-Thanksgiving, cross-asset volatility may start to pick up as traders position ahead of Thursday’s PCE and Friday’s employment indicators.
Across Europe, the spotlight falls on the Eurozone November CPI flash estimate, due later this week, but Monday’s session centres on sentiment data and early inputs from ECB officials. Inflation has decelerated consistently, while growth remains fragile, keeping pressure on the ECB to signal clearer forward guidance for H1 2026. The euro trades in a tight range, supported by stabilizing credit metrics but capped by weak industrial activity.
In the Asia–Pacific region, early-month data flows begin with Japan’s Tankan preview surveys, sentiment gauges ahead of the full release. Investors continue to monitor Japan closely after consecutive months of stronger-than-expected inflation rekindled expectations of a gradual policy shift by the Bank of Japan next year. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) provides a crucial update on industrial momentum and export demand, particularly as U.S.–China trade negotiations show signs of cautious progress.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇨🇳 China | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) | 🔴 High — key gauge of production & export momentum |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Tankan Outlook Surveys (Previews) | 🟠 Medium — signals for Q1 business sentiment |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI (Nov) | 🟠 Medium — insight into European demand conditions |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Nationwide House Price Index (Nov) | 🟠 Medium — early signal for consumer and housing trends |
| 🇺🇸 United States | No major scheduled data | 🟡 Low — markets positioning ahead of PCE & NFP week |
| 🌍 Global | Central-Bank Speeches (Fed, ECB, BoE) | 🔴 High — tone-setting before inflation-heavy week |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
- EUR/USD: 15958 (+0.01%) — euro stabilized ahead of Eurozone CPI flash.
- GBP/USD: 32240 (–0.11%) — pound eased as gilt yields slipped.
- AUD/USD: 65516 (+0.27%) — Aussie firmed on stronger commodity sentiment.
- NZD/USD: 57348 (+0.09%) — kiwi supported by improving APAC risk tone.
- USD/CAD: 39846 (–0.34%) — loonie strengthened with crude oil still near $59–60/bbl.
- USD/JPY: 128 (–0.10%) — yen slightly firmer on lower U.S. yields.
Analysis:
USD broadly softer as markets priced higher odds of Fed easing into Q1 2026. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) outperformed on rising metals and energy prices.
Metals
Metals surged, especially silver, on renewed demand optimism and falling real yields.
- Gold: $4,218.77 (+1.35%)
- Silver: $56.3702 (+5.71%)
Analysis:
Gold broke higher on declining U.S. yields and weak DXY. Silver sharply outperformed, reflecting both industrial and speculative demand.
Global Indices (SPX / DJI / VIX / DXY / NAS100 / EU50)
- S&P 500: 6,849.08 (+0.54%)
- Dow Jones: 47,716.42 (+0.61%)
- VIX: 35 (–5.00%) — volatility compressed sharply.
- DXY: 479 (–0.06%)
- Nasdaq 100 (Cash CFD): 25,436.70 (+0.73%)
- EU50: 5,673.2 (+0.35%)
Analysis:
A decisive risk-on session: falling volatility supported tech and cyclicals. Markets priced benign inflation expectations and incoming Fed cuts for early 2026.
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: $90,987 (+0.08%)
- ETH/USD: $3,038.2 (+0.21%)
Analysis:
Crypto stayed directionally aligned with broader risk assets. BTC held above the $90k zone, while ETH posted modest gains but still lagged metal-linked sentiment.
Macro Data Snapshot
- S. 10Y Yield: ~3.72% (lower → bullish for metals & tech)
- Germany 10Y Yield: 72%
- UK Gilt 10Y: 68%
- Eurozone CPI Flash (prev): trending lower → reinforces ECB dovish tilt
- S. Jobless Claims: still near 210–215k, showing gradual cooling
- WTI Crude: ~$58.47 (from chart) — supports CAD
- Global PMIs: mild improvement, especially in services
Analysis:
Macro conditions remained supportive for risk: falling yields, softer inflation, better commodities, and stable jobs market. This combination fueled positive sentiment across FX, equities, and metals.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
