New Week actually incoming
Data:
- 🟦 Global Rates | Treasury curve bull-steepens after softer CPI
United States (UST): 2Y ~3.41% | 5Y ~3.69% | 10Y ~4.05% | 30Y ~4.73% — long-end yields retreated toward multi-month lows as inflation undershot expectations.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.48%.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.84%.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.54%.
Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.45%.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.28%, holding near multi-decade highs on BOJ normalization expectations.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.88%.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.38%.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.88%. - 🟨 U.S. Equities | Flat close into long weekend
S&P 500 (US500): ~6,845 (flat)
Nasdaq Composite: ~23,250 (−0.2%)
Dow Jones: ~50,180 (+0.2%)
Defensive sectors outperformed while megacap tech traded unevenly; volumes thinned ahead of the holiday. - 🟨 Europe Equities | Slight pullback
Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,970 (−0.3%)
DAX (GER40): ~24,940 (−0.4%)
CAC 40: ~8,295 (−0.2%)
European benchmarks tracked global tech softness but remained supported by banks and energy. - 🟩 Japan Equities | Elevated but volatile
Nikkei 225: ~57,450 (−0.6%)
Yen appreciation and high JGB yields weighed on exporters despite strong fiscal optimism. - 🟥 Macro “Red News” | Prior-day data highlights
United States: CPI printed softer than expected, reinforcing expectations for gradual Fed easing later in 2026.
United States: Weekly jobless claims remained low, signaling ongoing labor-market resilience.
Japan: GDP growth slowed markedly in Q4, raising debate over the pace of BOJ normalization. - 🟧 FX & Commodities | Dollar steady, gold supported
DXY: ~96.9–97.2 range.
USD/JPY: ~155–156 area.
Gold: ~US$4,230/oz, supported by easing rate expectations.
Brent crude: ~US$65/bbl | WTI: ~US$60/bbl, range-bound amid demand uncertainty.
Companies.
+) Coinbase traded lower in overseas markets after softer-than-expected Q4 transaction revenue, as retail crypto volumes normalized despite resilient institutional flows.
+) Walmart saw positioning build ahead of earnings later in the week, with investors focused on margin resilience and consumer-demand commentary.
+) Palo Alto Networks attracted options activity ahead of its earnings release, as enterprise cybersecurity budgets remain a key structural theme.
+) Deere & Company was in focus before results, with attention on equipment demand amid elevated financing costs and farm-income normalization.
+) HSBC gained in London trading following solid capital-return guidance and stable net-interest-income trends.
+) Barclays traded higher as European financials led STOXX 600 gains, benefiting from sector rotation into banks.
+) BAE Systems outperformed in the UK, supported by expectations of increased European defense spending.
+) LVMH declined amid weakness in European luxury stocks, reflecting cautious consumer-demand signals.
+) Alibaba Group traded mixed in Hong Kong as investors monitored China’s macro stimulus signals and tech-sector policy backdrop.
+) Samsung Electronics saw modest volatility as semiconductor sentiment remained fragile following global AI-sector rebalancing.
+) Tesla remained volatile in pre-holiday positioning, with margin and pricing strategy still central to investor debate.
+) Nvidia continued to face valuation-driven volatility as market participants assessed sustainability of hyperscaler AI capex trends.
General
Currency Overview: FX markets traded in a contained, range-bound manner as investors remained anchored to relative policy trajectories and upcoming macro catalysts. Volatility stayed subdued, reflecting confidence in gradual disinflation but limited conviction on a synchronized global growth rebound.
EUR: The euro moved sideways, supported by stable rate differentials but capped by weak Eurozone activity indicators and subdued domestic demand. With ECB expectations largely unchanged, EUR price action continued to reflect spreads and positioning rather than renewed optimism on regional growth.
GBP: Sterling traded defensively as concerns over the UK’s fragile growth outlook and fiscal sensitivity persisted. External rate dynamics provided limited support, leaving GBP reactive to global yield movements rather than domestic catalysts.
USD: The U.S. dollar remained broadly stable, balancing expectations for gradual Fed easing against liquidity demand and relative U.S. growth resilience. The greenback continued to function as a stability anchor in a low-volatility environment.
JPY: The yen remained under pressure as carry dynamics dominated amid compressed volatility. In the absence of fresh domestic policy guidance, JPY continued to reflect external rate differentials rather than safe-haven flows.
Commodity – Gold & Silver: Gold and silver consolidated after recent volatility, supported by contained real yields and residual hedging demand. However, the absence of acute geopolitical escalation limited additional momentum-driven inflows.
Energy – Brent & WTI: Oil prices traded cautiously, balancing supply discipline and geopolitical optionality against lingering uncertainty over global demand. Price action suggested limited inflationary impulse from energy at current levels.
Equity Flow: Equity flows remained selective, favoring large-cap quality, defensives, and sectors offering clearer earnings visibility. Broader beta exposure stayed restrained, consistent with late-cycle positioning rather than confidence in a strong cyclical upswing.
Upcoming News
Markets return to full liquidity on Tuesday as U.S. markets reopen after the Presidents’ Day holiday, restoring broader participation across FX, rates, and equities. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but data-dependent, with investors reassessing positioning after a thin Monday session. With inflation and retail data digested last week, attention shifts toward growth durability and policy expectations, particularly whether incoming activity indicators validate the soft-landing narrative.
In the United States, the focus centers on Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index, which provide timely insight into early-Q1 demand and construction sentiment. While second-tier releases, they can influence front-end yields given the market’s sensitivity to incremental growth signals. A stabilization in manufacturing and housing confidence would help contain rate volatility and support cyclical assets, while renewed softness could reinforce expectations for Fed easing later in 2026 and pressure the USD modestly.
Across Europe, the spotlight falls on ZEW Economic Sentiment (Germany and Eurozone), offering a forward-looking gauge of investor confidence. EUR price action is likely to respond primarily through yield differentials versus the U.S., especially if U.S. data surprise. In the Asia–Pacific region, Japan’s trade balance provides incremental clarity on external demand and yen flows, though JPY remains largely tethered to global rate movements. Corporate catalysts remain limited, leaving macro confirmation and positioning flows as the dominant drivers.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Trade Balance | External demand and flow dynamics; JPY sensitivity |
| 17:00 | 🔴 Red News | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Forward-looking investor confidence; EUR impact |
| 17:00 | 🔴 Red News | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Growth outlook; ECB expectations |
| 20:30 | 🔴 Red News | United States | Empire State Manufacturing Index | Early-Q1 manufacturing signal; USD & rates |
| 22:00 | 🔴 Red News | United States | NAHB Housing Market Index | Housing confidence; demand implications |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Post-holiday positioning / policy headlines | May amplify FX and rates moves |
Snapshot (Early 17.2.2026)
[🟢 Dollar Steady | DXY 97.13 (+0.03%)] The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.13, consolidating after last week’s volatility. Price action suggests a neutral bias into the U.S. session, with markets awaiting fresh macro catalysts.
[🔄 G7 FX | Mixed Performance]
- EUR/USD 1.1843 (-0.06%)
- GBP/USD 1.3618 (-0.05%)
- USD/JPY 153.32 (-0.13%)
- USD/CHF 0.7701 (+0.07%)
Dollar pairs traded in tight ranges. USD/JPY edged lower despite stable yields, while EUR and GBP softened modestly against the greenback.
[🪙 Crypto | Sideways Consolidation]
- BTC 68,867 (0.00%)
- ETH 1,999 (+0.13%)
- SOL 86.95 (+0.59%)
Crypto markets stabilized after recent volatility, with Bitcoin holding near 69k and altcoins posting marginal gains.
[🥇 Metals | Corrective Pullback]
- Gold 4,947.6 (-1.86%)
- Silver 74.62 (-3.52%)
Precious metals extended downside correction, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand and steady USD tone.
[📊 Equities | Risk Appetite Mildly Positive]
- S&P 500 6,847.8 (+0.10%)
- Dow Jones 49,565 (+0.05%)
- Nasdaq 24,732.7 (+0.18%)
- VIX 20.62 (-0.17%)
S. index futures held modest gains, while volatility eased slightly, suggesting cautious but constructive sentiment.
P/s: Happy Lunar New Year 2026 to all <3
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
