Tough day for G7, seeking for NFP.
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- United States (Treasuries): 2Y ~3.44% | 10Y ~4.15% | 30Y ~4.80% — yields eased slightly after the prior session’s rally in equities, but the long end remained elevated, reflecting persistent term-premium and fiscal concerns.
- United Kingdom (Gilts): 10Y ~4.47%, marginally lower as softer inflation expectations offset supply pressure.
- Germany (Bunds): 10Y ~2.88%, stable; markets continued to price a gradual ECB easing path later in 2026.
- France (OATs): 10Y ~3.60%, steady following softer CPI signals.
- Italy (BTPs): 10Y ~3.55%, spreads contained amid supportive risk sentiment.
- Japan (JGBs): 10Y ~2.12%, near multi-decade highs as BoJ normalization expectations remained a key global duration risk.
- Australia (ACGBs): 10Y ~4.80%, little changed; domestic inflation risk keeps yields elevated.
- Canada (GoC): 10Y ~3.44%, tracking U.S. Treasuries with mild downside bias.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
- Nasdaq: +0.6% to ~23,547
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.6% to ~6,945 (record close)
- Dow Jones: +1.0% to ~49,462 (record close)
- CAC 40: ~+0.3% to ~8,237
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): +0.2% to ~5,934
- DAX (GER40): ~+0.1% to ~24,892
- Nikkei 225: +1.3% to ~52,518, extending record highs on strong risk-on flows and yen stability.
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- Global risk sentiment remained constructive, with equities pushing to new highs despite elevated global yields.
- Japan rates stayed in focus, as high JGB yields continued to influence global duration and FX positioning.
- Energy and defense stocks outperformed, reflecting lingering geopolitical risk tied to developments in Venezuela and broader security concerns.
- Europe “catch-up” trade persisted, supported by improving inflation dynamics and relatively attractive valuations versus U.S. equities.
- FX markets were orderly, with a firm yen capping Japanese exporter gains and a stable dollar supporting carry strategies.
- Positioning shifted toward cyclical exposure, as investors balanced growth optimism against tighter financial conditions.
Companies.
- “AI fatigue” became a dominant market narrative, with Bloomberg noting that investors began rotating away from the largest AI winners, shifting focus toward the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 amid valuation concerns.
- Nvidia remained the central volatility driver in AI-linked equities, as CEO comments on accelerating AI infrastructure demand continued to trigger sharp moves across the semiconductor and storage ecosystem.
- Sandisk surged sharply, with Bloomberg attributing the stock’s outsized rally to spillover effects from Nvidia’s CEO remarks highlighting storage demand tied to AI workloads.
- Samsung Electronics drew strong bullish sentiment, as investors bet that record earnings momentum could extend its roughly $350 billion rally, driven by memory pricing recovery and AI-related chip demand.
- Elon Musk’s xAI closed a ~$20 billion funding round, backed by Nvidia, underscoring intensifying capital flows into next-generation AI model development and compute infrastructure.
- Meta Platforms came under regulatory focus, after China initiated a review of Meta’s acquisition of AI startup Manus, highlighting rising geopolitical and data-security scrutiny around AI deals.
- Meta also appointed a senior Microsoft executive as its new Chief Legal Officer, signaling increased emphasis on regulatory navigation amid global AI, antitrust, and data-privacy pressure.
- Semiconductor-linked stocks experienced heightened dispersion, as investors differentiated between compute leaders, memory suppliers, and peripheral beneficiaries rather than buying the sector broadly.
- Large U.S. banks traded firmer, as investors positioned ahead of upcoming Q4 earnings with a focus on capital return, balance-sheet strength, and margin resilience rather than loan growth acceleration.
- Industrial bellwethers extended gains, supported by expectations of sustained U.S. infrastructure spending and improving capital-expenditure visibility heading into 2026.
- Energy majors advanced modestly, tracking stabilization in crude prices rather than company-specific operational developments.
- Overall company-level price action was driven by funding headlines, CEO commentary, and regulatory developments, rather than earnings releases or M&A announcements.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Amgen (AMGN) | ~$184B | ~3.5M | +3.47% | Healthcare bid; stock outperformed on a down tape. |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | ~$500B | ~4.42M | +1.32% | Defensive rotation / healthcare strength supported large-cap pharma. |
| Salesforce (CRM) | ~$260B | ~5.9M | +1.22% | Software resilience as investors broadened beyond mega-cap tech. |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$3.59T | ~24.4M | +1.04% | Quality mega-cap held up as “AI fatigue” drove internal rotation. |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ~$4.60T | ~117.2M | +1.00% | Still the primary AI sentiment proxy; price action remained market-moving. |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | ~$279B | ~3.30M | -4.26% | Industrial profit-taking; a key Dow drag on the day. |
| Nike (NKE) | ~$93.6B | ~14.3M | -3.26% | Risk trimming in consumer/cyclicals amid rotation. |
| Honeywell (HON) | ~$134B | ~5.08M | -2.65% | Industrial pressure broadened beyond CAT into diversified cyclicals. |
| Sherwin-Williams (SHW) | ~$92.1B | ~0.35M | -2.55% | Materials/industrials softness weighed; defensive bid didn’t extend here. |
| JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | ~$899B | ~9.67M | -2.28% | Bank profit-taking; among the largest negative Dow contributors. |
General
USD stabilizes as markets reassess the pace of further Fed easing The Dollar Index was broadly stable as investors tempered expectations for rapid follow-on rate cuts after the Fed’s recent move. While financial conditions remain accommodative, the dollar continued to trade as a relative value currency rather than a pure safe-haven.
JPY softens modestly as carry dynamics dominate low-volatility conditions The yen weakened slightly as stable U.S. yields and compressed volatility encouraged selective carry positioning. With no new signals from the BOJ, JPY price action remained closely tied to global rate movements.
Gold consolidates as defensive demand moderates amid calmer risk sentiment Gold prices traded sideways as easing geopolitical tension and steadier risk appetite reduced near-term safe-haven demand. Contained real yields continued to provide underlying support, limiting downside pressure.
Oil remains supported as supply risks offset persistent demand uncertainty Brent and WTI held near recent levels as supply-side risks continued to provide a floor, even as markets remained cautious on the global demand outlook. Energy prices reflected a balanced assessment between geopolitical risk and slowing growth signals.
Equity Flow shows selective re-engagement led by quality and defensives Equity flows pointed to cautious early-year re-risking, with investors favoring large-cap quality and defensive sectors. Broader participation remained limited, suggesting restraint rather than conviction in a strong growth rebound.
Geopolitical attention remains on energy-sensitive regions without escalation Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly in regions linked to energy supply, stayed in focus without triggering significant market repricing. Investors continued to treat these risks as potential tail events rather than base-case disruptions.
Corporate narratives emphasize cost discipline and cautious demand assumptions Company commentary continued to stress margin protection, controlled investment, and conservative demand outlooks for early 2026. Market reactions underscored a preference for earnings visibility and balance-sheet strength.
Systemic theme highlights normalization as liquidity and allocation settle into 2026 As early-year positioning matured, normalized liquidity conditions increasingly shaped price discovery across assets. Financial conditions remained supportive, but markets continued to differentiate between stabilization and a convincing acceleration in growth.
Upcoming News
Markets move into Thursday with a high-alert, pre-NFP positioning bias, as investors refine exposure ahead of Friday’s U.S. payrolls report. Overall market sense is cautious and data-reactive, with risk appetite supported by expectations of continued disinflation but constrained by uncertainty around labour-market momentum. FX and rates volatility is expected to cluster around U.S. labour and inflation-adjacent releases, while equities remain selective, favouring confirmation over speculation.
In the United States, attention centres on weekly Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI. Claims data will be closely watched for confirmation that labour cooling remains orderly rather than abrupt, while ISM Services is critical for assessing demand resilience and services-sector price pressures ahead of NFP. A combination of rising claims and softer ISM would reinforce expectations of Fed easing later in 2026 and weigh on the USD; resilience would help stabilize yields into payrolls.
Across Europe, Germany’s Industrial Production provides a key activity read following recent PMIs, with implications for Eurozone growth expectations and EUR rates. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s current-account data offers insight into external balances and yen flows, though regional markets are expected to remain largely reactive to U.S. developments. Corporate catalysts remain light, leaving macro data and positioning dynamics as the dominant drivers.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Current Account | External balance; JPY sensitivity via flow dynamics |
| 14:00 | 🔴 Red News | Germany | Industrial Production (m/m) | Core activity gauge; EUR rates and sentiment |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | Real-time labour stress signal ahead of NFP |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Pre-NFP positioning / Fed communication | Thin risk tolerance ahead of payrolls |
Snapshot – End 06.01.2026
G7 FX
- DXY: 98.729 (+0.14%)
- GBP/USD: 1.34578 (+0.01%)
- EUR/USD: 1.16770 (+0.02%)
- USD/JPY: 156.674 (−0.04%)
- USD/CHF: 0.79758 (−0.04%)
- EUR/GBP: 0.86764 (+0.01%)
- USD/CAD: 1.38598 (−0.01%)
- AUD/USD: 0.67220 (+0.02%)
- NZD/USD: 0.57736 (+0.01%)
Metals
- Gold: 4,460.758 (+0.10%)
- Silver: 78.4700 (+0.11%)
- Copper: 5.88433 (+0.12%)
Global Indices
- S&P 500: 6,929.17 (−0.02%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 5,924.96 (0.00%)
- Dow Jones: 49,044.45 (+0.04%)
- VIX: 16.674 (+0.30%)
- CAC 40: 8,233.93 (−0.04%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,653.90 (+0.06%)
Crypto Markets
- BTC/USD: 91,271 (−2.60%)
- ETH/USD: 3,166.3 (−3.92%)
- SOL/USD: 136.68 (−3.05%)
- OP/USD: 0.318 (−4.22%)
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
