Market Snapshot December 4th 2025

Having no Idea on Dollar, but Replacement coming soon

Data:

– Global equities extended their rebound, supported by stabilising risk sentiment and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. U.S. and European futures were broadly firmer as investors re-entered risk assets after the prior session’s volatility.

– U.S. markets closed higher on 2 Dec, providing momentum into the 3 Dec session: Dow Jones ~+0.35–0.39%, S&P 500 +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.59–0.66%, led by technology and industrial names, while energy lagged.

– European equities strengthened, with the STOXX 600 +0.4% to 577.82, while Spain’s IBEX 35 hit a record high, driven by a ~7% surge in Inditex on strong early-winter sales. Broader European sentiment improved on lower yields and softer U.S. data.

– Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.47%, while Japan’s Nikkei consolidated after sharp rate-driven moves. Sentiment stabilised as the earlier shock from rising Japanese bond yields faded.

– U.S. labour-market data turned sharply weaker, with October private-sector employment dropping by 32,000 jobs, the weakest print since 2023. Markets interpreted the data as strengthening the case for a December Fed rate cut, pushing the 1-month T-bill yield down nearly 8 bps to below 3.77%, and ~25 bps lower since Friday.

– Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly, with Bitcoin rising over 6% and reclaiming the US$ 90,000 level after heavy liquidations the prior day. Broader crypto sentiment improved alongside easing bond-market stress.

– Commodities traded mixed: gold softened slightly to ~US$ 4,196/oz, while Brent crude hovered around US$ 62–63/bbl on demand concerns. Copper prices remained near record highs above US$ 11,100/ton, supporting mining shares.

– FX markets reflected a softer USD, with EUR and GBP up 0.3–0.9%, while USD/JPY declined ~0.2%, as markets shifted focus back toward Fed easing expectations and digested recent BoJ signals.

 

 

Companies.

+) Global equities advanced, supported by falling U.S. Treasury yields after weaker-than-expected U.S. private-sector payroll data reinforced expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

+) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell ~3bps, easing financial conditions and lifting risk sentiment across equities, commodities, and emerging-market assets.

+) Market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut in December climbed to nearly 90%, as investors reassessed the policy path in light of weaker labor-market signals.

+) European equities traded higher, with the STOXX 600 up ~0.5%, supported by falling global yields and renewed appetite for cyclicals.

+) Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both advanced, helped by strength in financials, autos, and industrials following the pullback in bond yields.

+) The decline in the U.S. dollar and improving global sentiment encouraged inflows into European exporters and energy names.

+) The ASX 200 rose, supported by stronger energy and mining shares as global commodity sentiment stabilized.

 

 

Company Highlights Key Metrics / Notes
CrowdStrike (CRWD) Strong quarter supported by robust cybersecurity demand and expanding ARR base. EPS beat • Subscription revenue ↑ • Guidance raised
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Continued strength in edge-to-cloud and networking segments; AI infrastructure orders improved outlook. EPS beat • Revenue ↑ modestly
Casey’s General Stores (CASY) Solid fuel margins and healthy in-store sales drove outperformance. EPS beat • Same-store sales ↑
GitLab (GTLB) Strong DevSecOps adoption drove ARR growth; enterprise contracts performed well. EPS beat • Revenue ↑ YoY
Ambarella (AMBA) Automotive & IoT camera softness led to a revenue miss; guidance trimmed. Revenue miss • Margins ↓
Toll Brothers (TOL) Luxury housing demand resilient; order growth and backlog remained strong. EPS beat • Orders ↑
3M (MMM) Early-month update showed margin stabilization and improving cash flow metrics. Margins ↑ • Revenue stable
Lululemon (LULU) Strong digital engagement and steady holiday traffic supported performance. Sales trends solid • Inventory healthy
AutoZone (AZO) Commercial and retail auto-parts demand remained firm. Revenue ↑ YoY • Margins resilient
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Transaction volumes rose on strong travel and entertainment demand. TPV ↑ double-digit • EPS beat

 

 

General

Global equities rebound as weaker U.S. data boosts Fed-cut expectations

Global markets stabilized with a mild risk-on tone after soft U.S. macro data pushed Treasury yields lower and lifted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming December meeting. European equities opened stronger — the STOXX 600 rose about 0.4% — with tech and industrial sectors leading gains.

Safe-haven assets strengthen as yields fall; gold and bitcoin advance

Gold held near recent highs while bitcoin rebounded above USD 90,000 as investors rotated into alternative assets amid declining U.S. yields and a softer dollar. Global bond markets also steadied after weeks of volatility, reflecting greater confidence in a near-term easing cycle.

FX markets mixed: sterling gains, rupee weakens further

The British pound strengthened to a five-week high against the dollar, supported by divergent monetary-policy expectations between the U.K. and eurozone. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee depreciated further, sliding beyond 90 per dollar due to higher tariffs, persistent capital outflows, and weaker investor sentiment in emerging markets.

Oil falls on weak demand signals and uncertainty around Russia-Ukraine peace efforts

Brent crude extended declines as concerns about softening global demand overshadowed supply-side risks. Prospects of renewed diplomatic engagement between Russia and Ukraine added another layer of uncertainty, weighing on the broader energy complex.

World Bank warns of growing financial strain in emerging markets

A new World Bank assessment highlighted that developing economies face record-high debt-servicing costs, with the gap between financing needs and available funding at its widest level in decades. The report heightened concerns about potential spillovers if global growth slows or financial conditions tighten unexpectedly.

Market sentiment improves but remains fragile ahead of key December events

Broader participation in the equity rebound was limited, with gains concentrated in large-cap tech and safer assets. Investors remain cautious as they await the Fed decision, fresh U.S. data releases, and geopolitical developments that could shift volatility sharply.

Upcoming News

Global markets enter Thursday with heightened attention on two critical themes: Europe’s inflation trajectory and the U.S. labour-market outlook, both of which will shape expectations heading into next week’s major central-bank meetings. With yesterday’s Eurozone CPI confirming a steady disinflation trend and U.S. ADP showing moderated hiring, markets are increasingly confident in a synchronized easing cycle for 2026 — yet remain cautious ahead of today’s key employment indicators.

In the United States, the focus shifts to weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs (Q3 Revised). Jobless claims have become an important real-time gauge of labour softness, especially amid a data backlog earlier in the quarter. Any sustained rise in unemployment filings could bolster expectations of an earlier Fed cut next year. Meanwhile, revised unit labour costs will provide clarity on wage-inflation pressures, crucial for validating the Fed’s disinflation narrative. Treasury yields remain near session lows, with the dollar trading defensively as markets wait for confirmation that labour cooling is broadening without signaling recession risk.

Across Europe, the aftermath of Wednesday’s weak CPI print keeps pressure on the European Central Bank to more explicitly acknowledge the timing of its 2026 easing cycle. While no major Eurozone data is scheduled today, markets will pay close attention to ECB Governing Council speeches, which have the potential to move short-end European yields in an environment of light U.S. liquidity. The euro remains steady, supported by improved credit conditions but capped by sluggish growth.

In the Asia–Pacific region, the spotlight is on Australia’s trade balance and Japan’s household spending figures, both of which offer important signals ahead of year-end policy deliberations. Australia’s export-driven sectors continue to respond positively to stabilizing Chinese demand, while Japan’s consumption trend will influence expectations for a potential BoJ policy shift in 2026. Asian equities trade mixed, with China attempting to consolidate recent gains driven by ongoing liquidity support and improved credit activity.

 

Region / Country Event / Indicator Expected Impact
🇺🇸 United States Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) 🔴 High — key real-time labour signal before major U.S. releases
🇺🇸 United States Unit Labor Costs (Q3, Revised) 🔴 High — wage-inflation gauge influencing Fed’s 2026 path
🇺🇸 United States Nonfarm Productivity (Q3, Revised) 🟠 Medium — insight into supply-side inflation pressures
🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (Oct) 🟠 Medium — reflects export strength amid China stabilization
🇯🇵 Japan Household Spending (Oct) 🟠 Medium — key for BoJ consumption outlook
🇯🇵 Japan Japanese Foreign Bond Investment 🟡 Low–Medium — capital-flow indicator
🇪🇺 Eurozone ECB Officials’ Speeches 🔴 High — guidance after weak CPI print
🌍 Global G7 Policy Remarks (as scheduled) 🔴 High — tone-setting for cross-asset sentiment

 

Snapshot: G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)

G7 FX

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eased to 99.868 (-0.46%), extending its soft bias as markets positioned defensively ahead of U.S. ISM and labor data later this week. FX pairs traded in narrow ranges, reflecting a cautious risk tone.

Analysis:
FX markets remained directionless but stable. Dollar softness continued as U.S. rate-cut expectations for 2026 recalibrated lower. Commodity currencies lagged slightly due to softer oil. JPY showed tentative strength as U.S. yields dipped.

 

Metals

Metals traded mixed, with gold consolidating while silver outperformed once again.

Analysis:

Gold’s stability underscores persistent safe-haven flows amid softer yields. Silver maintained upward momentum, while copper stayed range-bound, reflecting cautious risk appetite.

 

Global Indices

Global equities showed a mixed tone, with U.S. indices losing slight momentum while Europe modestly outperformed.

Analysis:
Markets leaned cautiously ahead of key U.S. data later this week. Tech outperformed again while broader indices paused. Volatility stayed compressed, indicating a lack of bearish conviction.

 

Crypto Markets

Crypto saw broad recovery, led by blue-chip tokens as risk sentiment improved modestly.

Analysis:
 Bitcoin reclaimed strength above 93k, while Ethereum outperformed on improving on-chain dynamics. Altcoins bounced broadly but remained vulnerable after recent deleveraging episodes.

 

Macro Data Snapshot

United States

Japan

 

This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen

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