Volatility Incoming…
Data:
– Gold eased slightly to US$ 4,218.71/oz (-0.3%), after touching a six-week high the previous day, as firmer U.S. Treasury yields capped gains.
– U.S. Treasury yields stabilised, with the 10-year hovering around ~4.09% and the 2-year near ~3.52%, as global bond markets attempted to recover from the prior week’s sharp selloff.
– Japan’s government bond market steadied following a strong JGB auction, easing fears of a disorderly sell-off. The 10-year JGB yield, which had surged to 17-year highs earlier in the week, moderated on improved auction demand.
– Global equities regained footing, led by Asia-Pacific markets, while South Korea’s KOSPI outperformed with modest gains; however, China lagged due to weakness in domestic demand indicators.
– Crypto markets remained volatile, with Bitcoin struggling to recover from its late-November decline amid rising global yields and reduced risk appetite.
– Oil prices slipped ~1%, weighed by oversupply concerns and cautious sentiment ahead of OPEC+ discussions.
– Australian equities strengthened, with the ASX 200 rising +0.8%, supported by improved global risk sentiment and renewed equity inflows. Mining and materials stocks outperformed, aided by firmer gold and base-metal prices.
– AUD/USD edged higher toward ~0.6650, benefiting from a softer U.S. dollar and steady U.S. Treasury yields, which improved the appeal of the Australian dollar for yield-seeking and carry-trade investors in a high-rate global environment.
– Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held near ~4.15%, stabilizing as global volatility eased, helping Australian sovereign bonds maintain relative attractiveness.
Companies.
+) Global equities rebounded modestly, led by U.S. futures and European benchmarks, as investors reassessed risk sentiment after Monday’s sharp declines driven by the yen shock and rising global yields.
+) The U.S. Dollar Index weakened slightly, while the yen remained elevated near ¥155–156, maintaining pressure on Japanese exporters but stabilizing after Monday’s outsized moves.
+) European equities traded higher, with the STOXX 600 up ~0.3%, supported by gains in financials and consumer discretionary as bond yields eased from their previous highs.
+) U.S. equity futures moved into positive territory, helped by cooling Treasury yields and investor positioning ahead of key macro releases (JOLTS, ISM Services, ADP jobs).
+) Tech shares regained footing, with mega-cap names seeing bargain hunting after the prior session’s rate-driven selloff; AI-linked stocks remained volatile but saw stabilizing flows.
| Company | Highlights | Key Metrics / Notes |
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) | Strong cybersecurity demand fueled another quarter of double-digit ARR growth. | EPS beat • Subscription revenue ↑ • Guidance raised |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) | Steady edge-to-cloud and networking demand supported results; AI infrastructure orders noted as a growth driver. | EPS beat • Revenue ↑ mildly • ARR solid |
| Casey’s General Stores (CASY) | Delivered robust fuel margins and in-store sales, outperforming retail peers. | EPS beat • Same-store sales ↑ • Fuel margins strong |
| GitLab (GTLB) | Strong DevSecOps platform adoption; enterprise contracts drove ARR expansion. | EPS beat • Revenue ↑ YoY • FY guidance maintained |
| Ambarella (AMBA) | Weakness in automotive and IoT camera orders weighed on revenue; guidance trimmed. | Revenue miss • Margins ↓ • Outlook cautious |
| Toll Brothers (TOL) | Benefited from elevated demand in luxury housing and limited supply. | EPS beat • Orders ↑ • Housing backlog solid |
| MMM (3M Company) | Delivered stabilizing results in early-month update; restructuring benefits ongoing. | Margins ↑ • Revenue stable |
| Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | Retail momentum remained healthy into early December; strong digital engagement. | Sales trends positive • Holiday traffic strong |
| AutoZone (AZO) | Solid parts demand and higher commercial sales supported steady earnings. | Revenue ↑ YoY • Margins resilient |
| Shift4 Payments (FOUR) | Payment processing volume rose sharply on travel and entertainment spending. | TPV ↑ double-digit • EPS beat |
General
Global equities rebound as tech and AI regain momentum ahead of Fed decision
Global stocks advanced as renewed enthusiasm in technology and AI-linked sectors lifted major indices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, reinforcing risk appetite and helping markets recover from earlier BOJ-driven volatility.
OECD upgrades global growth outlook but warns of slower trade expansion
The OECD raised its economic growth forecasts for major economies — including the U.S. and eurozone — citing resilient domestic demand and steady labor markets. However, the organisation cautioned that global trade growth may weaken in 2026 due to tariff expansions and supply-chain fragmentation, posing a medium-term risk to global recovery.
Japanese bond auction stabilizes global yields after prior volatility
A successful Japanese government bond (JGB) auction helped calm global fixed-income markets, following sharp yield swings triggered by BOJ policy speculation. The strong demand for JGBs eased pressure on bond yields worldwide, improving stability for currency markets and carry-trade positions.
Commodities remain subdued as demand indicators stay mixed
Despite positive equity sentiment, oil and industrial commodities traded cautiously amid uncertain demand signals from major economies. Traders remained focused on upcoming macro data releases and central-bank meetings — key drivers of commodities pricing in the coming weeks.
Market breadth remains narrow despite headline gains
Even with notable index rebounds, underlying participation stayed limited. Fund-flows showed selective positioning into large-cap tech rather than broad-based accumulation, reflecting investor caution given elevated valuations and lingering macro uncertainty.
FX stays steady as dollar softens; yen stabilizes after prior swings
The U.S. dollar drifted lower on rising rate-cut expectations, while the Japanese yen stabilized following the JGB auction. Other regional currencies saw moderate gains, supported by improving risk sentiment and lower global yields.
Upcoming News
Global markets turn their attention to a dense mid-week macro lineup, with Wednesday shaping up as one of the more consequential sessions ahead of the U.S. PCE release later in the week. Investors remain focused on labour-market cooling, manufacturing stabilization, and early signs of whether global central banks will maintain their synchronized easing bias into 2026.
In the United States, the spotlight falls on the ADP Employment Report (Nov) and the ISM Services PMI (Nov) — both critical, real-time indicators amid lingering data distortions earlier in the quarter. Markets expect ADP job gains to moderate further, consistent with a soft-landing labour narrative. Meanwhile, services PMI will provide fresh insight into demand resilience and service-sector inflation. Any combination of softer employment and stabilizing PMI would strengthen expectations of continued Fed easing in early 2026, keeping Treasury yields subdued and the dollar under pressure.
Across Europe, attention is on Eurozone CPI Flash (Nov) — one of the week’s most influential releases globally. Economists expect headline and core inflation to continue decelerating toward the ECB’s target range. A weaker print could accelerate bets on ECB rate cuts by mid-2026, while an upside surprise would challenge the recent easing narrative. The euro trades cautiously ahead of the data, supported by firmer credit conditions but capped by muted industrial activity.
In the Asia–Pacific region, markets digest Australia’s GDP (Q3) and Japan’s Services PMI (Nov). Australia’s growth print will influence expectations for the RBA’s first 2026 move, while Japan’s PMI will clarify whether recent price pressures are translating into broader economic momentum. Chinese markets remain stable, driven by improved manufacturing sentiment earlier in the week and ongoing policy support for credit and liquidity.
| Region / Country | Event / Indicator | Expected Impact |
| United States | ADP Employment Change (Nov) | 🔴 High — key early labour-market signal ahead of NFP blackout |
| United States | ISM Services PMI (Nov) | 🔴 High — critical for service-sector inflation & demand |
| United States | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 🟠 Medium — energy sentiment indicator |
| Eurozone | CPI Flash (Nov) | 🔴 High — pivotal for ECB’s 2026 easing expectations |
| Germany | Unemployment Change (Nov) | 🟠 Medium — employment read for Europe’s growth engine |
| Australia | GDP (Q3) | 🔴 High — major driver for RBA’s 2026 policy path |
| Japan | Services PMI (Nov) | 🟠 Medium — insight into domestic demand conditions |
| China | No major scheduled data | 🟡 Low — sentiment driven by earlier PMI & policy tone |
| Global | ECB, Fed, BoE Speeches | 🔴 High — guidance shaping cross-asset positioning |
Snapshot: G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 99.33, slightly softer on the session (–0.03%), as traders positioned cautiously ahead of a dense U.S. data calendar this week. FX flows remained tight, with most major pairs consolidating after Friday’s volatility.
- EUR/USD: 1638 (+0.05%) — euro held firm on stabilizing Eurozone yields and improving PMI sentiment.
- GBP/USD: 3217 (+0.08%) — supported by stronger gilts and better consumer-confidence data.
- USD/JPY: 77 (–0.06%) — yen stabilized slightly as U.S. yields edged lower.
- USD/CHF: 8746 (+0.01%) — SNB-neutral tone kept CHF stable.
- EUR/GBP: 8799 (flat).
- USD/CAD: 3916 (+0.07%) — softer crude weighed modestly on CAD.
- NZD/USD: 5724 (–0.05%) — mild profit-taking after last week’s rebound.
Analysis:
FX markets traded directionless but orderly. Dollar softness persisted as the market scaled back aggressive Fed-cut pricing. JPY and CHF flows were muted, while commodity FX lagged slightly on risk-neutral sentiment.
Metals
Metals were mixed, with gold consolidating near recent highs while silver outperformed on strong industrial demand and positioning flows.
- Gold (XAU/USD): 4,206.73 (+0.01%) — held above the 4,200 support zone.
- Silver (XAG/USD): 33 (+0.16%) — continued its multi-week outperformance.
- Copper: 5,386 (–0.04%) — slightly lower amid softer China factory orders.
Analysis:
Gold’s resilience suggests continued safe-haven demand, especially as yields drift lower. Silver trades with both macro and industrial momentum. Copper remains sensitive to China growth signals.
Global Indices
Global equities traded mixed as investors reassessed earnings expectations and watched U.S. macro catalysts.
- S&P 500 (SPX500): 6,847.95 (–0.04%)
- EU50: 5,767.40 (+0.03%)
- Dow Jones CFD: 47,456.00 (+0.11%)
- VIX: 44 (–0.56%) — volatility eased further.
- CAC 40: 8,074.43 (–0.22%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,859.60 (+0.58%)
Analysis:
Risk sentiment stayed constructive with low volatility, though U.S. equity momentum slowed. Tech outperformed again, while Europe traded flattish amid cautious macro tone. Investors are awaiting U.S. labor data later this week.
Crypto Markets
Crypto markets saw mild stabilization after last week’s heavy selling, but upside momentum remained fragile.
- BTC/USD: 91,390 (+0.09%)
- ETH/USD: 3,032.80 (–0.48%)
- SOL/USD: 88 (–4.26%)
- OP/USD: 2858 (–3.72%)
Analysis:
Bitcoin held above the 90k handle but showed limited directional conviction. Ethereum lagged despite on-chain stabilization. Altcoins underperformed broadly, reflecting ongoing risk reduction after last week’s liquidations.
Macro Data Snapshot
United States
- US 10-year yield: 3.82% (–2 bps) — steady ahead of NFP week.
- US 2-year yield: 4.11% (–3 bps) — markets pricing ~120 bps Fed cuts in 2026.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 (prev 49.9) — returned to expansion.
- Job Openings (JOLTS): 8.8M expected — lowest in 3 years.
- FOMC outlook: Markets shifting toward 2 cuts in H1 2026.
Eurozone
- Eurozone CPI Flash: 2.8% YoY (prev 3.1%) — cooling faster; ECB doves gaining ground.
- Core CPI: 3.4% YoY — still sticky.
- Germany Manufacturing PMI: 47.6 — remains contractionary.
- Bund 10-year yield: 1.98% (–4 bps).
United Kingdom
- UK 10-year yield: 3.71% (–3 bps).
- UK Nationwide House Prices: +0.3% MoM — first gain in three months.
- BoE outlook: Rate cuts priced for mid-2026, slower than peers.
Japan
- Japan 10-year JGB: 0.92% (flat).
- Tokyo CPI: 2.3% YoY — softening, reduces pressure on BoJ.
- BoJ stance: Guidance remains accommodative; no policy shift expected until mid-2026.
Canada
- Canada GDP (Q3): 0.1% QoQ (stalling).
- 10-year yield: 2.98%.
- BoC: Maintaining restrictive stance but more dovish signals emerging.
Australia
- RBA Cash Rate: 4.35% (unchanged).
- Australia Retail Sales: –0.2% MoM — household spending slowing.
- 10-year AU yield: 4.17%.
New Zealand
- RBNZ Cash Rate: 5.50% (unchanged).
- NZ Consumer Confidence: steady but low.
- 10-year NZ yield: 4.41%.
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
