Crash on all markets? Trump and Xi on call before negotiation of tariffs
Data:
1) Global Rates / Yields — Key Benchmarks
- United States: UST 2Y 3.63–3.65% | 10Y 4.27–4.30% | 30Y 4.90–4.93%, yields remained elevated as markets reassessed Fed easing expectations after mixed labor signals.
- United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.52–4.56%, supported by sticky services inflation and cautious BoE guidance.
- Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.88–2.92%, broadly stable, tracking U.S. Treasuries.
- France: 10Y OAT ~3.58–3.62%, little changed.
- Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.30–2.34%, near multi-decade highs following weak demand at recent bond auctions.
- Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.88–4.92%, elevated as markets maintained a hawkish RBA bias.
- Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.43–3.47%, moving largely in line with U.S. yields.
- China: 10Y CGB ~1.85–1.87%, stable under an accommodative monetary stance.
2) Equity Index Moves
United States
- S&P 500 (US500): 6,882.7 (-0.5%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,904.9 (-1.2%)
- Dow Jones: 49,501.3 (+0.5%)
S. markets diverged sharply, with technology under pressure while industrials and defensives supported the Dow.
Europe
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,970 (flat to slightly higher)
- DAX (GER40): ~24,603 (-0.6% to -0.8%)
- CAC 40: ~8,262 (+~1.0%)
European equities were mixed, led by defensives and select cyclicals.
Asia
- Nikkei 225: ~54,290 (-0.7% to -0.9%), pressured by yen firmness and global tech weakness.
3) Prior‑Day Macro / “Red News”
- United States: Weekly initial jobless claims rose to ~231k, above expectations, hinting at gradual cooling in the labor market.
- United States: JOLTS job openings (Dec) fell to ~6.54 million, the lowest level in several years.
- United Kingdom: BoE held rates unchanged in a narrow 5–4 vote, reinforcing a cautious, data-dependent easing outlook.
- Euro Area: No tier-1 releases; markets remained focused on ECB communication and rate differentials
4) High‑Impact Market Headlines
- Technology stocks underperformed globally as investors continued to reassess AI-related valuations and earnings sustainability.
- Elevated U.S. and Japanese long-end yields remained a key constraint on equity multiple expansion.
- Gold and silver consolidated after last week’s sharp pullback from record highs.
- Oil prices held firm as geopolitical risk offset softer demand expectations.
- The Japanese yen remained relatively firm, weighing on exporter sentiment.
- Investors increasingly rotated toward value and defensive sectors amid late-cycle signals.
Companies.
+) Alphabet fell sharply after signaling very large multi-year AI capex, reviving concerns around ROIC and near-term margin dilution across hyperscalers.
+) Microsoft declined in sympathy as investors reassessed AI infrastructure spending intensity despite resilient enterprise demand and cloud backlog visibility.
+) Amazon traded lower with focus on AWS margin normalization and elevated capex, overshadowing ongoing retail cost discipline.
+) Nvidia extended losses amid a crowded AI trade unwind; demand fundamentals unchanged, but valuation compression dominated price action.
+) Advanced Micro Devices weakened alongside semis as markets weighed AI accelerator competition and near-term margin pressure.
+) Oracle sold off as investors questioned enterprise AI payback timelines, pressuring large-cap software multiples.
+) Palantir declined with software peers on multiple compression following a strong prior rally.
+) Tesla remained under pressure amid ongoing debate over pricing strategy, margins, and competitive intensity.
+) Eli Lilly traded lower post-earnings volatility as investors digested guidance versus elevated valuation.
+) Merck & Co outperformed modestly on defensive rotation and pipeline stability.
+) Johnson & Johnson attracted defensive inflows as capital rotated to cash-generative pharma.
+) Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble outperformed on staples-led defensive demand.
+) ConocoPhillips slipped with commodity volatility, despite reaffirmed capital-return discipline.
+) Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman held up relatively well on defense budget visibility and geopolitical risk premia.
** Winners/ Losers:
| Ticker | Company | Key Driver |
| KO | Coca-Cola | Defensive flows |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | Capital preservation trade |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Pharma defensiveness |
| MRK | Merck | Earnings resilience |
| SO | Southern Co. | Utility sector strength |
| Ticker | Company | Key Driver |
| NVDA | Nvidia | AI profit-taking |
| ORCL | Oracle | AI capex concern |
| PLTR | Palantir | Software multiple compression |
| TSLA | Tesla | Growth & margin pressure |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductor selloff |
General
Currency Overview: FX markets traded with subdued volatility as investors maintained a disciplined, relative-value approach amid mixed macro signals. Positioning remained cautious, reflecting confidence in gradual disinflation but limited conviction on global growth acceleration, keeping major currency pairs confined to narrow ranges.
EUR: The euro moved sideways, supported by stable rate differentials but capped by persistent weakness in Eurozone activity and soft credit transmission. With ECB expectations broadly unchanged, EUR price action continued to reflect spreads and positioning rather than an improving growth outlook.
GBP: Sterling traded defensively as concerns over the UK’s subdued growth profile and fiscal sensitivity lingered. Global yield dynamics offered only partial support, leaving GBP reactive to external rate moves rather than domestic catalysts.
USD: The U.S. dollar was broadly steady to slightly firmer, benefiting from liquidity preference and a cautious risk backdrop. While expectations for gradual Fed easing remain embedded, relative U.S. growth resilience and institutional credibility continued to underpin the dollar.
JPY: The yen remained under pressure as carry dynamics dominated in a low-volatility environment. In the absence of fresh domestic policy guidance, JPY continued to act as the adjustment valve for global rate differentials rather than a traditional safe haven.
Commodity – Gold & Silver: Gold and silver consolidated after recent volatility, supported by stabilizing real yields and residual hedging demand. However, calmer risk sentiment and a firm dollar limited momentum-driven safe-haven inflows.
Energy – Brent & WTI: Oil prices traded cautiously, balancing supply discipline and geopolitical optionality against ongoing uncertainty over global demand. Price action suggested limited inflationary pressure from energy at current levels.
Equity Flow: Equity flows remained selective, favoring large-cap quality, defensives, and earnings visibility over broad beta exposure. Investor behavior continued to reflect late-cycle discipline rather than confidence in a strong growth re-acceleration.
Geopolitics: Strategic tensions among major powers and ongoing regional conflicts remained a structural constraint on sentiment. These risks continued to cap medium-term confidence without triggering near-term volatility or abrupt repricing.
Corporate Focus: Investor attention stayed centered on earnings guidance, margin resilience, and cost discipline. Companies offering predictable cash flows and balance-sheet strength continued to command valuation support, while cyclical and high-beta names faced greater scrutiny.
Systemic View: Across asset classes, signals pointed to stabilization and differentiation rather than a regime shift. Financial conditions remained broadly supportive, but investors stayed cautious, awaiting clearer confirmation from macro data and corporate earnings before adjusting exposure materially.
Upcoming News
Markets head into Friday with a high-conviction, event-risk posture, as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) becomes the decisive macro catalyst for FX, rates, and global risk sentiment. Overall market sense is cautious but tactical, with positioning tightened after a full week of labour- and services-sector signals. Volatility is expected to peak around the payrolls release, with USD, front-end yields, gold, and equity index futures most sensitive to surprises—particularly in wage growth and participation, rather than the headline job count alone.
In the United States, markets will prioritize Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate to assess whether labour-market cooling is proceeding in a way that sustains disinflation without triggering growth concerns. A scenario featuring moderate job gains and softer wage pressure would reinforce expectations for Fed easing later in 2026, pressuring the USD and supporting Treasuries. Conversely, a wage-led upside surprise could prompt a sharp repricing in yields and a defensive dollar bid, even if payroll growth itself remains contained.
Across Europe, data risk is limited, leaving EUR largely reactive to U.S. yield movements and cross-currency flows. In the Asia–Pacific region, Australia’s labour data provides an important regional parallel to the U.S. payrolls narrative, influencing AUD positioning into the weekend. Corporate catalysts remain muted, ensuring that today’s session is overwhelmingly macro-driven.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | Australia | Employment Change | Labour momentum; AUD and rates sensitivity |
| 08:30 | 🔴 Red News | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Labour slack; RBA policy implications |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Primary labour-market catalyst; USD, rates, equities |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Unemployment Rate | Labour slack indicator; Fed path implications |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) | Wage inflation; critical for policy expectations |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | NFP-driven volatility / week-end positioning | Can amplify post-release moves |
Snapshot
FX
- DXY extended gains to 95 (+0.32%), supported by renewed USD demand.
- EUR/USD edged lower to 1776 (-0.01%), consolidating after recent volatility.
- GBP/USD slipped to 3515 (-0.07%), giving back earlier gains.
- USD/JPY retreated to 64 (-0.24%), reflecting mild JPY stabilization.
- USD/CHF softened to 7777 (-0.06%), tracking broader risk sentiment.
- USD/CAD rose slightly to 3717 (+0.04%), with oil unable to provide support.
- AUD/USD dropped to 6905 (-0.33%), underperforming amid risk-off flows.
- NZD/USD declined to 5934 (-0.28%), remaining pressured within G10 FX.
Crypto
- Bitcoin slid to $61,072 (-2.82%), remaining under heavy selling pressure.
- Ethereum fell to $1,803 (-1.15%), extending the downtrend.
- Solana dropped to $76.14 (-2.67%), tracking broader crypto weakness.
- Optimism (OP) eased to $0.179 (-1.10%), failing to hold recent rebounds.
Commodities
- Gold fell to $4,694/oz (-1.73%), reversing part of the prior rebound.
- Silver plunged to $65.19/oz (-8.09%), sharply underperforming metals.
- Copper eased to $5.663/lb (-1.74%), reflecting softer growth expectations.
Equities / Indices
- S&P 500 slid to 6,741 (-0.45%), extending the risk-off tone.
- Euro Stoxx 50 declined to 5,884 (-0.24%), pressured by global equity weakness.
- Dow Jones fell to 48,687 (-0.25%), with broad-based selling.
- Nasdaq 100 dropped to 24,549 (-1.38%), continuing tech-led losses.
- CAC 40 slipped to 8,239 (-0.29%), underperforming European peers.
- VIX jumped to 92 (+3.30%), signaling elevated market stress.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
