War ended yet? We do not know!
Note: Please get yourself updated with the current status of this war as it will update per seconds, any volatility from the next morning is getting the charts among the highest levels. Stay in the highest cautious.
Data:
- [🟦 Global Rates | Core sovereign yields remain elevated]
Global bond markets stayed volatile as markets balanced weaker growth signals with oil-driven inflation risk.
United States (Treasuries): 2Y ~3.55%, 5Y ~3.72%, 10Y ~4.10–4.13%, 30Y ~4.75–4.78%.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.63–4.66%.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.83–2.86%.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.49–3.52%.
Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.60–3.65%.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.35–3.40%.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.80–4.88%, 2Y ~4.30–4.36%.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.17–2.20%.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.78–1.82%.
Rate markets remain sensitive to energy-driven inflation and the implications for global monetary policy. - [🟩 U.S. Equities | Late-session recovery stabilizes markets]
Wall Street finished broadly higher after an early selloff as crude prices retreated from extreme highs and risk appetite partially recovered.
Nasdaq Composite: ~22,696 (+1.4%)
S&P 500 (US500): ~6,796 (+0.8%)
Dow Jones: ~47,741 (+0.5%)
Technology and growth sectors led the rebound following heavy losses earlier in the week. - [🟥 Europe Equities | Energy exposure weighs on markets]
European equities remained under pressure as investors priced the inflationary impact of higher energy costs.
Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,690 (-0.6%)
DAX (GER40): ~23,410 (-0.8%)
CAC 40: ~7,915 (-1.0%)
Energy stocks outperformed while autos, travel, and consumer sectors lagged. - [🟥 Japan Equities | Oil shock hits import-dependent markets]
Japan continued to underperform regional peers amid higher fuel costs and rising domestic yields.
Nikkei 225: ~52,728 (-5.2%)
Exporters and financials led the decline as energy prices surged earlier in the week. - [🟥 Macro “Red News” | Key economic releases from prior session]
China CPI (Feb): +1.3% y/y (vs 2% prior, above expectations).
China PPI (Feb): -0.9% y/y (improving from -1.4% prior).
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Mar): -3.1 (down sharply from 4.2 prior).
Japan Current Account (Jan): ~¥941.6bn surplus.
Carry-over macro shock: U.S. February payrolls -92k, unemployment 4.4%, wages 3.8% y/y — continuing to shape global risk sentiment.
Companies.
+) Oracle declined after reporting quarterly results that missed investor expectations on cloud-infrastructure growth, despite strong demand for AI-related database services.
+) Adobe moved higher ahead of its upcoming earnings release as investors expect continued momentum from generative-AI tools integrated into its Creative Cloud and Acrobat platforms.
+) Nvidia remained a key driver of semiconductor sentiment as hyperscale cloud providers continued expanding spending on AI data-center accelerators.
+) Broadcom traded firmly after reiterating strong demand outlook for custom AI chips used by large technology companies.
+) Tesla remained volatile as investors debated EV demand outlook and pricing competition across global markets.
+) Palantir Technologies gained as government and enterprise adoption of AI-driven analytics platforms continued to expand.
+) Lockheed Martin advanced alongside broader defense stocks as geopolitical tensions supported expectations of higher global military spending.
+) RTX Corporation traded higher as investors focused on strong order backlogs in missile-defense systems and aerospace components.
+) ExxonMobil and Chevron moved higher following strength in crude oil prices and continued robust free-cash-flow generation.
+) Boeing remained volatile as investors monitored aircraft production ramp-ups and regulatory progress on key commercial jet programs.
General
PART 1 — Market & Macro Morning Summary (09.03.2026)
Global markets began the session with persistent geopolitical volatility and elevated energy prices as the conflict between the United States and Iran continued to dominate macro sentiment. Investors remain focused on the implications of prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy supply and shipping routes, which could translate into higher inflation and slower global growth.
Equities:
Global equities traded cautiously with continued defensive positioning. Energy and defense stocks remained supported by higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions, while airlines, transport companies, and export-oriented industries remained under pressure due to rising fuel costs and supply-chain uncertainty.
Rates & Inflation Expectations:
Bond markets reflected the tension between safe-haven demand and rising inflation expectations linked to energy prices. Analysts note that sustained oil prices near or above $100 per barrel could complicate global disinflation and potentially delay expected monetary easing later this year.
FX & Safe Havens:
The U.S. dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand and strong liquidity preference during periods of geopolitical stress. Gold continued to attract hedging flows as investors sought protection against escalating conflict and energy-driven inflation.
Macro Theme:
Markets remain dominated by a geopolitical energy-shock environment, where developments in the Middle East and disruptions to global oil supply routes continue to drive cross-asset volatility.
PART 2 — Commodities, FX & Sector Flows
Oil Market Volatility:
Oil prices remained elevated following the sharp rally triggered by supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude traded around $95–$100 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $90–$95, reflecting the continued geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade normally passes, remains partially disrupted as tanker operators avoid the region due to security risks and rising insurance costs.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Response:
In response to rising oil prices and supply disruptions, G7 governments confirmed discussions around coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves aimed at stabilizing global energy markets. The move is intended to offset temporary supply shortages if disruptions in Gulf shipping persist.
Shipping & Freight Markets:
Freight markets remain strained as tanker traffic through the Gulf slows dramatically. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region have surged, discouraging shipping companies from entering the area.
Natural Gas:
Gas markets remain volatile amid concerns over LNG supply disruptions and the vulnerability of Gulf export infrastructure.
Sector Rotation:
- Energy: Supported by supply disruptions and higher oil prices
- Defense: Benefiting from geopolitical tensions
- Airlines & Logistics: Under pressure due to fuel costs and rerouted flights
- Global Industrials: Impacted by shipping delays and trade disruptions
Upcoming News
Markets head into Wednesday with a high-conviction, inflation-led setup, as U.S. CPI becomes the central macro catalyst shaping near-term direction across FX, rates, and equities. Overall market sense is cautious but highly reactive, with investors tightening positioning following the recent payrolls report and ahead of today’s inflation print. Volatility is expected to concentrate sharply around the CPI release window, particularly in USD pairs, front-end Treasury yields, gold, and equity index futures, as markets reassess the pace of disinflation and the implications for Fed policy.
In the United States, market attention focuses primarily on Core CPI, especially the services and shelter components that continue to drive underlying inflation dynamics. A downside surprise in core inflation—particularly within services—would reinforce confidence that disinflation remains intact, supporting Treasuries and potentially weighing on the USD. Conversely, persistent strength in services inflation or shelter costs could trigger a repricing higher in yields and lend the dollar short-term support, as markets reassess expectations for policy easing later in the year.
Across Europe, the macro calendar is relatively light, leaving EUR trading largely in response to U.S. yield movements and global risk sentiment following the CPI outcome. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s machinery and investment indicators provide incremental insight into capital expenditure trends relevant to the Bank of Japan’s normalization debate. However, regional FX movements are expected to remain primarily influenced by U.S. rate dynamics. Corporate catalysts remain limited, ensuring that today’s session remains overwhelmingly macro-driven.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Core Machinery Orders (m/m) | Capex signal; JPY growth sensitivity |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | CPI (m/m, y/y) | Primary inflation catalyst; USD, rates, equities |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Core CPI (m/m, y/y) | Underlying inflation trend; Fed policy implications |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | CPI-driven volatility / policy commentary | May dominate intraday price action |
Snapshot (09.3.2026)
🛢 Oil | Volatility After Spike
- WTI Crude 89.05 (+4.68%)
- Brent Crude 89.77 (-3.62%)
Oil markets remained highly volatile following the prior session’s surge. WTI rebounded toward $89 while Brent corrected lower, reflecting unstable positioning as traders reassess supply risks and geopolitical developments.
🟢 Dollar Stable | DXY 98.80 (+0.07%)
The U.S. Dollar Index held steady near 98.8 after the sharp rally earlier in the week. The dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as markets digest heightened energy and geopolitical uncertainty.
🔄 G7 FX | Limited Moves
- EUR/USD 1.1626 (-0.08%)
- GBP/USD 1.3432 (-0.02%)
- USD/JPY 157.83 (+0.11%)
- USD/CHF 0.7742 (+0.02%)
Major FX pairs traded within narrow ranges. USD/JPY remained firm above 157 while EUR continued to face mild pressure amid the stronger dollar backdrop.
🪙 Crypto | Strong Rebound
- BTC 68,556 (+3.91%)
- ETH 2,000 (+3.25%)
- SOL 85.41 (+4.01%)
Crypto markets bounced sharply after the recent selloff, with Bitcoin recovering above 68k and altcoins leading the rebound as risk appetite partially returned.
🥇 Metals | Gradual Recovery
- Gold 5,143 (+0.08%)
- Silver 87.53 (+0.63%)
Precious metals edged higher as investors maintained selective hedging despite the stronger dollar environment.
📊 Equities | Cautious Tone
- S&P 500 6,776.25 (-0.23%)
- Euro Stoxx 50 5,769.69 (-0.32%)
- Dow Jones 47,610.45 (-0.24%)
- VIX 24.12 (+1.15%)
Equity markets remained under pressure following the oil shock. Volatility stayed elevated with the VIX above 24, signaling persistent caution among investors.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
