Greenland Day 3 – What we should expect?
Data:
- [🟥 Trade shock → relief rally] Global risk sentiment flipped from “tariff panic” to “risk-on” after President Trump said a framework deal involving Greenland/Arctic meant planned tariffs on European allies would not proceed, sharply easing near-term trade overhang.
- [đźź© U.S. Equities | Rebound] Wall Street staged its strongest bounce in ~2 months: S&P 500 6,875.62 (+1.16%) | Dow 49,077.23 (+1.21%) | Nasdaq 23,224.82 (+1.18%).
- [🟨 Prior-day “red news” context | Tariff-led rout] The prior session (Tue) had been the worst drop in ~3 months on tariff fears: S&P 500 6,796.86 (-2.1%) | Dow 48,488.59 (-1.8%) | Nasdaq 22,954.32 (-2.4%) — setting up the oversold squeeze.
- [🟦 Global Rates | 10Y benchmarks] Long-end yields remained elevated, with Japan still the key volatility anchor: S. 10Y 4.284% | UK 10Y 4.462% | AU 10Y 4.769% | CA 10Y 3.435% | JP 10Y 2.317% | DE 10Y 2.860% | FR 10Y 3.526% | IT 10Y 3.462%.
- [đźź§ Europe | Equities stay pressured on trade jitters] Despite the U.S. relief headline later, Europe remained cautious intraday: STOXX 600 -0.1% in early trade; banks and financial services -0.6% as tariff risk had already tightened financial conditions.
- [đźź© Japan | Equity slide extends] Nikkei 225 52,774.64 (-0.41%), marking a 5th straight decline, as fiscal-sustainability worries and external trade uncertainty weighed on exporters/banks.
- [🟥 Banks | High beta leadership]S. regional banks outperformed on stronger results/relief rally — the regional banking index jumped ~4.7% to a 14-month high, helping broaden the rebound beyond megacaps.
- [🟨 Sectors | Energy + airlines bid] Energy led the S&P 500 higher (natural gas strength + earnings tone), while airlines advanced on upbeat guidance; Netflix fell ~2.2% on weaker outlook / capital return pause.
- [🟨 UK macro | CPI surprise] UK inflation rose to 3.4% y/y (Dec) vs ~3.3% expected; services inflation 4.5% — reducing the odds of aggressive BoE cuts and keeping gilts sensitive to data.
- [đźź§ What to watch next] Markets refocus from tariffs back to earnings breadth (banks/energy/consumer) and the rates path (term premium + Japan bond volatility) as the key cross-asset swing factors.
Companies.
+) Risk appetite snapped back after President Trump signaled a framework path on Greenland and walked back planned tariffs on European allies, triggering broad-based buying across cyclicals and defensives.
+) Major indexes rebounded sharply: S&P 500 +1.16%, Dow +1.21%, Nasdaq +1.18%, reversing part of the prior session’s drawdown.
+) Intel surged ~12% after a wave of analyst upgrades (including a raised price target), with investors leaning back into semis on “valuation reset + catalyst” positioning.
+) Netflix slipped ~2% despite an earnings beat, as softer margin guidance and a pause in buybacks (linked to M&A financing considerations) overshadowed the quarter.
+) Johnson & Johnson posted a solid quarter and upbeat 2026 outlook, supported by demand for newer therapies even as some product lines were softer.
+) Travelers beat earnings expectations and authorized a $5bn buyback, lifting insurer sentiment as investors rewarded capital return visibility.
+) Halliburton climbed after topping profit expectations and flagging it could re-enter Venezuela depending on commercial/legal terms and payment certainty—keeping LatAm optionality in focus.
+) United Airlines rose after better-than-expected results and constructive forward guidance, supporting the airlines complex.
+) Regional banks caught a strong bid; earnings-driven momentum pushed the regional bank index to a ~14-month high.
+) Energy led S&P sector performance, helped by rising natural-gas prices and solid prints from select names.
+) Kraft Heinz dropped ~5–6% after a report that Berkshire Hathaway may sell part of its stake, reigniting overhang concerns.
+) GameStop gained after disclosure that CEO Ryan Cohen bought ~500,000 shares, adding to retail-driven interest.
+) Charles Schwab edged higher as updates highlighted strong core net new asset accumulation, reinforcing platform strength into 2026.
+) Teledyne Technologies jumped ~10% on earnings strength, underscoring investor willingness to pay for clean beats and guidance.
+) Interactive Brokers rose ~6% on a strong print, consistent with the higher-activity and operating-leverage theme across electronic brokers.
+) Progress Software advanced ~11% following upbeat results, highlighting stock-specific dispersion where guidance clarity matters as much as headline beats.
** Winners/ Losers:
| Ticker | Company | Move | Key Driver |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +2–3% | Earnings resilience, defensive inflows |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | +2% | Stable guidance, staples rotation |
| KO | Coca-Cola | +1–2% | Risk-off positioning |
| WMT | Walmart | +1–2% | Defensive consumer demand |
| NEM | Newmont | +1–2% | Gold prices, safe-haven bid |
| Ticker | Company | Move | Key Driver |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +2–3% | Earnings resilience, defensive inflows |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | +2% | Stable guidance, staples rotation |
| KO | Coca-Cola | +1–2% | Risk-off positioning |
| WMT | Walmart | +1–2% | Defensive consumer demand |
| NEM | Newmont | +1–2% | Gold prices, safe-haven bid |
General
Currency Overview: FX markets remain disciplined as investors prioritize relative policy paths over directional risk
 G10 FX traded with subdued volatility as markets continued to favor relative-value positioning rather than outright directional exposure. Liquidity was stable, but conviction remained limited as investors balanced disinflation progress against lingering growth uncertainty, reinforcing a consolidation bias across major currency pairs.
EUR: Euro softens modestly as weak growth signals cap upside
 The euro edged lower as renewed focus on fragile Eurozone growth outweighed stable ECB policy expectations. With limited positive data catalysts, EUR price action remained driven by rate differentials and positioning rather than an improvement in the regional macro outlook.
GBP: Sterling trades defensively amid persistent UK growth and fiscal concerns
 Sterling underperformed modestly as investors revisited concerns over the UK’s soft growth profile and fiscal constraints. While global yield dynamics provided some offset, GBP continued to trade with a domestic risk premium embedded.
USD: Dollar firms slightly on defensive demand and liquidity preference
 The U.S. dollar gained marginal support as risk sentiment softened at the margin, benefiting from its role as a liquidity anchor. Although expectations for gradual Fed easing remain intact, near-term flows favored USD amid uncertainty around global growth momentum.
JPY: Yen remains pressured as carry dynamics dominate low-volatility conditions
 The yen stayed weak as stable global yields and compressed volatility continued to encourage carry positioning. In the absence of fresh domestic policy signals, JPY remained driven by external rate differentials rather than safe-haven demand.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver consolidate as hedge demand persists
 Gold and silver traded in narrow ranges, supported by contained real yields and ongoing demand for portfolio hedges. However, the lack of acute geopolitical escalation limited upside momentum in precious metals.
Energy: Oil prices ease as demand uncertainty regains focus
 Brent and WTI edged lower as markets refocused on uncertain global demand prospects. While geopolitical risks and supply discipline remained background supports, they were insufficient to offset concerns around consumption and growth.
Equity Flow: Investors rotate toward defensives and earnings visibility
 Equity flows reflected a cautious tone, with investors favoring defensives, large-cap quality, and sectors offering clearer earnings visibility. Broader risk appetite cooled slightly, consistent with late-cycle discipline rather than outright risk aversion.
Geopolitics: Strategic tensions remain a structural constraint
 Major geopolitical themes, including U.S.–China rivalry and ongoing regional conflicts, remained unchanged during the session. These risks continued to cap medium-term sentiment without triggering immediate volatility.
Corporate Focus: Guidance credibility and cost discipline dominate attention
 Investor focus remained centered on companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and conservative guidance. Firms exposed to margin pressure or demand uncertainty faced increased scrutiny as earnings season approaches.
Systemic View: Markets signal consolidation rather than stress or risk-on shift
 Across asset classes, price action continued to point to stabilization and selective de-risking rather than a decisive move toward higher risk. Financial conditions remained supportive, but investors stayed cautious, awaiting clearer confirmation from data and corporate earnings.
Upcoming News
Markets head into Thursday with a policy- and growth-sensitive tone, as investors digest the prior day’s U.K. inflation signals and refocus on U.S. activity and labour-market confirmation. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but selective, with FX and rates trading off relative growth differentials and policy expectations rather than broad risk appetite. Liquidity is normal, but headline sensitivity remains elevated, particularly around central-bank commentary and geopolitics, keeping intraday volatility risks asymmetric.
In the United States, attention centers on weekly Jobless Claims and leading activity indicators, which provide timely insight into whether labour-market cooling remains orderly after recent inflation and housing data. Claims will be watched closely for any inflection higher that could reinforce expectations of Fed easing later in 2026; a benign print would help stabilize front-end yields and limit USD downside. In Europe, PMI-related spillovers and confidence dynamics remain in focus, with EUR trading primarily as a function of U.S. yield moves rather than fresh domestic catalysts.
Across Asia–Pacific, Japan’s trade and manufacturing-related data offer incremental color on external demand and yen dynamics, though regional FX is expected to remain reactive to U.S. rates. Corporate catalysts are light, leaving macro data, policy signals, and positioning flows as the dominant drivers for today’s session.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 07:50 | đź”´ Red News | Japan | Trade Balance | External demand and flow dynamics; JPY sensitivity |
| 16:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | PMI (Flash) – Manufacturing | Activity momentum; EUR rates and sentiment |
| 16:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | PMI (Flash) – Services | Demand conditions; ECB growth narrative |
| 20:30 | đź”´ Red News | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | Real-time labour-market stress indicator |
| 22:00 | đź”´ Red News | United States | Leading Economic Index (LEI) | Forward-looking growth signal; USD & rates |
| All day | đź”¶ Stress / Headlines | Global | Central-bank / geopolitical headlines | Can amplify FX and rates moves |
Snapshot – End 20.1.2026
FX
- DXY: 98.79 (+0.23%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1675 (-0.06%)
- GBP/USD: 1.3423 (-0.01%)
- USD/JPY: 158.36 (+0.07%)
- USD/CHF: 0.7961 (+0.09%)
- EUR/GBP: 0.8697 (-0.04%)
- USD/CAD: 1.3843 (+0.08%)
- AUD/USD: 0.6754 (-0.11%)
- NZD/USD: 0.5838 (-0.12%)
Crypto
- Bitcoin (BTC): 89,788 (+1.67%)
- Ethereum (ETH): 3,004.6 (+2.32%)
- Solana (SOL): 130.05 (+3.49%)
- Optimism (OP): 0.311 (+4.01%)
Commodities
- Gold: 4,793.73 (-0.81%)
- Silver: 91.63 (-1.58%)
- Copper: 5.81 (-0.46%)
Equities / Indices
- S&P 500: 6,889.86 (+0.07%)
- EURO STOXX 50: 5,964.02 (+0.14%)
- Dow Jones: 49,168.21 (+0.07%)
- VIX: 18.22 (-0.82%)
- CAC 40: 8,069.18 (+0.08%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,326.58 (+1.36%)
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This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen