FOMC in 3 days.
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war as it will update per seconds, any volatility from the next morning is getting the charts among the highest levels. Stay in the highest cautious.
Data:
- 🟦 Global Rates | Sovereign yields remain elevated amid persistent inflation risk
Global bond markets traded mixed as investors balanced rising energy prices with signs of slowing growth.
United States (Treasuries): 2Y ~3.66–3.70%, 5Y ~3.88–3.92%, 10Y ~4.26–4.30%, 30Y ~4.90–4.95%.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.70–4.74%.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.90–2.94%.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.55–3.60%.
Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.72–3.80%.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.45–3.50%.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.90–4.97%, 2Y ~4.40–4.45%.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.20–2.24%.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.80–1.84%.
Bond markets remain sensitive to energy-driven inflation expectations and uncertainty over central bank policy paths. - 🟥 U.S. Equities | Stocks retreat as oil volatility weighs on risk sentiment
Wall Street closed lower as investors reacted to elevated crude prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Nasdaq Composite: ~21,980 (-0.6%)
S&P 500 (US500): ~6,590 (-0.5%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~46,360 (-0.3%)
Airline, transport, and consumer sectors underperformed as higher fuel costs raised concerns about corporate margins. - 🟥 Europe Equities | Regional markets under pressure from energy shock
European equities declined amid concerns that high oil prices could further weaken economic growth in the region.
Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,610 (-0.5%)
DAX (GER40): ~23,000 (-0.7%)
CAC 40: ~7,800 (-0.6%)
Energy and defense stocks were among the few sectors outperforming. - 🟥 Asia Equities | Japanese market declines as energy costs rise
Asian equities weakened following the global risk-off tone and concerns over rising fuel import costs.
Nikkei 225: ~53,800 (-0.7%)
Exporters and transport-related companies led declines. - 🟥 Macro “Red News” | Key economic releases from the prior session
S. Producer Price Index (PPI): Stronger-than-expected increase, reinforcing inflation concerns.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Slight weekly decline, indicating a still-tight labor market.
China CPI (Feb): +1.3% y/y, up from 0.2% prior.
China PPI (Feb): -0.9% y/y, improving from -1.4% prior.
Japan Current Account (Jan): ~¥0.94T surplus.
Markets remain focused on the weak U.S. February payrolls (-92k) reported earlier in the week. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Oil markets remain the dominant driver of global risk sentiment
Crude prices stayed elevated near $100 per barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and weighing on equity markets. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Strait of Hormuz risks continue to threaten energy supply
Investors remain focused on potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil trade. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Strategic petroleum reserve releases under discussion
Major economies are considering coordinated reserve releases to stabilize global energy markets if supply disruptions escalate. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Energy shock revives global stagflation fears
Economists warn that sustained high oil prices could push inflation higher while slowing global economic growth. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Europe considered most vulnerable to energy price surge
Analysts highlight Europe’s dependence on imported energy as a major risk factor for regional economic performance. - 🟧 High-impact headline | Commodity volatility increases across global markets
Investors are rotating toward commodities and defensive assets as geopolitical uncertainty persists.
Companies.
+) Adobe shares fell sharply after the company issued soft forward guidance despite reporting quarterly results that beat analysts’ expectations, raising concerns about the pace of monetization of its generative-AI tools.
+) Nvidia remained one of the most actively traded stocks as investors continued positioning around the AI infrastructure cycle and sustained demand for data-center GPUs.
+) Tesla declined amid renewed concerns over global EV demand and pricing competition, particularly from Chinese automakers.
+) Apple traded lower following reports that smartphone shipments weakened in several Asian markets, highlighting softer consumer electronics demand.
+) Microsoft remained supported as enterprise adoption of AI features within Azure and Copilot services continued to expand.
+) Meta Platforms gained modestly as investors focused on improving advertising revenue trends and ongoing AI investments.
+) Alphabet traded mixed as investors evaluated its latest AI product announcements and competitive positioning against other large technology firms.
+) Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX attracted investor inflows as geopolitical tensions continued to support expectations of higher global defense spending.
+) Energy companies including Exxon Mobil and Chevron traded higher as crude oil prices held near recent highs amid supply risks.
+) Coinbase moved in line with cryptocurrency markets as Bitcoin remained volatile but continued to attract strong institutional interest.
+) Cybersecurity firms including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks stayed in focus as enterprises increased spending on cloud-security platforms.
+) Analysts continued to highlight the AI semiconductor supply chain—including chipmakers, cloud providers, and networking firms—as one of the most important structural themes driving equity markets.
General
PART 1 — Market & Macro Morning Summary (13.03.2026)
Global markets entered the session with continued geopolitical sensitivity but slightly improved risk sentiment as investors assessed recent stabilization in energy prices following policy interventions and emergency supply measures. While the Middle East conflict continues to dominate macro narratives, markets are increasingly evaluating whether the energy shock will evolve into a prolonged supply disruption or remain a temporary geopolitical premium.
Equities:
Global equity markets traded with mixed performance as investors balanced geopolitical risks with stabilization in commodity prices. Energy producers and defense companies continued to outperform broader indices, while transport, airlines, and industrial exporters remained vulnerable to higher fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions.
Rates & Inflation Expectations:
Bond markets remained volatile as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices. Although oil prices have moderated slightly from recent peaks, analysts warn that sustained prices near $100 per barrel could delay global disinflation and complicate expectations for monetary easing later in the year.
FX & Safe Havens:
The U.S. dollar remained supported by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty, while gold prices held firm as investors maintained hedging positions against potential escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Macro Theme:
Markets remain in a geopolitical energy-risk environment, with developments around Middle East security and global oil supply routes continuing to influence cross-asset pricing.
PART 2 — Commodities, FX & Sector Flows
Oil Market Stabilization:
Oil prices remained elevated but stabilized following emergency supply measures and coordinated strategic reserve releases. Brent crude traded around $95–$100 per barrel, while WTI remained near $90–$95, reflecting a persistent geopolitical risk premium.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Releases:
Energy agencies and major economies have begun releasing strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize global markets and offset the loss of supply caused by disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The coordinated intervention aims to prevent a prolonged energy shock from destabilizing global economic conditions.
Shipping & Logistics:
Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply, remain partially disrupted due to security concerns and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Tanker traffic has resumed cautiously in limited volumes but remains well below normal levels.
Natural Gas:
Gas markets remain volatile as uncertainty surrounding LNG shipments from the Gulf persists, particularly given the region’s critical role in global gas exports.
Sector Rotation:
- Energy: Supported by elevated oil prices and supply disruption risk
- Defense: Benefiting from sustained geopolitical tensions
- Airlines & Logistics: Under pressure due to fuel cost volatility
- Industrials: Impacted by supply-chain disruptions and freight uncertainty
Upcoming News
Markets open the week in a post-data consolidation phase, as investors reassess positioning following last week’s U.S. inflation and retail sales cycle. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but selective, with FX and rates trading primarily on yield differentials and early-week sentiment rather than heavy macro catalysts. Liquidity conditions are stable, though conviction remains moderate ahead of key central bank meetings and macro releases later in the week.
In the United States, the economic calendar is relatively light, positioning Monday as a rebalancing and positioning session after last week’s CPI, PPI, and consumption data. Investors will continue to evaluate whether the recent data confirms a gradual cooling in inflation without significantly weakening demand. Treasury yields and the USD are therefore likely to trade directionally based on cross-asset flows and forward expectations rather than fresh domestic data.
Across Europe, attention turns to regional trade and industrial indicators, which provide incremental confirmation of early-Q1 activity momentum in the Eurozone. EUR price action remains primarily influenced by U.S. yield movements and global risk sentiment rather than domestic catalysts. In the Asia–Pacific region, China’s activity indicators and Japan’s industrial data continue to shape regional risk appetite and commodity flows. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that macro interpretation and positioning adjustments dominate market dynamics at the start of the week.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 09:00 | 🔴 Red News | China | Industrial Production (y/y) | Growth momentum; commodities & CNH sensitivity |
| 09:00 | 🔴 Red News | China | Retail Sales (y/y) | Domestic demand signal |
| 16:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | Trade Balance | External demand and EUR sentiment |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Start-of-week positioning / policy headlines | May influence FX and rates direction |
Snapshot (16.3.2026)
🛢 Oil | Consolidation Above $100
- WTI Crude 98.03 (-1.28%)
- Brent Crude 103.34 (-0.61%)
Oil prices eased slightly after the recent rally but remained elevated, with Brent holding above the $100 level. Markets continue to price in supply risks and geopolitical uncertainty.
🟢 Dollar Above 100 | DXY 100.27 (-0.21%)
The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower but remained above the key 100 threshold, reflecting sustained safe-haven demand amid volatile global markets.
🔄 G7 FX | USD Rally Pauses
- EUR/USD 1.1445 (+0.26%)
- GBP/USD 1.3255 (+0.31%)
- USD/JPY 159.48 (-0.14%)
- USD/CHF 0.7896 (-0.23%)
Major currencies recovered modestly against the dollar as the recent USD rally paused. However, USD/JPY remained elevated near the 160 level.
🪙 Crypto | Uptrend Continues
- BTC 72,910 (+0.11%)
- ETH 2,182 (+0.20%)
- SOL 92.79 (+0.17%)
Crypto markets extended their upward momentum, with Bitcoin holding above 72k while altcoins continued to show steady gains.
🥇 Metals | Mixed Moves
- Gold 5,018 (+0.03%)
- Silver 81.11 (+0.65%)
Precious metals traded mixed, with silver outperforming slightly while gold remained broadly stable near the 5,000 level.
📊 Equities | Risk Sentiment Improves
- S&P 500 6,664.73 (+0.63%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,732.95 (+0.68%)
- Dow Jones 46,782.45 (+0.60%)
- VIX 26.12 (-1.17%)
Equity markets rebounded moderately after recent declines, while volatility eased slightly though remaining elevated above 26, indicating ongoing uncertainty in global markets.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
