Hurry, US House of Representatives, time is ticking…
Data
– Global equities extended gains as the U.S. shutdown resolution boosted confidence. The MSCI World +0.26 %, the Dow Jones +0.68 % (record close), while the Nasdaq −0.26 % as investors rotated out of stretched tech valuations.
– U.S. Treasury yields fell on renewed expectations of December Fed easing: the 10-year yield dropped to 4.065 % (−4.5 bps) and the 30-year to 4.6608 %, partly reversing the prior day’s spike.
– Gold climbed sharply +2 % to US$ 4 209 / oz, its highest since late October, supported by a softer U.S. dollar, weak private-payroll data, and growing conviction that the Fed will cut rates again this year.
– Dollar mixed: the USD weakened modestly against the euro but strengthened against the yen, which fell to a nine-month low (~¥154.7 / USD) as risk-on sentiment deepened.
– A Reuters poll showed ~80 % of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in December, citing signs of a weakening U.S. labour market and data gaps caused by the shutdown.
– The White House warned that key U.S. economic reports for October — including jobs and inflation — “might never be released” due to the prolonged shutdown, complicating both market forecasting and policy assessment.
– Asia opened stronger: Nikkei 225 +0.3 %, KOSPI +0.6 %, Hang Seng +1.0 %, benefiting from improved global risk appetite and expectations of renewed U.S. demand.
– European equities remained firm: the STOXX 600 +0.7 %, supported by banks and industrials as rate-cut expectations firmed across the euro zone.
– U.S. House committee report accused China of manipulating global critical-minerals markets, recommending strengthened U.S. price-monitoring powers and expanding strategic stockpiles.
– Airline and transportation stocks rallied, boosting the Dow Jones Transportation Average +0.8 %, on expectations that a government reopening would normalize travel-data demand and lighten regulatory bottlenecks.
– Despite the optimism, analysts highlighted that the “economic fog” persists, as missing macro data, tech-sector fragility, and delayed policy signals keep markets vulnerable to abrupt re-pricing.
Companies.
+) European equities continued their upward momentum, with the STOXX 600 +0.58%, reaching fresh highs as investors priced in a likely resolution to the U.S. government shutdown and digested a strong set of corporate earnings across financials and industrials.
+) In the U.S., the Dow Jones notched another record high (~48,254), driven by rotation into financials and industrials, while tech performance remained mixed.
+) Asian markets traded cautiously: while Japan and Australia saw modest gains, tech-heavy segments underperformed as the Magnificent 7 Index fell ~1.2%, reflecting continued skepticism around AI valuations.
+) U.S. Treasury yields hovered near 4.12% ahead of a major 10-year auction, while markets assigned a ~66% probability to a Fed rate cut in December, according to futures pricing.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at ~99.6, while USD/JPY approached 155, heightening intervention risk from Japanese authorities.
+) Gold prices rose above US$ 4,100/oz, supported by haven flows and limited U.S. economic data due to the ongoing federal shutdown.
+) Oil markets were mixed**, with supply concerns offset by improved global risk sentiment; Brent crude traded in the US$ 63–64/bbl range.
+) Market breadth improved slightly as financials and cyclicals showed stronger participation compared with recent tech-led gains.
+) With the U.S. macro-data blackout continuing, markets traded heavily on earnings guidance, central-bank commentary, and fiscal developments rather than hard economic prints.
+) Investors turned focus to a heavy earnings slate, particularly in technology, industrials, mining, and aerospace (Cisco, TransDigm, On Holding, Pan American Silver, etc.).
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| Cisco Systems (CSCO) | Delivered strong Q1 FY26 results, driven by cloud networking and AI-infrastructure demand. | Revenue: US$ 14.9 bn (+8% YoY) • GAAP EPS: US$ 0.72 (+6% YoY) • Non-GAAP EPS: US$ 1.00 • AI orders: US$ 1.3 bn • Q2 revenue guide: US$ 15.0–15.2 bn |
| TransDigm Group (TDG) | Aerospace & defense supplier posted robust demand for aftermarket parts; results exceeded pre-market expectations. | EPS: US$ 9.61 (est.) • Outperformance driven by defense contracts & commercial aviation recovery |
| On Holding AG (ONON) | Swiss athletic-wear firm expected strong North American and Asian momentum; options implied a ~10% earnings-day move. | Key watchpoints: Supply-chain costs, forward sales growth, DTC expansion |
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) | Higher silver prices supported margins; earnings expected to rise ~53% YoY. | Est. EPS: US$ 0.49 • Implied volatility: ~5.8% |
| FLUT (Flutter Entertainment) | Posted steady online gaming growth, with U.S. FanDuel segment outperforming peers. | Revenue: US$ 3.3 bn (+12% YoY) • EPS: US$ 1.28 |
| Celcuity Inc. (CELC) | Biotech firm reported higher R&D costs ahead of pivotal trials but maintained FY guidance. | Net Loss: US$ 32.8 m • Phase 2 oncology data expected next quarter |
General
European equities hit record highs as financials outperform and U.S. shutdown relief boosts sentiment
European stock markets climbed to fresh record levels, with the STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 both reaching new all-time highs. Financials and industrials led sector gains, supported by improved risk appetite following progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown. Investors also responded positively to strong corporate earnings across major European banks.
Asian markets record >USD 10 billion in foreign outflows as AI optimism cools
Asian equities faced pressure, posting roughly USD 10.18 billion in foreign outflows during early November. South Korea and Taiwan accounted for the bulk of withdrawals as investors reassessed the durability of the recent AI-driven rally. Analysts noted that profit-taking and global risk rotation explain the divergence between strong Western benchmarks and weakening Asian flows.
Oil trades flat ahead of U.S. reopening timeline as supply risks compete with weak demand
Brent crude hovered near USD 65.1 per barrel, showing limited movement as the market weighed expectations of stronger U.S. fuel demand once government operations fully resume against persistent concerns of oversupply into early 2026. Traders cited sanctions on Russia and Middle East geopolitical risks as key stabilizers preventing deeper declines.
U.S. House report accuses China of manipulating critical-minerals markets
A bipartisan committee in the U.S. House of Representatives released a report alleging that China has interfered with global pricing and supply of critical minerals, leveraging its dominance in refining and export controls. The report raised renewed concerns over supply-chain security, especially for EVs, semiconductors, and defense industries.
Global fund-flow signals weaken despite record index highs
Despite headline-level strength across European and U.S. equities, fund-flow data showed a narrowing risk appetite, with outflows in Asia and selective inflows into only a few U.S. mega-cap sectors. Strategists highlighted the growing disconnect between index performance and underlying investor positioning.
Economists expect only one more Fed cut in December as easing cycle peaks
A Reuters poll showed 80% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in December—likely the final move of the year. With economic data flow set to resume post-shutdown, analysts cautioned that the Fed may remain conservative amid mixed labor-market signals and lingering inflation uncertainty.
Upcoming News
Global markets enter Thursday digesting the aftermath of the U.S. CPI release, which confirmed the ongoing disinflation trend but stopped short of a decisive slowdown. Headline inflation moderated as expected, while core prices showed resilience in key service components — enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about accelerating its easing cycle. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its current rate trajectory through early 2026 while continuing to emphasize data dependency. U.S. Treasury yields initially dipped but later stabilized, while the dollar recovered modestly on profit-taking after recent losses.
In Europe, the macro focus shifts to the Eurozone’s September industrial production and Germany’s final inflation revisions, which will help refine the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB). While inflation continues to ease, growth remains fragile, leaving policymakers under pressure to balance disinflation against weakening business sentiment. The Bank of England, meanwhile, faces renewed scrutiny following a weaker-than-expected U.K. GDP reading on Wednesday, which has strengthened bets for a Q1 2026 rate cut. Sterling remains range-bound, supported by improved global risk tone but capped by domestic growth concerns.
Across the Asia-Pacific region, trading is mixed as investors monitor China’s credit and lending data for signs of a rebound in domestic demand. The Japanese yen remains steady after consolidating recent gains, while the Australian dollar continues to trade defensively following dovish signals from the RBA earlier in the week. Regional equity markets are broadly supported by easing U.S. yields and optimism over U.S.–China trade progress, though volatility may rise if Chinese credit figures disappoint.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Industrial Production (Sep) | 🔴 High — indicator of manufacturing recovery prospects |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Final Inflation Data (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — confirmation of disinflation momentum |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | BoE Officials’ Remarks | 🔴 High — guidance on 2026 rate-cut expectations |
| 🇨🇳 China | Aggregate Financing & New Loans (Oct) | 🔴 High — measures strength of credit demand, key for recovery tone |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | PPI (Oct) | 🟠 Medium — early indicator for corporate inflation pressure |
| 🇺🇸 United States | Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) | 🟠 Medium — labour-trend check post-CPI |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Housing Starts (Oct) | 🟡 Low–Medium — construction activity read-through for growth |
| 🌍 Global | ECB & Fed Officials Speeches | 🔴 High — tone may reinforce coordinated easing outlook |
G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) steadied around 99.35, pausing after a week of declines as traders positioned ahead of key U.S. CPI data. The euro and pound held firm, while the yen weakened slightly amid thin liquidity.
- EUR/USD: 1583 (+0.2%) — firmed as Treasury yields eased and risk sentiment improved.
- GBP/USD: 3195 (+0.1%) — sterling maintained momentum on stable gilt yields.
- USD/JPY: 80 (+0.4%) — yen softened after BoJ officials reaffirmed accommodative policy guidance.
- AUD/USD: 6534 (+0.2%) — Aussie supported by firmer commodities and upbeat China data.
- USD/CAD: 4005 (–0.1%) — loonie edged higher as crude stayed near $82/bbl.
Analysis:
The dollar consolidated with a mild downward bias. Market focus remains on inflation data that could shape December rate-cut expectations. Commodity-linked FX held steady on risk appetite, while JPY underperformed due to dovish BoJ rhetoric.
Metals
Precious metals eased slightly on profit-taking after recent rallies, while base metals traded sideways.
- Gold: US$ 4,107/oz (–0.5%) — pulled back from multi-week highs.
- Silver: US$ 51.05/oz (–0.4%) — tracked gold lower but remains elevated.
- Copper: US$ 10,875/ton (+0.1%) — held firm on Chinese stimulus optimism.
Analysis:
Gold’s dip reflected profit-taking, not trend reversal. Falling real yields continue to support long-term upside. Silver’s stability near $51 underscores strong ETF and industrial demand.
Global Equities (NQ / S&P 500 / DJ / Nikkei 225 / FTSE 100)
Global equities extended gains led by cyclical sectors, while tech lagged amid valuation concerns.
- Dow Jones: 48,254.82 (+0.68%) — first-ever close above 48,000, driven by banks and industrials.
- S&P 500: 6,850.70 (+0.06%) — modest gains on defensive rotation.
- Nasdaq 100: 22,420.40 (–0.26%) — tech underperformed on profit-taking.
- Nikkei 225: 49,385 (+0.5%) — exporters gained on steady yen.
- FTSE 100: 9,635 (+0.3%) — supported by energy and financial stocks.
Analysis:
Cyclical rotation dominated as falling yields bolstered industrials and financials. The Dow’s record close signaled renewed confidence in rate-sensitive sectors. Tech stocks stayed soft, reflecting stretched valuations and cautious positioning before CPI.
Crypto Markets
Digital assets slipped slightly, following risk-sensitive tech stocks lower.
- Bitcoin (BTC): US$ 104,200 (–1.2%) — eased after failing to sustain above $105 k.
- Ethereum (ETH): US$ 3,470 (–1.0%) — mirrored BTC’s retracement amid lighter volumes.
- Altcoins: mixed (–1% to +0.5%); total crypto market cap at US$ 3.50 trillion (–0.4%).
Analysis:
Crypto mirrored equity market behavior, consolidating gains from earlier in the week. The sector remains range-bound, awaiting fresh catalysts such as ETF flows or regulatory updates.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
