Bumping at Night,
Data
– Global equities rebounded as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened. Dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and John Williams, lifted market-implied odds of a 25 bps cut to ~67 %.
– Large-cap technology stocks led the rally, reversing part of last week’s AI-driven correction and boosting risk sentiment across major equity benchmarks.
– The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, with the DXY slipping ~0.1 %, while the euro firmed. The Japanese yen hit a 10-month low, reflecting divergent policy expectations and persistent carry-trade dynamics.
– Safe-haven assets advanced: both U.S. Treasuries and gold strengthened despite the broader risk-on tone, signalling cautious hedging ahead of delayed economic data.
– Tech companies accelerated debt issuance, with firms such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle collectively raising ~US$ 100 billion in bond markets to finance AI and cloud-infrastructure expansion.
– Trade-policy risk resurfaced, as reports indicated the U.S. is weighing whether to permit NVIDIA to sell advanced H200 chips to China — a potential shift in semiconductor-export restrictions.
– Delayed U.S. macro data remains a drag: key releases (Retail Sales, PPI) are still pending due to the government shutdown, leaving the Fed to navigate into December with incomplete information.
– Market “watch list” broadening: investors are monitoring Black Friday retail results, inflation expectations, and geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.–Ukraine diplomatic discussions.
– Market breadth improved but remains narrow, with gains concentrated in megacap technology while mid-caps and cyclicals continue to lag.
– Outlook: Markets are in a “relief rally” phase, supported by dovish Fed expectations but constrained by data uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and the concentration of index gains.
Companies.
+) Global equities advanced, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver a December rate cut, after several policymakers struck a more dovish tone.
+) Fed rate-cut probability for December 10 increased to ~67%, boosting risk sentiment across equities and credit markets.
+) In Europe, FTSE 250 snapped an 8-day losing streak, rising ~0.3%, as UK housing and construction stocks rebounded ahead of the fiscal budget announcement.
+) U.S. tech megacaps gained, lifting the Nasdaq 100 higher as easing rate expectations improved the risk-reward profile for duration-sensitive growth stocks.
+) Gold and U.S. Treasuries strengthened simultaneously, signaling a broad-based risk-on move with defensive flows still active.
+) Oil prices stabilized near US$64–65/bbl, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and cautious optimism on global demand.
+) Market participation remained thin ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, increasing the risk of outsized intraday swings.
+) Asian markets were positioned to track the U.S. rally, although Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday, limiting regional liquidity.
+) Analysts noted that while Nvidia-led optimism helped stabilize sentiment, the structural debate around AI-capex sustainability and valuation risks remains unresolved.
+) Investors focused on the upcoming backlog of U.S. data—PPI, retail sales, and delayed macro prints—which may significantly reshape near-term policy expectations.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Zoom Video Communications (ZM) | Reported solid quarterly results driven by enterprise upgrades and AI-enabled productivity tools. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: Above expectations • Enterprise customers: ↑ YoY |
| Agilent Technologies (A) | Delivered mixed results as instrument demand remained soft; China recovery slower than expected. | EPS: In line • Revenue: Slight miss • Guidance: Cautious |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | AI server demand improved but PC segment remained weak; margin stabilization noted. | AI server revenue: ↑ • PC revenue: ↓ • EPS: Beat |
| HP Enterprise (HPE) | Strong cloud and edge-to-cloud networking demand supported earnings. | ARR: ↑ double-digit • EPS/Rev: Beat |
| Autodesk (ADSK) | Solid recurring revenue growth driven by design and engineering software subscriptions. | Subscription revenue: ↑ • EPS: Beat • FY outlook: Raised |
| Urban Outfitters (URBN) | Benefited from stronger digital sales but store traffic remained uneven. | EPS: Over expectations • Revenue: In line |
| J.M. Smucker (SJM) | Delivered stable results supported by strong demand in core branded foods. | EPS: Beat • Margins: Stable |
| NetEase (NTES) | Gaming division performed strongly ahead of holiday season; cloud services remained steady. | Revenue: ↑ YoY • Gaming bookings: ↑ |
| Trip.com (TCOM) | Continued travel recovery pushed revenue higher; outbound tourism remains key growth driver. | EPS/Rev: Beat • Bookings: ↑ YoY |
| Baozun (BZUN) | Reported weaker margins due to higher logistics costs despite stable GMV. | Revenue: Flat • Margins: Under pressure |
General
Equities rebound sharply as markets ramp up expectations of a December Fed cut
Global equities rose strongly, led by U.S. tech stocks, as investors boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The S&P 500 gained around 1.55% and the Nasdaq Composite surged nearly 2.7%, largely driven by renewed strength in the “Magnificent Seven.” European and Asian markets followed with moderate gains, supported by easing yields and improving risk sentiment.
Gold climbs over 1% as yields fall and dollar weakens
Spot gold advanced roughly 1.2% to around USD 4,111/oz, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar. Investors turned increasingly to safe-haven assets while anticipating a more accommodative Fed stance heading into year-end.
U.S. GDP reporting disrupted as BEA cancels advance Q3 estimate
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) cancelled the advance estimate for U.S. Q3 GDP, citing data-collection disruptions caused by the prolonged government shutdown. The cancellation adds uncertainty to the macro picture, leaving markets without a key growth signal ahead of the December FOMC meeting.
Alphabet accelerates toward USD 4 trillion valuation amid AI-driven rally
Shares of Alphabet Inc. jumped more than 5%, pushing the company closer to a USD 4 trillion valuation milestone. Analysts attributed the move to accelerating momentum in AI deployment, cloud services, and robust digital advertising trends, reinforcing the dominance of U.S. megacap tech.
Dollar softens while yen remains pressured; U.S. yields drift lower
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped slightly as rate-cut expectations firmed, though the Japanese yen remained under downward pressure due to monetary-policy divergence and persistent intervention concerns. Falling U.S. yields supported risk assets and reinforced the broad rally in global equities.
Oil ekes out gains while diesel markets diverge on supply dynamics
Brent crude edged higher as risk sentiment improved, though gains remained moderate due to mixed macro signals and ongoing concerns about global fuel demand. Diesel markets, however, diverged from crude, with refining margins staying elevated amid logistical bottlenecks and supply-chain disruptions.
Upcoming News
Markets begin Tuesday cautiously, recognising a relatively light official-data calendar but remaining sensitive to tone and guidance as the global easing narrative hangs in the balance. In the U.S., attention centres on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, both of which provide early readings of housing-market momentum and regional industrial health—areas now absorbing heightened scrutiny amid weaker macro prints elsewhere. Softness in either may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain an accommodative path well into 2026, keeping yields capped and the dollar pressured.
In Europe, while no marquee inflation or growth prints are scheduled, the absence of fresh catalysts itself may encourage traders to focus on upcoming policy-minutes releases and any ad-hoc remarks from central-bank officials. With the European Central Bank having flagged potential rate cuts next year amid easing inflation and soft growth, markets will remain attentive to any signs that the bank is preparing to follow the Fed in easing.
Across Asia–Pacific, the economic agenda is quiet. Chinese investment-flow data and Japanese market commentary will tick in the background, but trade and policy headlines—especially any developments in the World Trade Organization sphere or U.S.–China dialogue—are likely to carry out-sized influence relative to posted releases. The lack of major scheduled data suggests markets may trade range-bound, with directional moves hinging on surprises or commentary rather than scheduled events.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇺🇸 United States | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Sep) | 🔴 High |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 🔴 High |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | — (No major scheduled data) | 🟠 Medium |
| 🇨🇳 China | FDI / Investment Flow Updates (Oct) | 🟠 Medium |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | — (Light data day) | 🟡 Low–Medium |
| 🌍 Global | Central-Bank Officials’ Speeches | 🔴 High |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 100.185 (–0.01%) on November 24 as market sentiment improved and volatility fell sharply. Most G7 currencies traded in tight, orderly ranges, with modest strength in AUD and slight softness in EUR.
EUR/USD: 1.15208 (0.00%) — euro held flat in quiet trading.
AUD/USD: 0.64656 (+0.06%) — Aussie firmed on better risk tone.
GBP/USD: 1.31061 (+0.01%) — sterling inched higher with improving sentiment.
NZD/USD: 0.56110 (0.00%) — stable near recent levels.
USD/CAD: 1.41089 (+0.01%) — CAD slightly weaker despite firmer oil.
USD/JPY: 156.391 (+0.02%) — yen modestly softer with yields steady.
Analysis:
FX markets were quiet as volatility eased and U.S. yields remained stable. Commodity currencies outperformed thanks to firmer risk appetite, while EUR and GBP traded narrowly. JPY weakness was mild, reflecting continued carry demand.
Metals
Precious metals were mixed, with gold steady and silver slightly lower.
Gold: US$ 4,134.57/oz (0.00%) — unchanged as yields and USD stabilized.
Silver: US$ 51.2736/oz (–0.14%) — small pullback amid softer industrial sentiment.
Analysis:
Gold’s consolidation reflects equilibrium between improved risk appetite and still-elevated macro uncertainty. Silver’s mild decline indicates cautious positioning in industrial metals.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Global equities strengthened broadly, led by U.S. markets. Volatility dropped sharply, while rotational flows favored tech and growth stocks.
S&P 500: 6,705.11 (+1.55%) — strong rally on risk appetite recovery.
Dow Jones (DJI): 46,448.27 (+0.44%) — moderate gain, lagging Nasdaq and S&P.
Nasdaq 100: 24,239.57 (+0.77%) — tech extended its rebound.
FTSE 100: ~9,570 (+0.3%) — modest advance supported by energy.
Nikkei 225: ~49,180 (+0.4%) — exporters benefited from softer JPY.
VIX: 20.52 (–12.42%) — sharp drop in volatility.
Analysis:
Equity markets continued their recovery with strong two-way participation across tech, cyclicals, and financials. The VIX decline confirmed improved sentiment as investors rotated back into risk assets following last week’s turbulence.
Crypto Markets
Crypto markets surged, with both BTC and ETH extending strong gains as sentiment improved across risk assets.
BTCUSD: US$ 88,349 (+1.78%)
ETHUSD: US$ 2,957.6 (+5.99%) — major outperformance.
Analysis:
Crypto participated strongly in the global risk-on rally. ETH led gains with nearly +6%, supported by broad altcoin rotation and improved liquidity conditions. BTC held solid momentum above 88k.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
