RBNZ Cut Rate but Pricing Already, US – EU Negotiation on bottleneck
Data
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF – 26 November 2025
– Asian equities advanced, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan gaining over 1.1% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising roughly 1.9%, supported by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in December.
– Global markets stabilized after recent valuation-driven volatility, though caution remained elevated in tech-heavy segments as investors awaited key U.S. data releases.
– U.S. Treasury yields were steady, with the 10-year benchmark hovering near the 4% handle, reflecting a wait-and-see stance as markets look toward upcoming macro releases and the December Fed meeting.
– The U.S. dollar held firm, while the Japanese yen stayed under pressure, weighed down by persistent carry-trade demand and divergence between Fed and Bank of Japan policy paths.
– Oil and commodities steadied, pausing recent declines as expectations of improving demand into early 2026 offset supply-side uncertainties.
– Rate-cut expectations continued to strengthen, with a broad set of investors positioning for a potential December move by the Fed, driving renewed demand for equities and easing financial conditions.
– Tech mega-caps attracted fresh inflows, as easing-rate expectations boosted appetite for duration-sensitive growth stocks, particularly in AI, cloud and semiconductor segments.
– Valuation risks remain acute, however, with analysts warning that the market’s narrow leadership leaves indices vulnerable to any negative surprises from U.S. macro data or shifts in Fed messaging.
– Attention now turns to the delayed U.S. data backlog, including retail sales, inflation, PCE and labour indicators, all of which are essential inputs for the Fed’s final policy decision of the year.
– Medium-term outlook stabilised but cautious: a Reuters poll suggests global equities could edge higher in 2026, though gains are expected to be far more modest than in 2025 due to slowing global growth and elevated geopolitical risks.
Companies.
+) Global equities advanced, supported by a fresh wave of expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, following multiple soft U.S. data releases and dovish shifts in market pricing.
+) Asian markets traded higher, with MSCI Asia ex-Japan up ~1.1%, as investors rotated back into growth and technology shares after last week’s repricing.
+) In the U.S., the S&P 500 gained ~0.9%, Dow Jones +1.4%, and Nasdaq Composite +0.7%, marking a fourth straight session of gains heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.
+) Semiconductor and AI-linked stocks led the rally, with names such as Analog Devices boosting sentiment across the chip sector as investors bought the dip.
+) U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stabilized near 4%, helping lift duration-sensitive equities and reducing volatility across global bond markets.
+) Fed rate-cut expectations strengthened: market-implied probability of a December 25bps cut continued to rise, reinforcing the shift toward a more supportive policy narrative.
+) Gold and other defensive assets ticked higher as investors maintained partial hedging despite the broader risk-on tone.
+) Oil prices remained stable, with Brent crude hovering near the mid-US$60s amid balanced supply conditions and subdued holiday-week liquidity.
+) Liquidity thinned sharply ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving market closure, raising the potential for outsized moves in equities and FX.
+) With U.S. macro data still partially delayed from the shutdown, markets increasingly relied on corporate earnings, Fed speakers, and positioning flows for direction into month-end.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Foot Locker (FL) | Reported weaker sales amid ongoing discretionary softness, though margins improved slightly. | EPS: Miss • Revenue: Lower YoY • Outlook: Soft |
| Kohl’s (KSS) | Delivered mixed quarterly results, benefiting from cost cuts despite pressured traffic. | EPS: Slight beat • Revenue: Flat • Holiday guide: Cautious |
| Burlington Stores (BURL) | Value-driven demand supported results; off-price retail remains resilient. | EPS/Rev: Beat • Inventory: Well-managed |
| Urban Outfitters (URBN) | Digital sales strength offset weaker store traffic; profitability improved. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: In line |
| NetEase (NTES) | Gaming revenue continued to rise ahead of year-end releases; cloud stable. | Revenue: ↑ YoY • Bookings: Higher |
| Trip.com (TCOM) | Travel recovery accelerated into Q4; outbound bookings strong. | EPS/Revenue: Beat • Travel demand: Robust |
| Baozun (BZUN) | Margins remained under pressure due to logistics costs despite stable GMV. | Revenue: Flat • Margins: Weaker |
| HP Enterprise (HPE) | Edge-to-cloud business remained a growth driver; strong ARR momentum. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: Slight increase |
| Autodesk (ADSK) | Delivered strong subscription growth; recurring revenue model outperforming. | EPS: Beat • FY guidance: Raised |
| NetApp (NTAP) | Cloud and hybrid storage demand supported positive earnings performance. | EPS: Above expectations • Cloud ARR: ↑ |
General
Global equities rebound as December Fed-cut expectations strengthen
Global stock markets advanced, supported by a broad improvement in risk sentiment as investors increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Tech and semiconductor names led the move higher, with markets reverting to a moderate “buy-the-dip” stance following recent volatility.
Dollar softens while Asian FX finds support on easing expectations
The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower as expectations for Fed easing firmed. Asian currencies — including the AUD and NZD — strengthened on regional inflation surprises and supportive central-bank decisions. The improved FX backdrop helped lift sentiment across Asia’s equity markets.
European equities rise ahead of UK budget statement
European stocks traded higher as investors anticipated a more accommodative global policy environment. Financials and industrials outperformed, while attention turned to the U.K. Autumn Budget, where fiscal-policy direction remained a key market driver.
Gold holds firm as yields decline and risk appetite stabilizes
Spot gold continued to trade near recent highs, supported by declining U.S. real yields and increased investor hedging ahead of key U.S. data releases. Softer yields also buoyed fixed-income products and high-dividend equities.
Strategists warn that 2026 equity performance may lag despite current optimism
A Reuters poll of global strategists projected that while stocks may continue to edge higher in 2026, returns are unlikely to match the strong gains of 2025. Concentrated valuations in AI-linked sectors and uncertainty around monetary-policy timing were cited as top risks.
Oil markets remain cautious as demand signals stay mixed
Oil prices showed only modest support from the weaker dollar, with Brent crude holding steady but capped by concerns over global fuel demand and ongoing oversupply pressures. Commodity-sensitive sectors remained defensive amid soft manufacturing signals.
Upcoming News
Global markets step into Thursday with a lighter macro calendar but elevated sensitivity to the aftermath of Wednesday’s U.S. data releases. The softer-than-expected components in U.S. Durable Goods Orders and a moderate Q3 GDP print have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias into early 2026. With U.S. markets partially closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, global trading conditions are expected to be thinner, making cross-asset moves more reactive to headlines and second-tier data. Treasury yields remain subdued, and the U.S. dollar stays on the defensive as investors recalibrate growth expectations.
In Europe, attention shifts to the European Central Bank Meeting Minutes, one of the day’s most important scheduled releases. Markets will scrutinize the minutes for any deeper signals on how soon the ECB is preparing to align its policy path with the Fed, especially as Eurozone inflation trends lower and business sentiment stabilizes. The euro may see sharper-than-usual intraday swings given the thinner holiday liquidity in U.S. markets.
Across the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s Retail Sales (Oct) and Australia’s Construction Work Done (Q3) provide regional insight into consumption and investment momentum heading into year-end. Japanese households continue to face real-wage pressures despite rising inflation, keeping the Bank of Japan in a delicate position as investors anticipate a gradual 2026 policy normalization. Meanwhile, China’s markets remain steady as incremental signs of credit stabilization and improved capital flows continue to underpin risk sentiment.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | ECB Meeting Minutes | 🔴 High — key policy signal for 2026 rate-cut timing |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Retail Sales (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — consumption gauge feeding into BoJ outlook |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Construction Work Done (Q3) | 🟠 Medium — indicator of investment and housing strength |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | GfK Consumer Climate (Dec) | 🟠 Medium — forward sentiment for Eurozone’s largest economy |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Thanksgiving Holiday (Markets Closed) | 🟡 Low — reduced global liquidity |
| 🌍 Global | Central-Bank Officials’ Remarks (ECB, BoE, BoJ) | 🔴 High — tone may influence FX and yields in thin markets |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
Risk appetite improved as equities rebounded sharply and U.S. yields stabilized, while the dollar softened slightly. The Dollar Index (DXY) edged down to 99.262 (–0.23%), with most majors firming modestly against the USD.
- EUR/USD: 16017 (+0.06%) — euro strengthened on lower U.S. real yields and improving Eurozone sentiment.
- GBP/USD: 32446 (+0.04%) — sterling supported by resilient U.K. services and steady gilt curve.
- AUD/USD: 65239 (+0.10%) — Aussie firmed on risk-on tone and stable commodity prices.
- NZD/USD: 57040 (+0.09%) — kiwi tracked AUD higher amid higher beta-FX flows.
- USD/CAD: 40402 (–0.04%) — loonie benefited from firmer oil.
- USD/JPY: 229 (–0.12%) — yen gained slightly as U.S. yields eased intraday.
Analysis:
USD retreated as global equities rallied and safe-haven demand unwound. Commodity FX outperformed, while JPY recovered mildly thanks to softer U.S. yields. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and Fed communication.
Metals
Precious metals ticked higher as the dollar softened and real yields drifted lower.
- Gold: $4,165.65 (+0.07%) — gold held gains with improving macro hedging demand.
- Silver: $53.4316 (+0.20%) — silver outperformed gold on industrial demand.
Analysis:
Metals benefited from a weaker USD and supportive rate expectations. Silver led the complex amid stronger manufacturing signals.
Global Indices (SPX / DJI / VIX / DXY / NDX / EU50)
Equities rallied strongly with tech and cyclicals both advancing, while volatility retreated.
- S&P 500: 6,812.60 (+0.69%)
- Dow Jones: 47,427.12 (+0.67%)
- VIX: 19 (–7.38%)
- DXY: 262 (–0.23%)
- Nasdaq 100 (Cash CFD): 25,276.77 (+0.06%)
- EU50: 5,652.9 (+0.01%)
Analysis:
Risk sentiment strengthened materially as earnings remained solid and recession odds eased. VIX dropped sharply, signaling a shift back toward risk-on positioning.
Crypto Markets
Crypto rebounded strongly with broad-based gains as macro risk appetite improved.
- BTC/USD: $90,505 (+3.63%)
- ETH/USD: $3,027.2 (+2.32%)
Analysis:
Flows into high-beta assets supported crypto. BTC attempted to reclaim the $90k+ range, while ETH led altcoins with improving network activity and lower volatility.
Macro Data Snapshot
- S. 10Y Yield: ~3.78% (slightly lower intraday)
- Germany 10Y Yield: 78% (stable)
- K. 10Y Gilt: 3.75%
- China Manufacturing PMI: 8 (soft but improving)
- Eurozone Services PMI: 2 (expansionary)
- Crude Oil Benchmark: $58.48 (WTI CFD)
Analysis:
Global macro indicators tilted supportive for risk assets: bond yields softened, PMIs improved marginally, and inflation dynamics remained favorable. These factors collectively helped risk-on flows across FX, equities, and crypto.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
