Non-farm Incoming!
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- S. Treasuries (Fed H.15, Jan 08): 2Y 3.47% | 10Y 4.15% | 30Y 4.82% — long-end eased slightly into key U.S. payroll risk, while the front-end stayed anchored.
- Japan (10Y JGB, Jan 08): 076% — still near multi-decade highs despite a sharp daily pullback, keeping global duration and FX carry trades sensitive to Japan rates.
- Australia (10Y, Jan 08): 660% — yields remained elevated, sustaining a high-carry backdrop for AUD.
- United Kingdom (10Y Gilt, latest): ~4.48% — broadly range-bound after an early-year jump in long-end volatility.
- Germany (10Y Bund, latest): ~2.90% — steady at the top end of recent ranges.
- Canada (10Y, Jan 07 indication): ~3.39% — yields softened as risk sentiment cooled and oil-linked FX weakened.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
- United States (Jan 08 close): S&P 500 ~6,921 (+0.0%) | Dow ~49,266 (+0.6%) | Nasdaq ~23,480 (–0.4%) — rotation out of megacap tech into defense/industrials drove strong internal dispersion.
- Japan (Nikkei 225, Asia session): risk-off tone persisted in regional trading as rate and geopolitical headlines dominated.
- France (CAC 40, Jan 08): +0.12% (marginally higher; mixed tape under sector rotation).
- Germany (DAX, Jan 08): +0.02% to 25,127 — paused after a record run.
- Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50 futures, Jan 08): –0.35% to ~5,919 — softer risk appetite into U.S. data.
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- Defense stocks surged on Trump’s military-spend push: Reuters highlighted a proposed $1.5T U.S. military budget for 2027 (vs $901B approved for 2026), sending major contractors sharply higher and lifting the aerospace & defense complex.
- Tech pressure weighed on Nasdaq: large-cap tech names fell roughly 1–2% in a broad sector drawdown; rotation dominated index-level moves.
- Oil and geopolitics stayed the macro swing factor: WTI ~$56.29/bbl | Brent ~$60.29/bbl as markets reassessed Venezuelan supply policy and enforcement risk around oil revenues and sanctions.
- Canada FX under pressure on risk-off + oil dynamics: USD/CAD traded around 3865 (CAD near a one-month low) as investors reduced exposure to commodity-linked currencies amid geopolitics and oil supply headlines.
- China–Japan trade friction re-emerged: investors reacted to a China anti-dumping probe into chemicals used in chipmaking, adding pressure to related Japan-linked exposures.
- Europe’s rally cooled: STOXX 600 eased ~0.3% intraday as disappointing retail signals and weaker commodities interrupted the strong start to 2026.
Companies.
+) U.S. equities ended mixed: Dow +0.55% (49,266.11), S&P 500 +0.01% (6,921.45), while Nasdaq -0.44% (23,480.02), reflecting a rotation away from megacap tech into select cyclicals/defense.
+) Market internals were constructive despite the flat headline: NYSE advancers beat decliners roughly ~2.4:1, with S&P 500 new highs (43) outpacing new lows (13).
+) Tech leadership cooled: the S&P tech complex notably underperformed, reinforcing a “selective risk-on” tape rather than broad-based momentum.
+) Defense and aerospace names surged after renewed market focus on forward U.S. defense-budget ambitions; Kratos and large primes outperformed sharply, helping offset tech weakness.
+) AI/semi sentiment softened: Nvidia and other heavyweight semis weighed on Nasdaq performance into the close.
+) Memory-storage names were hit hard (sharp declines across major storage suppliers), adding to the tech drag and widening dispersion inside semis.
+) Mega-cap leadership remained fragile: Apple eased, while Alphabet held up better on positioning/relative-strength narratives.
+) Ford stood out on the upside after an analyst upgrade, adding to the “old economy / value tilt” undertone.
+) Macro data was not the main driver, but market participants still tracked labor-market indicators for near-term policy-path implications.
+) In Europe, the tone was soft-to-mixed with risk appetite constrained; STOXX Europe 600 traded lower, mirroring the tech-led caution in the U.S.
+) In Asia, Japan underperformed: Nikkei 225 -1.63%, reinforcing that “U.S. rotation” did not translate cleanly into Asia risk sentiment.
+) Neogen (NEOG) +31.57% after results/guidance catalysts, becoming one of the most traded single names of the day.
+) MoonLake (MLTX) +27% after FDA feedback improved visibility on a regulatory pathway for its HS program, sparking aggressive biotech inflows.
+) Babcock & Wilcox (BW) +28.89% after announcing a Siemens Energy partnership tied to large-scale power delivery for an AI data-center project (AI power infrastructure theme).
+) Enliven (ELVN) +50.29% after a major positive catalyst tied to clinical-data / pipeline updates, driving a sharp repricing higher.
+) High-beta small/midcaps continued to show outsized moves (both directions), with liquidity clustering into “headline-driven” names.
+) On the downside, biotech volatility was extreme: Immuneering (IMRX) -43.02% after new pancreatic-cancer survival data headlines triggered a sharp risk-off reaction.
+) CorMedix (CRMD) -32.77% after issuing FY2026 revenue guidance materially below what the Street had been discounting, prompting swift de-risking across holders.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | Close | % Chg | Volume | Key driver / news hook |
| flyExclusive | FLYX | $335.56M | 4.37 | +130.25% | 114.01M | Speculative momentum tied to Starlink connectivity headline / aviation-tech angle. |
| Creative Global Technology | CGTL | $42.20M | 12.38 | +118.10% | 25.57M | High-beta microcap move; limited major-wire headline (appears flow-driven). |
| Pineapple Financial | PAPL | $21.32M | 2.05 | +56.64% | 17.67M | Partnership / product-expansion related company update (insurance offering tie-in). |
| Enliven Therapeutics | ELVN | $1.87B | 47.00 | +50.29% | 9.48M | Positive early leukemia data (ASCO-related mention) lifted biotech sentiment in the name. |
| AgEagle Aerial Systems | UAVS | $273.40M | 11.09 | +45.00% | 42.42M | “Drone basket” strength amid defense procurement narrative / security theme bid. |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | Close | % Chg | Volume | Key driver / news hook |
| Immuneering | IMRX | $305.42M | 1.38 | -43.22% | 23.53M | Clinical headline: despite survival-data messaging, the stock sold off sharply (high expectations / positioning unwind). |
| Mingteng International | MTEN | $4.14M | 9.46 | -43.15% | 132.17K | Microcap drawdown; no same-day major wire catalyst visible (likely liquidity/flow-driven). |
| China SXT Pharmaceuticals | SXTC | $145.04M | 4.50 | -37.50% | 202.10K | Company announced an AI insights initiative, but the stock sold off aggressively (sentiment/liquidity dominated). |
| Acrivon Therapeutics | ACRV | $60.90M | 1.63 | -34.58% | 34.68M | Stock fell after clinical update headlines despite company describing positive data (high volatility biotech tape). |
| CorMedix | CRMD | $591.70M | 9.89 | -32.77% | 17.26M | Company updates and preliminary results circulated; stock re-priced lower amid sharp biotech dispersion. |
General
Currency Overview trades with moderate volatility as markets reassess early-January positioning G10 FX saw slightly higher activity as investors adjusted initial 2026 allocations, with price action driven by relative policy expectations rather than a shift in risk sentiment. The U.S. dollar was mixed, reflecting a balance between easing expectations and intermittent defensive demand as markets continued to refine views on the global growth trajectory.
EUR holds firm as policy asymmetry with the Fed remains a key anchor The euro traded steadily as markets maintained the view that the ECB will proceed cautiously relative to the Fed over the medium term. With Eurozone data flow still light, EUR performance remained anchored to rate differentials and portfolio flows rather than renewed growth optimism.
GBP consolidates as global rate dynamics offset domestic uncertainty Sterling moved sideways as supportive global yield conditions balanced persistent concerns over the UK’s fragile growth outlook. In the absence of fresh BOE signals, GBP remained sensitive to global rates and broader FX sentiment rather than domestic catalysts.
USD stabilizes as markets reassess the pace of further easing The Dollar Index was broadly stable as investors tempered expectations for rapid follow-on Fed cuts. While financial conditions remain accommodative, the dollar continued to trade as a relative-value currency rather than a pure safe-haven.
JPY softens modestly as carry dynamics dominate low-volatility conditions The yen weakened slightly as stable U.S. yields and compressed volatility encouraged selective carry positioning. With no new signals from the BOJ, JPY price action remained closely tied to global rate movements.
Gold consolidates as defensive demand moderates amid calmer sentiment Gold prices traded in a narrow range as easing geopolitical concerns reduced near-term safe-haven demand. Contained real yields continued to provide underlying support, limiting downside pressure.
Oil remains supported as supply risks offset persistent demand uncertainty Brent and WTI held near recent levels as supply-side risks continued to provide a floor, even as markets remained cautious on the global demand outlook. Energy prices reflected a balanced assessment between geopolitical risk and slowing growth signals.
Equity Flow shows selective re-engagement led by quality exposure Equity flows pointed to cautious early-year re-risking, with investors favoring large-cap quality and defensive sectors. Broader participation remained limited, suggesting restraint rather than conviction in a strong growth rebound.
Geopolitical focus stays on energy-sensitive regions without escalation Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly in regions tied to energy supply, remained in focus but did not trigger material market repricing. Investors continued to treat these risks as tail events rather than base-case disruptions.
Corporate narratives emphasize cost discipline and cautious demand assumptions Company commentary continued to stress margin protection, controlled investment, and conservative demand outlooks for early 2026. Market reactions underscored a preference for earnings visibility and balance-sheet strength.
Upcoming News
Markets enter Friday with a high-conviction, event-risk posture, as U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) takes center stage and is set to define near-term direction across FX, rates, and equities. Overall market sense is cautious but opportunistic, with positioning tightened into the release and volatility expected to spike around the data window. With disinflation largely accepted, the quality of labour cooling—rather than headline job creation alone—will determine whether markets extend expectations for Fed easing later in 2026 or pause to reassess.
In the United States, the focus is squarely on NFP, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. Markets will prioritize wage growth and participation dynamics as indicators of residual inflation pressure. A combination of moderating payroll gains and softer earnings would likely weigh on the USD and support front-end Treasuries, while a wage-led upside surprise could trigger a sharp, albeit potentially short-lived, repricing in yields and the dollar. Secondary attention falls on consumer credit, offering incremental insight into household leverage and demand sustainability.
Across Europe, data risk is limited, leaving EUR largely reactive to U.S. yield moves and cross-currency flows. In the Asia–Pacific region, China’s CPI and PPI prints provide a parallel inflation narrative; persistent producer-price deflation alongside modest consumer inflation would reinforce the case for ongoing policy support, influencing CNH and broader risk sentiment into the weekend. Corporate catalysts remain light, keeping macro outcomes as the dominant driver.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | China | CPI (y/y) | Consumer inflation signal; CNH & Asia risk sentiment |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | China | PPI (y/y) | Producer-price deflation gauge; commodities & cyclicals |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Nonfarm Payrolls | Primary labour-market catalyst; USD, rates, equities |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Unemployment Rate | Labour slack indicator; Fed path implications |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) | Wage inflation; critical for policy expectations |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Consumer Credit | Household leverage; secondary demand signal |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | NFP-driven volatility / positioning into weekend | Can amplify moves post-release |
Snapshot – End 08.01.2026
G7 FX
- DXY: 98.844 (+0.12%)
- GBP/USD: 1.34356 (0.00%)
- EUR/USD: 1.16575 (−0.02%)
- USD/JPY: 156.897 (+0.04%)
- USD/CHF: 0.79906 (+0.04%)
- EUR/GBP: 0.86766 (+0.02%)
- USD/CAD: 1.38647 (−0.01%)
- AUD/USD: 0.66994 (0.00%)
- NZD/USD: 0.57500 (−0.03%)
Metals
- Gold: 4,474.600 (−0.07%)
- Silver: 76.6600 (−0.41%)
- Copper: 5.83076 (−0.02%)
Global Indices
- S&P 500: 6,927.72 (−0.10%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 5,928.73 (−0.10%)
- Dow Jones: 49,323.45 (−0.08%)
- VIX: 16.474 (0.00%)
- CAC 40: 8,243.48 (+0.12%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,507.10 (−0.57%)
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: 91,040 (−0.26%)
- ETH/USD: 3,104.6 (−1.92%)
- SOL/USD: 138.27 (+1.44%)
- OP/USD: 0.314 (−0.95%)
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
