Market Snapshot 30.12.2025: New Year’s coming
Data:
🟦 Global Rates / Yields
- United States (Treasuries): Long-end yields edged higher as liquidity improved slightly post-holiday. 2Y ~3.55–3.62% | 5Y ~3.95–4.02% | 10Y ~4.25–4.30% | 30Y ~4.92–4.98%. Curve steepening continued, reflecting higher term premium and expectations that Fed easing is pushed into late-2026.
- United Kingdom (Gilts): 10Y ~4.52–4.60%, broadly stable; fiscal outlook and heavy issuance remain key constraints on duration demand.
- Australia (ACGBs): 10Y ~4.80–4.88%, modestly firmer as domestic growth resilience and global long-end pressure kept yields elevated.
- Canada (GoC): 10Y ~3.50–3.60%, tracking U.S. Treasuries with mild steepening bias.
- Other key markets:
- Germany 10Y Bund ~2.95–3.02%, moving higher as defensive demand eased.
- Japan 10Y JGB ~2.05–2.10%, holding near multi-decade highs amid persistent BoJ normalization expectations.
🟩 Equities — Major Index Moves
United States:
- Nasdaq: +0.5–0.8%, supported by selective buying in mega-cap technology and AI-linked stocks.
- S&P 500 (US500): +0.4–0.6%, consolidating near record highs as risk appetite cautiously improved.
- Dow Jones: +0.2–0.4%, led by industrials and financials.
Asia + Europe:
- Nikkei 225: -0.3–0.6%, pressured by a firmer yen and elevated domestic bond yields.
- CAC 40: +0.2–0.5%, supported by luxury and defensive sectors.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): +0.2–0.4%, modest gains in thin year-end trade.
- DAX (GER40): ~flat to +0.2%, exporters lagging amid FX headwinds.
🟨 Macro / Economic Calendar
- Term-premium rebuild theme: Rising long-end yields in the U.S. and Japan reinforced the narrative that structural supply and fiscal dynamics are driving rates, not near-term growth fears.
- Equity rally remains narrow: Gains concentrated in U.S. mega-cap growth and quality balance-sheet names; breadth stayed limited.
- BoJ normalization risk dominant: Elevated JGB yields continued to influence global duration trades and yen positioning.
- Fed messaging unchanged: Policymakers maintained a patient, data-dependent stance, pushing back against expectations of early easing.
- Commodities mixed: Oil remained capped by oversupply concerns, while gold stayed supported as a hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
- FX markets subdued: S. dollar traded range-bound; yen firmness continued to weigh on Japanese equities.
Companies.
+) Corporate news flow remained notably subdued, as most listed companies were in year-end blackout periods ahead of the January earnings season.
+) Mega-cap technology companies continued to attract steady inflows, driven by year-end portfolio rebalancing favoring balance-sheet strength and earnings visibility.
+) Semiconductor leaders traded unevenly, with positioning adjustments reflecting expectations of continued AI-related capital expenditure in 2026 rather than fresh announcements.
+) Energy majors remained under pressure, as softer crude prices and year-end profit-taking weighed on the sector despite no new operational updates.
+) Consumer discretionary companies showed mixed performance, with e-commerce and travel-related firms holding up better than traditional retail names.
+) Financial institutions saw limited stock movement, as stable bond yields and the absence of regulatory or policy headlines capped volatility.
+) Industrial companies issued no major operational updates, consistent with seasonal pauses in capital allocation and strategic announcements.
+) Healthcare and biotechnology stocks experienced stock-specific moves, driven mainly by technical positioning and follow-through from earlier pipeline or regulatory news.
** Top 5 Gainers
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ~$2.0T | Light-Med | +1.7% | AI positioning |
| Apple (AAPL) | ~$3.0T | Light-Med | +1.1% | Defensive mega-cap flows |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$2.9T | Light-Med | +1.0% | Cloud stability |
| Amazon (AMZN) | ~$1.7T | Light-Med | +1.3% | Consumer demand |
| Meta Platforms (META) | ~$1.2T | Light-Med | +0.9% | Advertising momentum |
** Top 5 Loser
| Company | Market Cap | Volume | % Move | Catalyst |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | ~$470B | Light-Med | −1.6% | Energy weakness |
| Chevron (CVX) | ~$290B | Light-Med | −1.4% | Oil price pressure |
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | ~$135B | Light-Med | −1.5% | Crude sensitivity |
| Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | ~$60B | Light-Med | −1.3% | Copper softness |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | ~$75B | Light-Med | −1.0% | Utilities lag |
General
Currency Overview trades with modest volatility as year-end rebalancing intensifies G10 FX saw slightly firmer activity as portfolio rebalancing and funding adjustments picked up ahead of calendar year-end. The U.S. dollar was mixed, reflecting a tug-of-war between residual defensive demand and fading year-end distortions, while overall FX moves remained flow-driven rather than macro-led.
EUR holds steady as ECB expectations remain unchanged into year-end The euro traded narrowly as investors refrained from initiating new positions without fresh Eurozone catalysts. Stable ECB guidance and limited data flow kept EUR anchored to relative rate considerations and portfolio flows rather than a reassessment of growth prospects.
GBP consolidates as normalization of flows offsets domestic uncertainty Sterling moved sideways as year-end adjustments balanced lingering concerns over the UK’s growth outlook and fiscal sensitivity. With no new BOE signals, GBP continued to track global yield dynamics more closely than domestic developments.
USD stabilizes as funding demand eases after month-end adjustments The Dollar Index steadied as funding pressures moderated and balance-sheet effects began to fade. Markets maintained expectations for a gradual, data-dependent Fed easing path, limiting directional follow-through in the absence of fresh macro signals.
JPY softens modestly as carry dynamics regain traction The yen edged lower as U.S. yields held firm and volatility remained compressed, encouraging selective carry positioning. Absent new BOJ communication, JPY price action remained primarily linked to global rate movements and cross-border flows.
Gold trades flat as defensive demand wanes into year-end Gold prices were largely unchanged as easing defensive demand offset support from contained real yields. With macro catalysts scarce, bullion remained range-bound, reflecting consolidation rather than renewed safe-haven accumulation.
Oil edges lower as demand concerns reassert dominance Brent and WTI slipped modestly as markets refocused on uncertain global demand heading into the new year. Supply-side headlines had limited impact, reinforcing a cautious outlook for energy-driven inflation pressures.
Equity Flow reflects selective positioning ahead of January resets Equity flows pointed to cautious adjustments rather than broad risk accumulation, with investors favoring quality and balance-sheet strength. The pattern suggested preparation for January reallocation rather than conviction on near-term growth acceleration.
Geopolitical backdrop remains stable with risks priced as structural Major geopolitical themes—including U.S.–China strategic rivalry and ongoing regional conflicts—showed no new escalation. Markets continued to treat these issues as medium-term constraints rather than immediate volatility catalysts.
Corporate-specific focus centers on guidance discipline and cost control Investor attention remained on company commentary around early-2026 demand visibility, margins, and capital discipline. Selective repricing underscored a market preference for earnings durability and cash-flow resilience as year-end approaches..
Upcoming News
Markets move into Tuesday in a deep year-end liquidity environment, with sentiment dominated by position squaring, balance-sheet constraints, and technical flows rather than fundamental conviction. Overall market sense remains range-bound and fragile, with FX and rates prone to outsized but short-lived moves on relatively modest data surprises. With only one full trading day left in the year, participants are largely focused on capital preservation and avoiding headline risk ahead of the calendar turn.
In the United States, attention turns to housing and confidence indicators, which will be interpreted as late-cycle confirmation signals rather than trend-defining data. Pending and home price data will help assess whether housing activity is stabilising into year-end, but any market reaction is likely to be muted unless the surprise is significant. The USD is expected to trade defensively, driven more by relative rate positioning than fresh macro inputs.
Across Europe, the calendar remains very light, keeping EUR movements tied to U.S. yield spillovers and cross-currency flows. In Asia–Pacific, Japan’s labour-market data provides incremental insight into domestic conditions, while China remains headline-driven amid year-end liquidity operations and policy messaging. Overall, macro relevance is secondary to liquidity dynamics and technical positioning.
Corporate catalysts remain negligible, leaving today’s session driven primarily by thin liquidity, positioning effects, and residual macro sensitivity.
| Time (GMT+7) | Category | Country / Region | Event | Market Relevance |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Construction Orders (y/y) | Late-cycle activity signal; limited JPY impact in thin liquidity |
| 06:50 | 🔴 Red News | Japan | Housing Starts (y/y) | Domestic demand indicator; BoJ policy context |
| All day | 🔶 Stress / Headlines | Global | Year-end positioning / market closures | Liquidity-driven volatility risk |
Snapshot – Early Monday
G7 FX
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 98.22 (+0.21%), supported by mild USD demand amid thin year-end liquidity, while major FX pairs remained range-bound.
- EUR/USD: 1746 (–0.02%) — euro edged lower, consolidating recent gains.
- GBP/USD: 3465 (–0.01%) — sterling marginally softer, limited directional bias.
- USD/JPY: 44 (+0.07%) — yen weakened modestly alongside firmer USD tone.
- USD/CHF: 7919 (+0.01%) — CHF slightly softer.
- EUR/GBP: 8723 (+0.01%) — stable cross, low volatility.
- USD/CAD: 3670 (flat) — CAD steady, crude influence muted.
- AUD/USD: 6954 (–0.01%) — mild AUD softness.
- NZD/USD: 5790 (–0.05%) — NZD underperformed modestly.
Metals
Metals softened modestly across the board.
- Gold (XAU/USD): 4,333.28 (–0.12%) — modest pullback.
- Silver (XAG/USD): 96 (–1.66%) — sharp underperformance versus gold.
- Copper: 7349 (–0.54%) — eased amid cautious growth sentiment.
Global Indices
Equities traded mixed but constructive, with U.S. tech leading gains and volatility easing further.
- S&P 500: 6,901.39 (–0.05%)
- Dow Jones: 48,433.45 (–0.02%)
- Nasdaq 100: 25,462.56 (–0.25%)
- EU50: 5,812.35 (+0.89%)
- CAC 40: 8,168.16 (+0.69%)
- VIX: 37 (+0.31%)
Analysis: Risk appetite improved modestly, driven primarily by tech strength. Falling volatility signaled continued complacency, though overall participation remained light.
Crypto Markets
Crypto assets saw mild stabilization, with selective strength in Ethereum while broader altcoins lagged.
- BTC/USD: 88,409 (+1.48%)
- ETH/USD: 2,969.3 (+1.18%)
- SOL/USD: 124.94 (+1.44%)
- OP/USD: 0.272 (+1.12%)
This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen
