“US Business Is Booming” — Composite PMI Hits a 52-Month High With Selling Prices at a Ten-Month Low, but the Week Still Ends Lower
Data:
Main Theme: “Growth Accelerating, Prices Cooling” — The S&P Global flash composite PMI surged to 56.0 in August, its highest since April 2022, with services at a 20-month high of 56.8 and selling-price inflation falling to a ten-month low. Equities rallied, the Dow added 518 points, gold hit a three-month high and Bitcoin capped its best week in two years — yet all three major indices still finished the week lower.
Friday produced the most constructive economic release of the month, and it arrived in the configuration equity investors most want to see. The composite output index rose to 56.0 from 54.5, a 52-month high, driven by a services reading of 56.8 against a 54.0 consensus — the strongest since December 2024. S&P Global’s chief business economist Chris Williamson wrote that “US business is booming,” with third-quarter survey data pointing to annualised growth approaching 3.0%, up sharply from the 1.5% pace of the second quarter.
The inflation detail was equally encouraging. Average input costs rose at their slowest pace since February, services cost inflation cooled markedly from July’s 14-month high, and selling-price inflation fell to its lowest since last November — a ten-month low in services and a six-month low in manufacturing, with fewer companies reporting a need to pass higher fuel and energy costs through to customers.
Markets responded: the Dow rose 517.80 points (0.98%) to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 gained 0.43% to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.43% to 26,180.45, with the Nasdaq 100 halting a five-day losing run ahead of Nvidia’s results on Wednesday. But all three indices still posted weekly losses of roughly 2%, with the S&P and Nasdaq snapping three-week winning streaks.
Correction to recent editions. I have repeatedly listed July core PCE for 28 August. It is scheduled for Wednesday 26 August, alongside July personal income and spending, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders — and Nvidia’s earnings. That concentrates far more risk into a single session than my earlier calendars implied.
🟩 U.S. Equities | A Strong Friday Inside a Losing Week
| Index | Closing Level | Change | % | Week |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 53,277.01 | 🟩 +517.80 | +0.98% | Lower — worst since mid-July |
| S&P 500 | 7,674.37 | 🟩 +33.21 | +0.43% | ~−2%; snaps a three-week winning streak |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,180.45 | 🟩 +113.28 | +0.43% | ~−2%; snaps a three-week streak |
| Nasdaq 100 | — | 🟩 — | Higher | Halted a five-day losing run into Nvidia |
Leadership was defensive and financial rather than technology. Healthcare drove the Dow, with Merck and Johnson & Johnson leading, alongside Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and American Express. Financials boosted the broader market and materials outperformed, up 2%. Decliners included Amazon, Apple and Boeing.
Crypto-linked equities were the standout: Robinhood jumped almost 14% and Coinbase added 8% as Bitcoin posted a weekly advance of 22%.
The weekly damage was concentrated in exactly the places this publication has been flagging. Per Trading Economics: Intel, AMD and Seagate each finished the week around 10% lower; Meta and Broadcom around 7% lower; and Walmart 10% lower on its rare earnings miss. Chip producers and AI hyperscalers were mixed on Friday but held their sharp weekly losses.
Context from Thursday: the VIX rose 7.5% to 16.01, and volume ran at 9.61 billion shares against a 20-session average of 16.64 billion — thin participation continues to amplify moves in both directions.
📰 Macro | The Flash PMI Is the Story
| Measure | August | Consensus | Read |
| Composite Output Index | 56.0 | ~53.2–54.0 | From 54.5 — highest since April 2022 |
| Services PMI | 56.8 | 54.0 | From 54.6 — highest since December 2024 |
| Manufacturing PMI | 53.2 | 53.9 | From 53.9 — five-month low |
| Manufacturing output index | 51.9 | — | From 53.9 — 13-month low |
| Services hiring | Fastest in 19 months | — | New services business fastest since Dec 2024 |
| Selling-price inflation | Lowest since November | — | Ten-month low in services, six-month low in manufacturing |
| Input costs | Slowest since February | — | Services cost inflation down from July’s 14-month high |
Williamson’s framing is worth quoting because it sets the terms for the coming week: “US business is booming, with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August. The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter.” He added that jobs growth has shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East.
The manufacturing softness has a specific and important explanation. S&P Global attributed it to two things: safety-stock building — which powered goods production in the early months of the war — is now fading; and supply chain delays lengthened again in August to one of the greatest extents in four years, blamed on shipping disruption, tariffs and thin inventories at suppliers. Input buying rose only slightly, the smallest increase this year, and purchases of inputs fell outright for the first time since February.
Williamson’s caveat deserves as much attention as his headline: price pressures remain elevated and are prone to intensifying should there be a renewed jump in energy costs. With Brent near $93 and the diesel crack spread above $100, that is not a hypothetical risk.
🟦 Rates and Currency | The Buyback Effect Has Fully Unwound
The 10-year held near 4.71% and the 30-year near 5.25%, with Treasuries seeing mild losses. Trading Economics made the decisive observation: long-dated Treasury yields were at similar levels to before the Treasury announced its higher bond buyback.
The intervention has therefore been fully retraced within two sessions. The 30-year fell from above 5.33% to 5.184% on Wednesday and is back at 5.25%; the 10-year fell to 4.637% and is back at 4.71%.
The dollar is the more revealing signal. The US Dollar Index fell a further 0.24% to 98.656, and Trading Economics noted the dollar “held its plunge, underscoring the market’s concern over high inflation and uncontrolled deficit spending in a period that already has record corporate debt issuance.” A currency that will not recover after a strong growth print is telling you the concern is fiscal rather than cyclical.
Treasury Secretary Bessent was active on multiple fronts, touting “the toughest sanctions” for Iran, confirming the buyback expansion from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, and discussing currency interventions involving the yen and the peso as well as new fiscal consolidation plans.
🟨 Commodities and Crypto | Gold at a Three-Month High, Bitcoin’s Best Week in Two Years
Gold was the week’s standout in the metals complex. December futures hit $4,569.40 per ounce, the highest since 15 May, with spot trading around $4,585 for a gain of roughly 1.4–1.5%. The contract is on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain — its longest winning streak since October 2025 — and is up nearly 5% this week.
The historical context matters: gold reached record highs near $5,600 earlier this year before retreating and posting its worst quarter since 2013. This is a rebound from a deep drawdown rather than a fresh breakout.
Bitcoin recorded its best week in two years, advancing 22%. It reached as high as $79,455 overnight before settling around $77,000–78,500 — up roughly 18% in two days and above $70,000 for the first time since late May.
Oil notched a weekly gain. WTI traded around $86 and Brent near $93.64 earlier in the session, with the Iran standoff unresolved and Bessent promising tougher sanctions.
🌍 International | Europe Diverges Sharply
| Economy | Composite | Services | Manufacturing |
| United States | 56.0 (from 54.5) | 56.8 (from 54.6) | 53.2 (from 53.9) |
| United Kingdom | 52.5 (f 51.6) | 52.8 (f 51.8) | 51.5 (f 51.5) |
| Germany | 51.0 (from 51.3) | 48.5 (from 49.8) | — |
Germany is the outlier and the warning. Its composite eased to a two-month low, with services falling to 48.5 from 49.8 — a three-month low and back in contraction territory. The UK improved modestly and beat forecasts across the board.
Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300 and South Korea’s Kospi rose, while Australia’s ASX 200, India’s Nifty 50 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell. European markets were mostly higher in early trading.
📌 Reading the Session
- This is the best data combination of the year and it deserves to be recognised as such. Growth accelerating to a 3% annualised pace while selling-price inflation falls to a ten-month low is the textbook soft-landing configuration — and it directly contradicts the consumer weakness of the past fortnight.
- But the manufacturing detail undercuts the celebration. Output at a 13-month low, input purchases falling for the first time since February, and supply delays at their worst in four years all point to the war working through the goods economy. Safety-stock building is fading, which means the inventory cushion that has absorbed the Hormuz disruption is being run down.
- The market did not extend the rally, and the reason is visible in bonds and currency. The 10-year is back at 4.71% and the 30-year at 5.25% — exactly where they sat before Wednesday’s intervention — and the dollar held its decline even on booming growth data. That is a market pricing fiscal risk, not growth risk.
Monday is quiet. Then Tuesday brings Consumer Confidence, and Wednesday concentrates July core PCE, Q2 GDP, durable goods and Nvidia into a single session — followed by Jackson Hole from Thursday.
Companies
Theme: “The Damage Was Done Earlier in the Week” — Friday was a broad rebound, but the weekly scoreboard tells the real story: Intel, AMD and Seagate each fell around 10%, Meta and Broadcom around 7%, and Walmart 10%. Robinhood gained 14% and Coinbase 8% on Bitcoin’s best week in two years, while DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sell rating and a $100 target.
Friday’s gains were led by healthcare, financials and materials — not by the technology complex that has driven this market all year. With the Nasdaq 100 merely halting a five-day losing run rather than recovering it, and with the semiconductor names down roughly 10% on the week, the AI trade enters Nvidia’s report on Wednesday in its weakest position since the spring.
📉 1. The Weekly Scoreboard
The concentration of the damage is the most useful information available going into next week.
| Company | Week | Context |
| Intel (INTC) | ~−10% | $15bn equity raise on 10 August still weighing |
| AMD | ~−10% | Long-duration AI exposure repriced on the term premium |
| Seagate (STX) | ~−10% | Fell 9%+ on Tuesday alone in the memory selloff |
| Meta (META) | ~−7% | Free cash flow question unresolved since 29 July |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | ~−7% | Fell below $400 on AI expansion financing concerns |
| Walmart (WMT) | ~−10% | −9.2% Thursday on the comparable sales miss |
These are not company-specific stories — they are one story. Every name on that list is either a long-duration AI asset repriced by the global term-premium move, or a company whose capital expenditure is being financed into a rising rate environment. The exception is Walmart, whose problem is the consumer.
🏥 2. Friday’s Leadership Was Defensive
The Dow’s 518-point gain was supported by healthcare stocks such as Merck and Johnson & Johnson, with Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and American Express also among the leaders. Financials boosted the broader market and materials rose 2%.
Amazon, Apple and Boeing were among the decliners.
This composition matters. A 518-point Dow rally led by pharmaceuticals, banks and materials, on a day when the composite PMI hit a 52-month high, is a cyclical-value rotation rather than a growth recovery. Financials benefit from a steep curve; materials benefit from the reflation implied by 3% annualised growth; healthcare is defensive. None of that is the AI trade.
₿ 3. Crypto Equities Have the Week’s Best Move
Robinhood jumped almost 14% and Coinbase added 8% as Bitcoin posted a weekly advance of 22% — its best week in two years.
The move has a specific catalyst chain: Trump urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act and indicated CFTC Chair Michael Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid to the US, which triggered short liquidations into a market that had been capped below $64,000 for months. Bitcoin reached $79,455 overnight before settling around $77,000–78,500.
But the cross-asset context is the more interesting reading. Bitcoin’s 22% week coincided with gold’s fifth consecutive weekly gain to a three-month high, the dollar index falling to 98.656 and holding its decline, and US federal debt passing $40 trillion. Regulatory optimism explains the timing; the debasement trade explains the magnitude. Both assets are being bought for the same reason the long end will not rally.
🚀 4. SpaceX Draws a Sell Rating
SpaceX traded around $135.42 in premarket, up 1.1%, as investors digested the week’s 319-million-share lockup expiration.
DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, warning of a severe “crash risk in the valuation orbit,” per Barron’s.
The context for that call: SpaceX listed on 12 June at $135, peaked at $225.64 on 16 June, fell to an all-time low of $108.27 on 12 August after its first public earnings report, and has since recovered to roughly its IPO price. Q2 showed revenue up 92% to $7.81 billion with a $541 million net loss and capital expenditure of $18.37 billion — $15.83 billion of it AI.
Two supply events remain scheduled: further lockup tranches through October, a second large release after Q3 earnings, and the full backstop expiring 8 December 2026. A $100 target from a fresh initiation, against a stock trading at $135 after absorbing 319 million shares, is a meaningful bear case to have on file.
🔧 5. Other Movers
- Advance Auto Parts rose 0.57% after Thursday’s 55% collapse, having reaffirmed full-year 2026 sales, adjusted operating margin, capital expenditure and free cash flow guidance while revising adjusted EPS guidance to reflect higher interest income.
- O-I Glass was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with a $9 target, with the bank noting shares are down 57% year-to-date and look meaningfully oversold at 1x next-twelve-month EBITDA and 4.8x 2027 EBITDA. Citi expects estimates have bottomed after a series of negative revisions.
- OSI Systems reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.78 against $3.77 expected, but revenue of $484.1 million badly missed the $529.7 million consensus, with operating income of $73.9 million against $87.98 million expected. Full-year guidance of $1.875–1.930 billion revenue and $11.13–11.49 adjusted EPS both came in below estimates.
- Invesco is cutting management fees by 20% for investors in one of its funds — a datapoint on continuing fee compression in asset management.
📌 Analyst Take
The most important thing about Friday is what did not happen: the AI complex did not recover. A 52-month high in the composite PMI, services at a 20-month high, hiring at its fastest in 19 months and selling prices at a ten-month low is about as good as a macro print gets — and the Nasdaq 100 merely stopped falling.
That is consistent with the explanation this publication has offered for two weeks. The AI complex is not being repriced on growth; it is being repriced on the discount rate. Good growth data does not fix a term premium problem — and the 10-year at 4.71% and 30-year at 5.25% are precisely where they sat before the Treasury intervened.
Wednesday resolves it, and the concentration of risk is unusual. Nvidia reports alongside July core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, July personal income and spending, and July durable goods orders — all on 26 August. Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, Okta and Williams-Sonoma report the same day.
The template from this reporting season is unambiguous. Nine consecutive AI-adjacent companies beat and fell between late July and 18 August; Analog Devices then beat and rose on a 52% adjusted operating margin, and JPMorgan reiterated its overweight. The differentiator has been margin durability and free cash flow, not revenue. Nvidia enters with the highest expectations in the complex and a semiconductor sector that just fell 10% in a week.
General
Friday, August 21st, 2026: The Best Data of the Year Meets the Worst Bond Market of the Cycle
The S&P Global flash composite PMI came in at 56.0, a 52-month high, with services at 56.8 against a 54.0 consensus, hiring at its fastest in 19 months, and selling-price inflation at a ten-month low. Chris Williamson said the survey points to annualised third-quarter growth approaching 3.0%, against 1.5% in the second quarter. By any conventional reading that is a soft landing arriving in real time.
And the market gained 0.43% on the S&P, finished the week roughly 2% lower, left the 10-year at 4.71% and the 30-year at 5.25%, and let the dollar hold its decline at 98.656. The gap between the quality of the data and the response of asset prices is the single most instructive feature of this period.
- What the PMI Actually Says, and Where It Conflicts
The headline is genuinely excellent and should not be discounted. Growth accelerating for a second consecutive month to the fastest pace since April 2022, with new services business at its strongest since December 2024 and services hiring the best in 19 months, is a broad-based expansion. Williamson explicitly noted employers gaining confidence as concerns fade over tariffs and the Middle East conflict.
The inflation detail is the part that matters most for policy:
- Average input costs across manufacturing and services rose at the slowest pace since February.
- Services cost inflation cooled markedly from July’s 14-month high.
- Factory input-cost inflation moderated for a third consecutive month.
- Selling-price inflation fell to its lowest since last November — a ten-month low in services and a six-month low in manufacturing.
- Fewer companies reported needing to pass higher fuel and energy costs through to customers.
That last point is the most surprising, because it directly contradicts the energy picture. Brent is near $93, the diesel crack spread is above $100, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. If firms have stopped passing energy costs through, either margins are absorbing it or demand will not tolerate the price increases. Neither is durable, and Williamson flagged exactly this: price pressures remain elevated and are prone to intensifying should there be a renewed jump in energy costs.
And the manufacturing detail is a warning rather than a footnote:
| Indicator | Reading | Implication |
| Manufacturing PMI | 53.2, five-month low | Still expanding, but decelerating |
| Manufacturing output | 51.9, 13-month low | Goods production stalling |
| Safety-stock building | Fading | The war-driven inventory cushion is being run down |
| Supplier delivery times | Worst in ~four years | Shipping disruption, tariffs, thin supplier inventories |
| Input buying | Smallest increase this year | Purchases fell outright — first time since February |
This is the Hormuz conflict finally reaching the goods economy. For six months, firms built safety stock and that inventory accumulation flattered manufacturing output. That process has now stopped, purchases of inputs have fallen for the first time since February, and delivery times are at four-year worsts. The services boom is real; the manufacturing story is one of a cushion being exhausted.
- Why Excellent Data Did Not Move the Market
The clearest evidence is in Trading Economics’ observation: long-dated Treasury yields finished Friday at similar levels to before the Treasury announced its higher bond buyback.
The sequence of the week is worth setting out plainly:
| Day | Event | 30-year yield |
| Mon 17 | Empire State 20.6 vs 11.0 expected | 5.311% — multi-decade high |
| Tue 18 | Global long-end repricing: Japan, Germany, France all at multi-decade highs | Above 5.34% |
| Wed 19 | Treasury doubles buybacks to at least $4bn | 5.184% — relief |
| Thu 20 | Walmart misses; federal debt passes $40 trillion | 5.24% — reversing |
| Fri 21 | Composite PMI 56.0, best in 52 months | ~5.25% — unchanged from pre-intervention |
A long end that does not rally on a payroll contraction, does not rally on a benign CPI, does not rally on an official buyback programme, and does not sell off on a booming growth print is not trading the cycle at all. Barclays identified the driver on Monday: the move is about the US fiscal position rather than inflation.
The dollar corroborates it decisively. The US Dollar Index fell a further 0.24% to 98.656 and held its plunge even as the strongest growth data in four years landed. A currency that will not rally on 3% annualised growth is pricing something other than growth — and Trading Economics named it: “the market’s concern over high inflation and uncontrolled deficit spending in a period that already has record corporate debt issuance.”
- Three Assets Are Telling the Same Story
Gold, Bitcoin and the dollar moved together this week in a way that is not coincidental.
- Gold: December futures at $4,569.40, the highest since 15 May, up nearly 5% on the week and heading for a fifth consecutive weekly gain — its longest streak since October 2025.
- Bitcoin: a 22% weekly advance, its best week in two years, reaching $79,455 and above $70,000 for the first time since late May.
- Dollar: index at 98.656, having “held its plunge” through booming growth data.
All three are expressions of the same trade, and it is not a growth trade. Federal debt passed $40 trillion this week. The Treasury intervened in its own bond market and the intervention was retraced in two sessions. Bessent said explicitly that the buybacks were meant “to show that we believe that the yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals” — an official statement that the market is mispricing US debt, which the market immediately declined to accept.
Bitcoin’s regulatory catalyst is real — the Clarity Act push and the Hyperliquid comments triggered short liquidations. But regulatory news explains timing, not magnitude. A 22% week in Bitcoin alongside a five-week winning streak in gold and a dollar that will not recover describes a market seeking stores of value outside the sovereign balance sheet.
For portfolio construction the implication is concrete: duration is not functioning as an equity hedge. It has not rallied once on weak data in four weeks. The assets that have hedged have been gold and, this week, crypto.
- The Two Economies Are Now Three
The divergence this publication has tracked for a fortnight has become more granular after Friday.
| Segment | Evidence | Direction |
| Services | PMI 56.8, 20-month high; hiring best in 19 months; new business best since Dec 2024 | 🟩 Booming |
| Industrial / capital | Philadelphia Fed 47.4, Empire State 20.6 — but PMI output at a 13-month low | 🟨 Peaking |
| Consumer | Walmart comps +2.6% vs 3.8% exp, ticket +1.1%; retail sales −0.6%; sentiment 51.0 | 🟥 Contracting |
The services strength is the new information and it partially rescues the growth outlook. But note the tension: services are booming and hiring strongly, while the largest retailer in the world reports its customers spending 1.1% more per visit against 3.4% inflation. Services employment growth should eventually support consumption — but it has not yet, and real average hourly earnings have been negative for four consecutive months.
The manufacturing reconciliation is also more nuanced than it appeared on Monday and Thursday. The regional Fed surveys — Empire State at 20.6, Philadelphia at 47.4 — are at multi-year highs, but S&P Global’s manufacturing output index is at a 13-month low. The most likely explanation is panel composition: the regional surveys skew toward larger manufacturers benefiting from AI-related capital orders, while S&P Global’s broader panel captures the inventory de-stocking and supply delays affecting the wider goods sector.
- Next Week Is the Densest of the Quarter
Wednesday 26 August concentrates an unusual amount of risk into a single session: July core PCE, July personal income and spending, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders — and Nvidia’s earnings, alongside Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, Okta and Williams-Sonoma.
Then Jackson Hole runs 27–29 August, with Warsh expected to speak. With the Fed having abandoned explicit forward guidance, that address is the only scheduled opportunity to frame the September decision. Markets currently price roughly 70% odds of a hold.
Trading Economics also flags the annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls, which given that May and June were already revised down by a combined 103,000, could materially change the labour market picture.
📊 Global Macro Sentiment Summary — Friday, August 21st, 2026
| Narrative Channel | Core Fundamental Trigger | Net Portfolio Posture |
| Index Structure | Dow +517.80 (+0.98%) to 53,277.01; S&P +0.43% to 7,674.37; Nasdaq +0.43% — all three down ~2% on the week | 🟨 Rebound inside a losing week |
| Growth | Composite PMI 56.0, 52-month high; services 56.8 vs 54.0 exp; Q3 tracking ~3.0% annualised | 🟩 “US business is booming” |
| Prices | Selling-price inflation lowest since November — ten-month low in services, six-month low in manufacturing | 🟩 Soft-landing configuration |
| Manufacturing | PMI 53.2 (five-month low); output 51.9, 13-month low; safety-stock building fading; delivery times worst in ~4 years | 🟨 Cushion exhausting |
| Rates | 10Y ~4.71%, 30Y ~5.25% — back to pre-buyback levels | 🟥 Intervention fully retraced |
| Dollar | DXY 98.656, held its plunge through booming growth data | 🟥 Fiscal concern, not cyclical |
| Gold | December futures $4,569.40, highest since 15 May; fifth straight weekly gain, +5% on the week | 🟩 Debasement bid |
| Bitcoin | +22% on the week — best in two years; reached $79,455; Robinhood +14%, Coinbase +8% | 🟩 Same trade as gold |
| Weekly damage | Intel, AMD, Seagate ~−10%; Meta, Broadcom ~−7%; Walmart −10% | 🟥 AI complex and consumer |
| Europe | UK composite 52.5 beats; Germany services 48.5, back in contraction | 🟨 Divergent |
| Energy | Oil notched a weekly gain; WTI ~$86, Brent ~$93.64; Bessent touts “toughest sanctions” | 🟥 Unresolved |
Compliance and framing notes. The composite PMI consensus varied by source between roughly 53.2 and 54.5 — cite a range. Note that the manufacturing sub-components were materially weaker than the headline: output at a 13-month low and input purchases falling for the first time since February. And attribute the fiscal interpretation of the yield move to Barclays and the dollar interpretation to Trading Economics rather than presenting either as established fact.
Upcoming News
Monday, August 24th, 2026 — Theme: “The Calm Before the Densest Session of the Quarter” — No major data or earnings are scheduled, giving the market a full day to position ahead of a Wednesday that combines July core PCE, Q2 GDP, durable goods and Nvidia’s results, followed immediately by Jackson Hole.
Monday is deliberately quiet, and that makes it useful. The market enters it with the AI complex down roughly 10% on the week, the long end back at pre-intervention levels, gold on a five-week winning streak and Bitcoin fresh off its best week in two years. The positioning decisions made Monday and Tuesday determine how much risk is carried into a session that concentrates four macro releases and the quarter’s largest single-stock event.
🔴 Calendar — Monday, August 24th, 2026
Times in ICT (Hanoi). ET is ICT minus 11 hours.
| Time (ICT) | Currency | Event / Indicator | Consensus | Impact |
| — | USD | No major economic data scheduled | — | 🟢 Low |
| — | USD | No major earnings scheduled | — | 🟢 Low |
| 21:30 | USD | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) (if scheduled) | — | 🟢 Low |
| 22:30 | USD | 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions | — | 🟢 Low |
| Morning | EUR | Germany Ifo Business Climate (Aug) (typically late August) | — | 🟠 Med |
Charles Schwab’s investor calendar lists 24 August as having no major earnings or data expected. Secondary releases may still appear — verify against your own terminal.
- Wednesday Is the Session That Matters
26 August concentrates an unusual amount of risk. Five separate market-moving events land within hours of each other.
| Event | Why it matters | **Context |
| July core PCE | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge | Tracking 0.2–0.3% MoM; Fifth Third flagged portfolio management fees +22.5% YoY in PPI feeding it |
| Q2 GDP, second estimate | Advance reading was 1.5% | S&P Global says Q3 is tracking near 3.0% |
| July personal income and spending | The consumer, directly | After retail sales −0.6% and Walmart’s ticket at +1.1% |
| July durable goods orders | Capital investment | Tests whether the AI capex cycle is still accelerating |
| Nvidia earnings | The quarter’s largest single-stock event | Semis fell ~10% this week; nine AI beats were sold before Analog Devices broke the streak |
The core PCE reading carries a specific known distortion. Fifth Third’s Bill Adams noted after the PPI release that core producer price details “have upward implications for July core PCE,” citing portfolio management services up 6.5% on the month and 22.5% on the year. Those fees rise mechanically with asset prices. A firm core PCE after a benign CPI and a cool PPI would reopen the September debate that this week appeared to close.
And Nvidia arrives with the clearest template of the season. Between late July and 18 August, nine consecutive AI-adjacent companies beat estimates and fell — AMD, SanDisk, Western Digital, Datadog, Cisco, Coherent, Cerebras, Applied Materials and Fabrinet. Analog Devices then beat and rose on a 52% adjusted operating margin. The differentiator has consistently been gross margin durability and free cash flow, not revenue. Bank of America expects a beat and raise and has flagged the Vera Rubin launch and margin resilience against memory cost inflation.
- Jackson Hole Is the Week’s Other Event
The symposium runs 27–29 August, with Chair Warsh expected to speak.
Its significance is elevated by a specific structural fact: Warsh has abandoned explicit forward guidance. The July statement offered none, consistent with his stated aversion to signalling the policy path — which has led analysts to treat every meeting as effectively live. With no guidance in the statement and a 9–3 vote featuring the first three-way same-direction dissent since September 2016 (Logan, Hammack and Kashkari all preferring a hike), this address is the only scheduled opportunity to frame the September decision.
What to listen for:
- Whether he addresses the long end at all. The Treasury intervened in the bond market this week and the intervention was retraced in two sessions. Bessent said the buybacks were partly meant to show yields “don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals” — which works against a Fed content to let markets do part of its tightening.
- How he characterises the services boom against consumer weakness. The composite PMI at 56.0 and Walmart’s ticket at 1.1% cannot both be the basis for policy.
- Any framework language. A first Jackson Hole address as Chair is conventionally used to set analytical framing rather than to signal near-term moves.
- Carry-Over Into the Week
- The flash composite PMI hit 56.0, a 52-month high, with services at 56.8 against 54.0 expected and selling-price inflation at a ten-month low. Manufacturing was the exception at 53.2, with output at a 13-month low and input purchases falling for the first time since February.
- Long-dated yields finished at similar levels to before the Treasury’s buyback announcement — the 10-year near 4.71%, the 30-year near 5.25%. The dollar index fell to 98.656 and held its decline.
- Gold hit $4,569.40, the highest since 15 May, heading for a fifth straight weekly gain. Bitcoin rose 22% on the week, its best in two years, with Robinhood +14% and Coinbase +8%.
- Weekly losses were concentrated: Intel, AMD and Seagate around −10%; Meta and Broadcom around −7%; Walmart −10%.
- Bessent touted “the toughest sanctions” for Iran and discussed currency interventions involving the yen and peso plus new fiscal consolidation plans. US federal debt passed $40 trillion on Thursday.
- The Full Week Ahead
| Date | Data | Earnings |
| Mon 24 | None scheduled | None scheduled |
| Tue 25 | August Consumer Confidence; July new home sales | Bank of Montreal, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, Zoom |
| Wed 26 | July PCE and core PCE; July personal income and spending; Q2 GDP second estimate; July durable orders | Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, Okta, Williams-Sonoma |
| Thu 27 | Jackson Hole begins | Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Burlington, Best Buy, Marvell, Autodesk |
| Fri 28 | Jackson Hole — Warsh expected to speak | — |
| 4 Sept | August payrolls; annual nonfarm payroll revisions | — |
| 15–16 Sept | FOMC decision and dot plot | ~70% probability of a hold priced |
Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence is more important than usual. It is the first read after Walmart’s comparable sales miss and after preliminary Michigan sentiment collapsed to 51.0, with declines concentrated among older, lower-income and non-college households. If confidence deteriorates further, the “trade-down exhausted” reading of Walmart gains substantial support.
Compliance note: Charles Schwab’s calendar lists 24 August as having no major data or earnings; secondary releases may still appear and should be verified. Earnings dates from third-party aggregators can move. And note that my earlier editions incorrectly listed July core PCE for 28 August — it is scheduled for 26 August, the same session as Nvidia.
Snapshot
Friday, August 21st, 2026 — Theme: “Booming Business, Unmoved Bonds” — The composite PMI hit a 52-month high of 56.0 with services at 56.8 and selling-price inflation at a ten-month low. The Dow rose 518 points, gold reached a three-month high and Bitcoin capped its best week in two years — but long yields finished exactly where they sat before the Treasury intervened, and all three indices closed the week lower.
Friday supplied the soft-landing data that has been missing all year: growth accelerating to a 3% annualised pace with prices decelerating. Equities rallied and the Nasdaq 100 halted a five-day losing run ahead of Nvidia. And yet the week still ended roughly 2% lower on all three major indices, the 30-year finished at 5.25%, and the dollar held its decline at 98.656. The market is not trading the economy right now — it is trading the sovereign balance sheet.
🏛️ The Bottom Line
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 517.80 points (0.98%) to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 gained 0.43% to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.43% to 26,180.45, with the Nasdaq 100 halting a five-day drop. All three indices posted weekly losses of roughly 2%, with the S&P and Nasdaq snapping three-week winning streaks.
The S&P Global flash composite PMI rose to 56.0 in August from 54.5 — the highest since April 2022 and a 52-month high — against consensus estimates ranging from 53.2 to 54.5. The flash services PMI jumped to 56.8 from 54.6 against a 54.0 forecast, the strongest since December 2024, while the manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 from 53.9, a five-month low, with the manufacturing output index at 51.9, a 13-month low.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “US business is booming, with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter… The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter.” He noted jobs growth has shown a welcome revival, with services hiring the fastest in 19 months and new services business the strongest since December 2024.
The inflation detail was the best of the year. Average input costs rose at the slowest pace since February; services cost inflation cooled markedly from July’s 14-month high; factory input-cost inflation moderated for a third consecutive month; and selling-price inflation fell to its lowest since last November — a ten-month low in services and a six-month low in manufacturing, with fewer companies reporting a need to pass higher fuel and energy costs to customers. Williamson cautioned that price pressures remain elevated and prone to intensifying should energy costs jump again.
The manufacturing weakness was attributed to fading safety-stock building and to supplier delivery times lengthening to one of the greatest extents in four years, blamed on shipping disruption, tariffs and thin supplier inventories. Input buying rose only slightly, the smallest increase this year, and purchases of inputs fell outright for the first time since February.
Rates barely moved. The 10-year held near 4.71% and the 30-year near 5.25%, with Treasuries seeing mild losses — leaving long-dated yields at similar levels to before the Treasury announced its expanded bond buyback. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% to 98.656 and held its plunge, which Trading Economics attributed to concern over high inflation and uncontrolled deficit spending in a period of record corporate debt issuance.
Gold and crypto were the week’s winners. December gold futures hit $4,569.40 per ounce, the highest since 15 May, with spot around $4,585 (+1.4–1.5%) — a fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since October 2025, and up nearly 5% on the week. Bitcoin posted a 22% weekly advance, its best week in two years, reaching $79,455 overnight before settling around $77,000–78,500. Robinhood jumped almost 14% and Coinbase added 8%.
Sector leadership was defensive and financial: healthcare led the Dow with Merck and Johnson & Johnson, alongside Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and American Express; materials rose 2%. Amazon, Apple and Boeing declined. On the week: Intel, AMD and Seagate each fell around 10%; Meta and Broadcom around 7%; Walmart 10%.
Oil notched a weekly gain, with WTI around $86 and Brent near $93.64 earlier in the session, as Treasury Secretary Bessent touted “the toughest sanctions” for Iran and discussed currency interventions involving the yen and peso plus new fiscal consolidation plans. DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sell rating and a $100 target, warning of severe “crash risk in the valuation orbit.”
📉 Reference Levels for the Monday Open (August 24th)
Derived from recent session closes and range extremes — not vendor-published levels. Verify against your own charts.
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Operational Bias |
| S&P 500 | 7,641 → 7,600 | 7,707 → 7,798.99 (record) | 🟨 Rebounded, week still lower |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,067 → 26,000 | 26,331 → 26,803 | 🟨 Five-day drop halted |
| Dow Jones | 52,759 → 52,485 | 53,463 → 54,349 | 🟩 +518 points |
| US 30Y Yield | 5.18% | 5.25% → 5.33% | 🟥 Back to pre-buyback |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.637% | 4.71% → 4.73% | 🟥 Unmoved by strong data |
| US Dollar Index | 98.00 | 99.50 → 100 | 🟥 Held its plunge |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,450 → $4,400 | $4,569 → $4,700 | 🟩 Fifth weekly gain |
| Bitcoin | $70,000 | $79,455 → $85,000 | 🟩 Best week in two years |
| Brent Crude | $88 → $83.55 | $93.64 → $100 | 🟩 Weekly gain |
| VIX | 14.25 (2026 low) | 16.01 → 20 | ⚠️ Rising from lows |
📊 Market Sentiment & Bias
Growth: 🟩 The best print of the year. Composite PMI at a 52-month high, services at a 20-month high, hiring the fastest in 19 months, and Q3 tracking near 3% annualised against 1.5% in Q2.
Prices: 🟩 Genuinely cooling. Selling-price inflation at a ten-month low, input costs the slowest since February. This is the soft-landing configuration.
Manufacturing: 🟨 The cushion is exhausting. Output at a 13-month low, input purchases falling for the first time since February, delivery times at four-year worsts. The war is reaching the goods economy.
Rates: 🟥 Completely unmoved. Long yields finished exactly where they sat before the Treasury intervened. This is not a cyclical market.
Dollar: 🟥 Would not rally on booming growth. At 98.656 and holding its decline — the clearest confirmation that the concern is fiscal.
Stores of value: 🟩 Working. Gold on a five-week winning streak to a three-month high; Bitcoin’s best week in two years. These have hedged; duration has not.
AI complex: 🟥 Weakest position since spring. Intel, AMD and Seagate down ~10% on the week; Meta and Broadcom ~7%. Nvidia reports Wednesday.
💡 Top Trade Takeaway: “Own the Growth, Hedge the Sovereign”
Focus: Add to services-exposed cyclicals, financials and materials where the PMI strength is genuine. Retain gold and consider crypto exposure as the functioning hedge, since duration is not performing that role. Keep gross exposure moderate into Wednesday’s five-event session. Do not assume good macro data will rescue the AI complex — it did not on Friday.
Logic. Friday delivered the configuration every equity investor claims to want. Growth accelerated to a 52-month high with the composite PMI at 56.0 and services at 56.8, hiring rose at the fastest pace in 19 months, and selling-price inflation fell to a ten-month low. S&P Global’s Williamson called it booming and put third-quarter growth near 3% annualised against 1.5% in the second quarter. The S&P gained 0.43% and finished the week 2% lower.
The explanation is in bonds and currency, and it is now unambiguous. Long-dated yields finished the week at the same levels they held before the Treasury announced its expanded buyback — meaning an official intervention in the government’s own bond market was fully retraced in two sessions, on a week when federal debt passed $40 trillion. And the dollar index fell to 98.656 and held its decline through the strongest growth data in four years. Trading Economics named the driver: concern over high inflation and uncontrolled deficit spending amid record corporate debt issuance. Barclays reached the same conclusion on Monday — the yield move is about the fiscal position, not inflation.
That is why gold and Bitcoin were the week’s best performers. Gold at $4,569.40, the highest since 15 May, on a fifth consecutive weekly gain; Bitcoin up 22%, its best week in two years. The Clarity Act push explains Bitcoin’s timing; it does not explain a simultaneous five-week gold streak and a dollar that will not recover. These are the assets working as hedges while duration does not — and that has direct implications for how you construct a defensive allocation right now.
Two cautions on the PMI itself before extrapolating. First, manufacturing output fell to a 13-month low with input purchases declining for the first time since February and delivery times at four-year worsts — the safety-stock cushion that absorbed six months of Hormuz disruption is being run down. Second, fewer firms reported passing energy costs to customers with Brent near $93 and the diesel crack above $100. Either margins are absorbing that or demand cannot take the increases; Williamson explicitly warned price pressures could reintensify on any renewed energy jump.
Calendar discipline: Monday 24 August is quiet; Consumer Confidence and new home sales Tuesday 25 — the first read after Walmart’s miss; Wednesday 26 August concentrates July core PCE, Q2 GDP second estimate, personal income and spending, durable goods orders and Nvidia’s earnings in a single session; Jackson Hole 27–29 August with Warsh expected to speak — the only scheduled chance to frame September; August payrolls plus annual nonfarm payroll revisions on 4 September; FOMC 15–16 September with roughly 70% odds of a hold priced.
The report belongs to The Concept Trading and Van Hung Nguyen
