US – China on negotiation, but now they are different from the previous one.
Data
– Asian equities gained, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rising 0.75 %, as traders increased bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut following a string of dovish comments from policymakers.
– Fed expectations surged, with futures markets pricing an ~85 % probability of a 25 bps cut — up from ~42 % one week earlier — after Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted ongoing labour-market softness.
– U.S. Treasury yields were steady, with the 10-year near 4.04 % and the 2-year around 3.50 %, reflecting stability despite shifting policy expectations.
– U.S. equities advanced, led by large-cap tech: Dow Jones +1.43 %, S&P 500 +0.91 %, Nasdaq +0.67 %, supported by renewed AI-sector momentum.
– Alphabet rallied, after reports that Meta Platforms is in talks to source AI chips from Alphabet for its data-centre expansion, reinforcing optimism over big-tech collaboration.
– U.S. retail data signalled consumer softness: September retail sales rose 0.2 %, while consumer confidence fell to 88.7, its lowest level since April — raising questions about consumption robustness heading into year-end.
– The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 100.25, steady despite rising rate-cut expectations, while the yen remained weak due to persistent carry-trades and policy divergence.
– European markets were subdued, with the STOXX 600 edging −0.2 %, as investors waited for delayed U.S. retail and inflation data before adjusting positioning.
– Market visibility remains constrained, with the U.S. data backlog, narrow tech leadership, and elevated valuations continuing to present structural fragility.
– Outlook: Rising Fed-cut bets and strong tech performance are supporting the rally, but analysts caution that the market remains highly sensitive to incoming data and liquidity shifts.
Companies.
+) Asian equities edged higher, with MSCI Asia ex-Japan up ~0.75%, as traders increased their bets on a December Fed rate cut following dovish-leaning Fed commentary.
+) Fed rate-cut probability surged to ~85%, sharply higher from ~42% a week earlier, supporting risk-on flows into tech, growth, and long-duration assets.
+) European equities traded mixed, with the STOXX 600 slipping ~0.2% as investors stayed cautious ahead of the first major U.S. macro releases (Retail Sales & PPI) since the government shutdown.
+) U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near ~4.04%, while the Dollar Index traded steadily despite rising cut expectations — reflecting cautious positioning before key data.
+) Thin liquidity ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday continued to amplify intraday volatility across equities, bonds, and FX.
+) Tech stocks led Asia’s rebound, as investors rotated back into growth sectors on improved monetary-policy visibility.
+) Despite improving sentiment, analysts warned that AI-linked valuations remain stretched, with tech market caps continuing to outgrow earnings contribution.
+) Oil traded mixed, stabilizing near US$64–65/bbl, while gold held firm on light safe-haven flows.
+) Markets continued to operate under partial macro “blind spots” due to delayed U.S. economic data, making earnings announcements and Fed commentary disproportionately influential.
+) Investors now look ahead to the delayed U.S. Retail Sales, PPI, and additional corporate earnings next week, which may shape year-end flows.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | Expected to post strong AI-server revenue growth, with continued PC softness. | EPS est.: US$ 2.26 (+17.7% YoY) • Key watch: AI/PC revenue mix |
| HP Inc. (HPQ) | PC market weakness likely to pressure revenue; margins remain in focus. | EPS est.: US$ 0.91 (-2.1% YoY) |
| NetApp (NTAP) | Hybrid-cloud and storage demand driving stable topline ahead of results. | EPS est.: US$ 1.51 (-1.3% YoY) • Watch: Cloud ARR |
| Workday (WDAY) | Subscriptions remain a key growth engine; expected strong SaaS momentum. | EPS est.: US$ 0.90 (+11.1% YoY) |
| Urban Outfitters (URBN) | Digital strength expected to offset soft in-store traffic; holiday guide in focus. | EPS est.: US$ 1.19 (+8.2% YoY) |
| Burlington Stores (BURL) | Value-retail resilience continues; insights into discretionary trade-down trends. | Q3 results released: Positive retail demand signals |
| Kohl’s (KSS) | Facing ongoing pressure in discretionary spending; holiday outlook critical. | Reported Q3: Mixed trends |
| MIND Technology (MIND) | Scheduled release of Q3 results for FY2026; small-cap investor focus. | Conference call set: Q3 FY2026 |
| HP Enterprise (HPE) | Expected to show strength in edge-to-cloud networking demand. | General coverage: Strong ARR momentum |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | Semiconductor equipment cycle remains key driver; AI-capex tailwinds. | General coverage: Bookings strong YoY |
General
U.S. equities advance as December Fed-cut expectations strengthen
Global markets moved higher, led by Wall Street, as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The S&P 500 climbed nearly 0.9% while the Dow Jones gained about 1.4%, supported by softer economic indicators and renewed optimism across megacap tech. Traders continued to position for easier financial conditions heading into year-end.
Asia-Pacific equities rebound on tech momentum and supportive rate outlook
Asian shares recovered, tracking the U.S. tech-led gains. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose around 0.75%, with China’s CSI 300 up over 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 held relatively stable following prior sessions of volatility. Improved risk sentiment and rising expectations for global easing cycles helped lift regional tech and semiconductor stocks.
European markets trade cautiously ahead of key U.S. data releases
European equities were mixed to slightly lower, with the STOXX 600 slipping about 0.2%. Investors remained cautious as they awaited the release of delayed U.S. macro data following the prolonged shutdown. Defence and aerospace stocks were among the few gainers amid renewed discussions surrounding Russia–Ukraine diplomacy.
Gold stabilizes near recent highs as real yields decline
Spot gold held firm around USD 4,141/oz, supported by lower U.S. Treasury real yields and growing conviction that the Fed will begin easing next month. The U.S. dollar traded broadly steady around the 100 level, reflecting balanced flows between risk-on sentiment and hedging exposure ahead of key data.
Oil prices remain muted on soft demand indicators
Brent crude traded near USD 63 per barrel, slipping modestly as ongoing concerns about global demand overshadowed supply-side constraints. Traders noted that oil markets continue to react sensitively to U.S. consumer data and China’s uneven recovery trajectory.
Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.–China dialogue improves, Japan–China tensions persist
Markets absorbed reports of improving diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China, including the prospect of a future presidential meeting in Beijing. However, regional tensions between Japan and China over travel advisories and geopolitical disagreements continued to weigh slightly on Asian market sentiment.
Upcoming News
Global markets turn their full attention to the United States today as a cluster of high-impact macro releases is set to provide the clearest read in weeks on the strength of U.S. economic momentum. The headline event is the Advance Q3 GDP, a print carrying exceptional weight given the recent gaps in U.S. data availability. Markets are looking for confirmation that growth is slowing in an orderly fashion — consistent with a soft-landing narrative — but any downside surprise could reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve easing in early 2026. Alongside GDP, the releases of Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending, and Wholesale Inventories will offer a fuller picture of underlying consumption, investment, and supply-chain dynamics. These data points collectively have the potential to move yields, risk assets, and the U.S. dollar meaningfully within the session.
In Japan, markets digest updates to the Leading Economic Index and Machine Tool Orders, which provide additional insight into investment trends following recent upward pressure on inflation. Meanwhile, sentiment across Europe remains steady but cautious, with investors awaiting central-bank minutes later in the week.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇺🇸 United States | GDP (Q3, Advance) | 🔴 High |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Durable Goods Orders (Oct, Preliminary) | 🔴 High |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Personal Income & Spending (Oct) | 🔴 High |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Wholesale Inventories (Oct, Preliminary) | 🔴 High |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Leading Economic Index (Sep, Final) | 🟠 Medium |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Machine Tool Orders (Oct, Final) | 🟠 Medium |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened to 99.792 (–0.39%) on November 25 as risk sentiment improved and U.S. equities extended gains. Most G7 currencies traded with a mild pro-risk bias, with NZD and GBP leading the advance while JPY strengthened modestly.
EUR/USD: 1.15701 (0.00%) — euro flat in quiet trading.
AUD/USD: 0.64707 (+0.02%) — Aussie ticked higher with commodities.
GBP/USD: 1.31688 (+0.03%) — sterling firmed on improved sentiment.
NZD/USD: 0.56626 (+0.11%) — kiwi was the strongest G7 FX performer.
USD/CAD: 1.41007 (+0.02%) — CAD slightly weaker as oil dipped intraday.
USD/JPY: 156.102 (+0.05%) — yen softened marginally despite lower DXY.
Analysis:
FX markets continued to reflect gentle risk-on positioning. USD weakness was broad but controlled. NZD and GBP outperformed, while JPY did not attract haven flows, suggesting equity optimism overshadowed defensive currency demand.
Metals
Metals were mixed as gold saw mild support while silver slipped.
Gold: US$ 4,133.53/oz (+0.08%) — modest bid as yields steadied.
Silver: US$ 51.4122/oz (–0.06%) — slight decline on softer industrial tone.
Analysis:
Gold benefited from marginal USD weakness, while silver’s softness reflected muted industrial demand. Price action stayed tight and orderly.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Global equities strengthened, with U.S. indices recording solid gains. Tech outperformed, volatility declined sharply, and the Dow approached new multi-week highs.
S&P 500: 6,768.69 (+0.91%) — strong broad-based rally.
Dow Jones (DJI): 47,112.45 (+1.43%) — large-cap cyclicals led gains.
Nasdaq 100: 25,026.75 (+0.06%) — tech held flat after prior strong sessions.
FTSE 100: ~9,610 (+0.2%) — modest gain led by energy.
Nikkei 225: ~49,300 (+0.3%) — exporters supported by stable yen.
VIX: 18.86 (–9.56%) — volatility collapsed to lowest in weeks.
Analysis:
Equities extended their rally as volatility fell sharply, signaling renewed appetite for risk assets. The Dow outperformed with strong cyclical rotation, while the Nasdaq paused but remained near recent highs.
Crypto Markets
Crypto saw mild weakness in BTC but a rebound in ETH.
BTCUSD: US$ 87,514 (–0.84%)
ETHUSD: US$ 2,964.3 (+0.40%)
Analysis:
Bitcoin slipped as traders took profit after last week’s rebound, while Ethereum showed relative strength with modest gains. Crypto flows remained directionally muted despite stronger risk sentiment in equities.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
