Market Snapshot December 10th 2025

RBA Keeps Rates, FOMC?

Data:

– Core global rates remained elevated but stable: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.17%, the UK 10-year around 4.53%, and the German 10-year near 2.87%, as markets balanced softer inflation against concerns over fiscal sustainability and tighter long-end conditions.

– FX markets responded to diverging central-bank paths:

– The U.S. dollar index was broadly steady, as modest euro and yen gains offset pressure from higher U.S. yields. The euro edged up on slightly more hawkish ECB commentary, while the yuan firmed after cautious but supportive signals from Beijing’s recent policy meetings.

– Commodities traded in tight ranges: spot gold hovered near US$ 4,220/oz, silver around US$ 58.7/oz, while Brent crude was roughly US$ 62.4/bbl and WTI US$ 58.7/bbl, reflecting a balance between cautious demand expectations and ongoing geopolitical supply risk.

– Crypto assets eased, with Bitcoin and Ether both down more than 1% on the day, as higher yields and pre-Fed positioning prompted some de-risking after a strong run-up earlier in the month.

Companies.

– Global equities were mixed as markets went into “Fed-waiting mode”, with investors largely marking time ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. A 25 bps cut remained widely expected, but uncertainty over the forward path of cuts and guidance kept risk appetite contained.

– Wall Street paused just below record highs, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 6,840.51, the Dow Jones off 0.4% to 47,560.29, and the Nasdaq up 0.1% to 23,576.49, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.2% to 2,526.24. A rise in U.S. job openings pushed Treasury yields higher, weighing on large caps and keeping intraday moves tight.

– European equities inched higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2% at 579.23 by mid-morning. Financials and insurers led gains (insurers +1.3%, banks +0.5%), while defence stocks outperformed after reports that German lawmakers are set to approve €52 billion in procurement contracts; Rheinmetall, RENK and Hensoldt rose between 4–6%.

– Asian markets traded softer overall ahead of the Fed, with Nikkei +0.17%, Shanghai Composite –0.15%, Hang Seng –0.91%, and ASX 200 –0.27%. The cautious tone reflected weak leads from Wall Street and a near-90% implied probability of a Fed cut already priced into rates.

+) A report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) highlighted a new record in global debt (≈ US$346 trillion), adding structural concerns to the 2026 outlook.

+) Investors rotated toward defensive, cash-flow-generating sectors, reflecting increased caution heading into major central-bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA).

 

Company Highlights Key Metrics / Notes
Casey’s General Stores (CASY) Reported strong quarterly results driven by fuel margins and in-store demand. EPS beat • Revenue ↑ • Same-store sales growth solid.
Stitch Fix (SFIX) Delivered results reflecting continued restructuring; revenue decline moderated. Revenue ↓ YoY • Active clients ↓ • Loss narrowed.
ABM Industries (ABM) Facilities services provider posted stable earnings as demand for cleaning & industrial services held firm. EPS in line • Revenue slightly ↑.
VXRT (Vaxart) (biotech) Updated quarterly financials with progress on pipeline programs. R&D spend ↑ • Revenue minimal (common for biotech).
Toll Brothers (late-cycle adjustment) Homebuilder sentiment and earlier guidance reaffirmed heading into year-end. Orders steady • Margins supported by luxury segment.

 

General

Global markets hold steady as investors await the Federal Reserve decision

Equity markets traded mostly flat, with global investors staying on the sidelines one day before the Fed’s highly anticipated policy announcement. The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly and Treasury yields edged higher, reflecting expectations that the Fed may deliver a cautious — potentially hawkish — tone even if a rate cut is announced.

Oil softens on improving supply conditions and uncertain demand

Brent crude declined slightly as production resumed at a major Iraqi oilfield, easing supply concerns. Meanwhile, mixed macro indicators and global demand uncertainty kept oil prices under pressure ahead of the Fed meeting and ongoing Russia–Ukraine diplomatic discussions.

Gold dips but remains supported by defensive positioning

Gold slipped around 0.3% as higher U.S. yields and a firmer dollar weighed on the metal. However, the downside was limited, with bullion still well supported by safe-haven flows as markets brace for possible volatility following the Fed’s rate announcement.

Fixed-income markets focus on Fed trajectory and leadership signals

U.S. Treasury yields firmed as markets reassessed how quickly the Fed may ease further after an expected rate cut. Investor attention also turned to the upcoming selection of the next Fed Chair, a key factor shaping expectations for the 2026 rate path.

Asian FX under pressure as dollar strengthens; yen stabilizes after recent shocks

Emerging Asian currencies weakened against the dollar as risk appetite faded. The Japanese yen stabilized following earlier volatility linked to earthquake-related disruptions, although sentiment remained cautious as investors monitored regional developments.

Market breadth remains narrow as investors adopt selective positioning

Despite minor inflows into risk assets, overall participation stayed thin. Institutional investors continued to favor defensive allocations and selective sector exposures, reflecting elevated uncertainty in global macro conditions.

Upcoming News

Global markets enter Wednesday in a heightened state of anticipation as investors brace for tomorrow’s series of major central-bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England. With Tuesday’s U.S. CPI confirming a continued disinflation trend — broadly reinforcing expectations for a 2026 easing cycle — market focus now shifts to final positioning ahead of the policy announcements. Bond markets remain stable, the U.S. dollar stays subdued, and global equities firm modestly as traders digest the implications of a softer inflation backdrop.

For today, the economic calendar is relatively light, but several mid-tier indicators across the G7 will help refine views on labour conditions, economic momentum, and the underlying strength of domestic demand.

In the United States, no top-tier data is scheduled, leaving markets in pre-FOMC holding mode. Volatility may remain suppressed until the Fed decision, with traders reluctant to take directional positions ahead of the updated dot plot and Chair Powell’s guidance.

Across Europe, attention turns to U.K. GDP (Oct) and Industrial & Manufacturing Production, which provide a crucial read on the U.K.’s near-term growth trajectory. Today’s figures will help markets gauge whether the BoE can align more closely with the global easing narrative or whether sticky domestic inflation will delay policy shifts. In the Eurozone, updates to Germany’s inflation components and industrial sentiment offer additional colour ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

In the Asia–Pacific region, the focus falls on China’s CPI & PPI (Nov). With China facing persistent deflationary pressure through 2025, today’s numbers will be key in assessing whether Beijing’s support measures are gaining traction. A weaker-than-expected CPI/PPI set could reinforce expectations of further targeted stimulus. Meanwhile, Japan and Australia have a lighter calendar, keeping their markets reactive to global sentiment ahead of the central-bank trifecta.

 

Region / Country Event / Indicator Expected Impact
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GDP (Oct) 🔴 High — key growth signal ahead of BoE decision
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Industrial & Manufacturing Production (Oct) 🟠 Medium — confirms underlying activity momentum
🇨🇳 China CPI & PPI (Nov) 🔴 High — crucial for assessing deflationary pressures
🇪🇺 Eurozone German Inflation Component Updates 🟠 Medium — additional context for ECB’s policy tone
🇺🇸 United States No major scheduled data 🟡 Low — markets in pre-FOMC wait mode
🇯🇵 Japan No major scheduled data 🟡 Low
🇦🇺 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec) 🟠 Medium — sentiment gauge for RBA expectations
🌍 Global ECB & BoE Speeches (Fed blackout continues) 🔴 High — tone-setting before Thursday’s decisions

 

Snapshot: G7 – Index (NQ + ES + DJ) – Gold – (BTC + ETH)

G7 FX

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed to 99.242 (+0.15%), supported by cautious positioning ahead of U.S. CPI and consumer sentiment data. FX ranges stayed narrow, reflecting low conviction across majors.

Analysis: FX sentiment remained defensive, with USD supported by pre-CPI hedging flows. GBP showed relative strength, while CAD lagged due to weaker oil dynamics. JPY volatility stayed suppressed, reflecting stable rate-differential expectations.

Metals

Gold stabilized while silver rose moderately; copper softened slightly.

Analysis: Metals traded calmly ahead of U.S. inflation data. Gold’s steady bid reflects persistent macro uncertainty, while silver benefited from improving industrial sentiment.

Global Indices

Equities were mixed with a modest tilt upward in U.S. indices, while Europe underperformed slightly.

Analysis: U.S. indices rose marginally as investors positioned for potentially softer CPI. Tech remained resilient. European equities weakened, weighed by slowing industrial data and ECB policy caution. Lower VIX suggests markets expect contained volatility short-term.

Crypto Markets

Crypto outperformed broadly, driven by strong risk appetite within digital assets.

Analysis: Crypto markets decisively risk-on, with ETH leading gains. BTC recaptured 92k, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Altcoins continued to outperform, helped by improved liquidity conditions and rising speculative activity.

Macro Data Snapshot

United States

Japan

United Kingdom

 

This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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