Recap for next week
Data
– Global equities fell sharply, led by a deepening tech-sector selloff. The MSCI Asia-Pacific −2.2 %, Nikkei 225 −2.2 %, and Taiwan −3.4 %, as AI-linked momentum continued to unwind ahead of key U.S. macro releases.
– Mixed U.S. labour data added uncertainty: solid job gains contrasted with rising unemployment and downward revisions. Traders now price only ~40 % probability of a December Fed rate cut.
– European equities weakened, with the STOXX 600 −0.9 % — its lowest since early October. Tech stocks dropped ~2.6 %, while defence shares fell on optimism over potential Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.
– Oil extended losses, with Brent ~US$ 62.55 / bbl and WTI ~US$ 58.08 / bbl, pressured by expectations of firmer supply if a peace framework advances and by broader risk-off sentiment.
– The U.S. dollar strengthened, as global hedging flows moderated. The slowing of the widely anticipated dollar-hedge rush suggested stabilisation in USD demand and shifted implications for EM currency risk.
– Market structure concerns intensified: strategists warned that the narrow leadership of AI and megacap tech — previously driving 2025 gains — is now reversing, highlighting vulnerabilities in market breadth and liquidity dynamics.
– Japan announced a ¥21.3 trillion (≈US$ 135 billion) stimulus package, pressuring the yen toward a 10-month low and lifting Japanese government bond yields on fiscal-sustainability concerns.
– Bond markets reflected risk aversion: JGB yields climbed, while core U.S. Treasury yields were stable amid cautious positioning.
– Investor sentiment turned defensive, with fund-flow data and intraday market commentary pointing to rotation into safer assets as macro uncertainty (Fed path, China growth, U.S. data backlog) weighed on conviction.
– Outlook: Markets enter a “wait-and-watch” phase ahead of delayed U.S. payroll and inflation data, NVIDIA follow-through, and the December Fed meeting — with volatility likely to stay elevated.
Companies.
+) Global equities declined broadly as investors struggled to interpret a contradictory U.S. labor update showing both strong job gains and a rising unemployment rate, creating uncertainty around the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory.
+) The Nasdaq Composite recorded its largest intraday swing since April, reflecting heightened volatility in AI- and semiconductor-linked names despite Nvidia’s recent earnings beat.
+) Asia-Pacific markets extended the selloff: Japan’s Nikkei 225 –2.2%, South Korea’s KOSPI –3.7%, and Taiwan’s TAIEX –3.4%, as export and chip-sector concerns pressured sentiment.
+) Analysts warned that the AI-driven rally is showing structural cracks, with questions emerging around hyperscaler capex sustainability, margin pressure, and earnings quality across tech.
+) Safe-haven flows resumed as markets turned defensive: the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries strengthened, while gold found support after earlier profit-taking.
+) Oil prices weakened, with Brent trading lower on reports of renewed Russia–Ukraine peace discussions, softening geopolitical premium and affecting risk appetite in energy markets.
+) Global fund flow data indicated US$4.43 billion of equity inflows for the week ending November 19, highlighting investor dip-buying behavior despite falling stock indices.
+) Market participants remained cautious due to persistently thin market breadth, with selling pressure extending from technology to cyclicals, discretionary, and financials.
+) The absence of fresh U.S. macro data due to the government shutdown continued to reduce visibility, forcing markets to rely heavily on corporate earnings and Fed communication for direction.
+) Algorithmic and CTA-driven selling increased toward the close, pointing to shrinking liquidity conditions and heightened sensitivity to macro shocks ahead of year-end.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Gap Inc. (GPS) | Stronger-than-expected profitability supported by cost-cutting and disciplined inventories. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: Above expectations • Margins: Improved YoY |
| Ross Stores (ROST) | Off-price retail momentum persisted as consumers traded down amid economic uncertainty. | Revenue/EPS: Beat • Inventory: Well-controlled |
| Williams-Sonoma (WSM) | Home-furnishing demand remained resilient; e-commerce remained a key driver. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: In line to slightly higher • Outlook: Stable |
| Intuit (INTU) | Strong quarter driven by tax services, SMB cloud adoption, and Credit Karma engagement. | EPS: Beat • Revenue: Higher YoY • Cloud SMB: Strong growth |
| Keysight Technologies (KEYS) | Mixed results due to uneven semiconductor and communications testing demand. | EPS: Slight beat • Revenue: Slight miss • Orders: Weakening |
| Workday (WDAY) | Robust cloud HR & Finance software demand; FY subscription revenue guidance raised. | EPS/Revenue: Beat • Subscription growth: Double-digit |
| BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) | Defensive wholesale model benefited from strong membership renewals and stable traffic. | EPS: Beat • Outlook: Neutral • Traffic: Stable |
| Foot Locker (FL) | Weaker discretionary demand continued to pressure sales; guidance remained soft. | Revenue: Miss • Margins: Under pressure |
| Nordstrom (JWN) | Mixed performance: weak store traffic offset by improved operating margins via cost control. | EPS: Slight beat • Revenue: Flat • Guidance: Conservative |
| The Buckle (BKE) | Apparel softness persisted; discretionary spending remained weak. | Revenue: Down YoY • Margins: Stable |
General
Global equities retreat as tech sell-off intensifies and Fed-cut expectations weaken
Global markets faced renewed selling pressure as the AI-driven tech correction deepened, with the Nasdaq posting its sharpest intraday swings since April. Despite Nvidia’s upbeat earnings earlier in the week, investors remained concerned about stretched valuations across semiconductor and megacap tech names. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended modestly higher on Friday, but the overall weekly trend pointed to broad weakness across global risk assets.
U.S. manufacturing slows sharply, raising concerns about softening demand
Flash PMI data showed U.S. manufacturing activity slowing to 51.9, the weakest pace in four months, as new orders softened and inventory accumulation increased. The report highlighted fragile domestic demand conditions and added to uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s December policy stance.
Dollar firm as yen weakens to 10-month low amid Japan stimulus signals
The U.S. dollar held steady on safe-haven flows and higher U.S. yields, while the Japanese yen weakened further after Tokyo unveiled a sizeable fiscal stimulus package. Japan’s declining yields raised renewed concerns of potential FX intervention as USD/JPY hovered near 10-month highs.
Oil declines for a third session on Russia-Ukraine diplomacy and macro headwinds
Brent crude extended its decline toward USD 62.5 per barrel, weighed down by reports of diplomatic progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations that could unlock future supply. Weak global manufacturing indicators and reduced risk appetite also contributed to softer oil demand expectations.
Market breadth narrows as positioning remains crowded in megacap tech
Despite isolated rebounds, underlying market indicators pointed to widening fragility: fund flows showed limited participation beyond a narrow group of AI-linked names, while low cash buffers across global portfolios heightened downside risk. Strategists emphasized that crowded positioning remains a key vulnerability.
U.S. lawmakers intensify scrutiny of semiconductor export rules
In Washington, lawmakers advanced proposals aimed at tightening oversight of semiconductor export licensing to prevent potential monopolistic control. The move underscores ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding chip supply chains, adding to the structural headwinds facing the global tech sector.
Upcoming News
Global markets begin the final week of November in a steady but data-sensitive mode as investors position ahead of a series of high-impact releases later in the week, including U.S. PCE inflation, global flash PMIs, and central-bank minutes from both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. With last week dominated by softer U.S. regional manufacturing and stabilizing global inflation, markets now enter a consolidation phase, waiting for stronger confirmation that the global easing cycle remains intact heading into 2026.
In the United States, Monday offers a light calendar, with attention focused mainly on expectations for Thursday’s PCE inflation — the Fed’s preferred gauge. With CPI and PPI prints already showing broad disinflation, markets are looking for PCE to validate the narrative and potentially reinforce expectations for another Fed rate cut in early 2026. U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-week lows, and the dollar trades defensively as investors await clearer directional catalysts.
Across Europe, sentiment is cautious ahead of the release of Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index, a key forward-looking gauge for Europe’s largest economy. Recent industrial softness and weak export momentum have kept pressure on the Eurozone outlook, though easing inflation is helping anchor expectations for ECB policy alignment with the Fed next year. The euro remains stable, supported by improving current-account dynamics.
In the Asia–Pacific region, markets are modestly firmer as investors respond to continued signs of stabilization in China’s investment flows and firming regional demand indicators. Japanese equities open mixed as the yen consolidates after stronger Tokyo inflation last week, which increased speculation about a gradual BoJ policy shift in 2026. Australia and South Korea also trade firmly, supported by strong risk appetite and resilient commodity demand.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) | 🔴 High — major sentiment gauge for Eurozone’s growth trajectory |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | CBI Industrial Trends (Nov) | 🟠 Medium — forward-looking snapshot of manufacturing orders |
| 🇺🇸 United States | FOMC Members’ Speeches | 🔴 High — tone-setting ahead of PCE and Fed minutes |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Coincident & Leading Index (Final) | 🟠 Medium — confirms near-term growth momentum |
| 🇨🇳 China | FDI / Investment Flow Updates | 🟠 Medium — reflects progress in capital-flow stabilization |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | ECB Officials’ Remarks | 🔴 High — guidance ahead of Thursday’s ECB minutes |
| 🌍 Global | G20 / Trade Dialogue Developments | 🟠 Medium — potential headlines affecting risk sentiment |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened slightly to 100.196 (–0.02%) on November 21 as equities rebounded and volatility pulled back. Most major currencies saw mild moves, with USD/JPY notably weaker and commodity FX firmer on the day.
EUR/USD: 1.15105 (–0.15%) — euro edged lower in muted trade.
AUD/USD: 0.64550 (+0.22%) — Aussie strengthened alongside commodities.
GBP/USD: 1.30958 (+0.19%) — sterling firmed on improving risk tone.
NZD/USD: 0.56130 (+0.53%) — kiwi outperformed G7 FX.
USD/CAD: 1.40119 (+0.04%) — slight USD uptick despite softer DXY.
USD/JPY: 156.328 (–0.70%) — yen strengthened sharply as yields eased.
Analysis:
FX markets showed a clear risk-on tilt: antipodeans rallied, GBP firmed, and JPY strengthened meaningfully. The small decline in DXY reflected broad USD softness, driven by easing yields and improved market sentiment.
Metals
Metals faced modest pressure as investors rotated into equities. Gold retreated while silver also pulled back.
Gold: US$ 4,064.27/oz (–0.29%) — softened as risk appetite recovered.
Silver: US$ 49.9890/oz (–1.29%) — deeper correction amid industrial weakness.
Analysis:
The metals complex traded lower as investors reduced defensive allocations. Silver underperformed gold, consistent with risk rotation and weaker industrial sentiment.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Equities rebounded strongly following the previous session’s steep declines. U.S. indices posted broad gains, led by tech and large-cap growth.
S&P 500: 6,602.58 (+0.98%) — strong rebound with broad sector participation.
Dow Jones (DJI): 46,245.41 (+1.08%) — snapped multi-day losing streak.
Nasdaq 100: 24,239.57 (+0.77%) — tech regained momentum.
FTSE 100: ~9,580 (+0.4%) — supported by energy and banks.
Nikkei 225: ~49,120 (+0.3%) — modest gains on improved sentiment.
VIX: 23.43 (–11.32%) — sharp pullback in volatility.
Analysis:
Markets shifted decisively back into risk assets. The drop in VIX signaled normalization after the earlier spike, and tech regained leadership. The rebound was broad and driven by investor repositioning rather than a specific catalyst.
Crypto Markets (23.11.2025)
Crypto traded mixed: BTC showed mild gains while ETH fell sharply.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): US$ 84,931 (+0.30%) — stabilized after prior heavy selling.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): US$ 2,773.30 (–1.17%) — continued to lag BTC as altcoins faced pressure.
Analysis:
Crypto exhibited divergence: BTC attracted dip-buying, while ETH and broader alts struggled. This pattern suggests selective risk-taking with preference for BTC as the defensive asset within crypto.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
