Payrolls Go Negative, the Hike Trade Collapses and the S&P Sets a Record — Gold Adds 7% on the Week
Data:
Main Theme: “The Economy Lost Jobs and Wall Street Threw a Party” — July payrolls contracted by 23,000 against expectations of an 80,000–86,000 gain, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000. September hike odds collapsed from 55% to roughly 42–46%, the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, and gold settled at a seven-week high after its best week in more than six months.
Friday inverted the entire framework of the previous fortnight. For a month the market has been pricing the risk of a Fed hike — three FOMC members dissented in favour of one on 29 July, and odds peaked near 65% on Tuesday. July nonfarm payrolls then fell by 23,000, the first monthly decline since February, against a consensus of +80,000 to +86,000. The revisions were worse than the headline: May and June were cut by a combined 103,000, leaving the trailing twelve-month average of job creation at roughly 34,000 a month. Average hourly earnings growth slipped to 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021.
The equity response was immediate and one-directional: S&P 500 +0.62% to a record 7,757.64, Nasdaq +1.30% to 26,690.62, Dow +0.28% to 54,036.93 — the S&P’s best week since April. Gold settled up $100.10 at $4,399.70 and silver gained 3.07% to $63.50, both on falling real yields and a two-week low in the dollar.
🟩 U.S. Equities | A Record on Bad News
| Index | Closing Level | Net Points Change | % | Session Stance |
| S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | 🟩 +47.68 | +0.62% | Record close; best week since April |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,690.62 | 🟩 +342.27 | +1.30% | Led — the rate-sensitive growth trade |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 54,036.93 | 🟩 +151.83 | +0.28% | Lagged; still below Wednesday’s record |
| VIX | 16.50 | — | — | Complacent, but not extreme |
The logic was pure duration. A weakening labour market means a Fed that stays on hold — or eventually eases — which lifts the discount rate applied to long-duration growth assets. The Nasdaq’s 1.30% gain against the Dow’s 0.28% is that trade in its cleanest form.
The week’s biggest single-stock story had nothing to do with payrolls. Coherent rallied 16.4% on Friday in a sixth consecutive advance, taking its weekly gain to roughly 47%, after Reuters reported the administration is drafting a ban on imports of Chinese data-centre components. JPMorgan raised its target to $435 from $380. Peers moved with it: Applied Optoelectronics +11.6%, Lumentum +6%, Marvell +3% — all cited by Bank of America as beneficiaries. Coherent does not report until 12 August, so this is entirely a policy trade.
SpaceX gained 12% on Friday, a day after its lockup expired, as investors absorbed the newly available supply rather than fleeing it — a nearly 19% advance on the week. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $160 target.
Other notable movers: Doximity +78% on raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance; Twilio +31% on guidance above consensus; Figs +29%; Halozyme +16.9% on 47.7% revenue growth and a raised outlook; Instacart +12–16% on a Q3 gross transaction value forecast above estimates. On the downside, The Trade Desk cratered 21% — the index’s worst performer — on Q2 revenue of $715.06 million missing by 4.9% and EPS of $0.34 coming in 8.1% below consensus. Under Armour fell more than 3% on cut revenue guidance; Sezzle −22%.
The energy complex was the week’s clear loser. The S&P 500 Energy sector fell more than 2% over the week, with Chevron down nearly 5%, ExxonMobil off more than 1%, EOG Resources down more than 8% and Diamondback about 7% lower.
📰 The Jobs Report in Detail
| Measure | July 2026 | Consensus | Read |
| Nonfarm payrolls | −23,000 | +80,000 to +86,000 | First decline since February |
| June (revised) | +20,000 | was +57,000 | — |
| May + June revisions | −103,000 combined | — | Trailing 12-month average now ~34,000/month |
| Private payrolls | +30,000 | — | Positive, but barely |
| Government payrolls | −53,000 | — | The entire headline decline |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% (unchanged) | Fell for the wrong reason |
| Participation rate | 61.4% | ~61.6% | Down from 61.5% |
| Employment-population ratio | 58.9% | — | Little changed |
| Average hourly earnings (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.5% | Lowest since May 2021; +2 cents on the month |
Three things make this report more consequential than the headline suggests.
- The unemployment rate fell for the wrong reason. At 4.1% it looks healthy, but it declined because participation dropped to 61.4% — fewer people counted as looking for work. The employment level in 2026 has now fallen by 833,000.
- The revisions reframe the trend, not just the month. A twelve-month average of roughly 34,000 jobs per month means the labour market was materially weaker than the official data showed all year. July’s contraction confirmed a trend rather than interrupting one.
- Wage growth broke lower. At 3.2%, average hourly earnings are now below the 3.4% compensation figure in the Q2 ECI and, combined with Thursday’s productivity print of 1.4%, complete the disinflation arithmetic. This is the second consecutive session of data undermining the hawkish case.
Composition detail: the 53,000 decline in government jobs drove the headline, with additional softness in retail and leisure and hospitality, and slower-than-usual growth in healthcare, which added 22,000. Long-term unemployed stood at 1.8 million, or 25.5% of all unemployed; permanent job losers were little changed at 1.7 million.
🟦 Rates | The Hike Trade Unwinds
| Instrument | Friday close | Day change | Week change |
| US 2-Year | 4.203% | −4bp | −8.7bp — lowest since 17 July |
| US 10-Year | 4.657% | −1.3bp | −8.6bp |
| US 30-Year | 5.192% | −2bp | — |
| September hike odds | ~42–46% | from ~55% | Peaked near 65% Tuesday |
| October hike odds | >57% | — | Risk deferred, not removed |
The nuance worth holding: the market did not price a cut — it priced a delay. October hike odds above 57% mean traders still think tightening is more likely than not this year; they simply removed September from the table. The 30-year at 5.192% remains close to its 19-year high, which tells you the long-end inflation concern has not been resolved by one weak payroll print.
The dollar index slid to a two-week low. Note the context: the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July in a 9–3 vote — its most divided decision since 2016 — with regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all preferring a 25bp hike, and Chair Warsh explicitly declining to reissue forward guidance.
🟨 Commodities | Precious Metals Have Their Best Week in Months
The metals move was the largest cross-asset event of the week.
- December gold settled up $100.10 (+2.33%) at $4,399.70/oz — a seven-week high, finishing the week up more than 7%. Over the last seven sessions gold has gained more than 8%.
- September silver settled up $1.89 (+3.07%) at $63.50/oz, up nearly 10% on the week and more than 14% across four sessions. Platinum rose 13% in seven sessions.
- The drivers were mechanical: falling real yields, a dollar at a two-week low, and the removal of the September hike. UBS has published a path toward $5,000 gold by early 2027.
Crude closed the week higher despite falling roughly 8% across it. WTI settled at $78.18, up 89 cents (+1.15%), and Brent at $83.55, up $1.06 (+1.29%), with US–Iran news quiet at the end of the week. Ship traffic through Hormuz was down 33% on Friday versus the prior day, with most vessels using the Iranian route, according to Kpler.
🟥 Asian Bourses | Quiet Ahead of the Print
Asia traded before the payrolls release and was mixed to lower, with China the standout.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): −0.12% to 65,606.71.
- South Korea (KOSPI): −0.60% to 6,258.77 in choppy trade — a third consecutive decline, leaving it roughly where it closed on Monday.
- China (CSI 300): +0.93% to 4,694.44, supported by July exports beating analyst estimates. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.44% late in the session.
- Australia (ASX 200): flat at 9,263.60. Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.4%.
Europe was firmer, with Germany’s DAX up 1.0% in midday trade as the payrolls miss lifted global rate-sensitive assets.
🌍 Weekend Developments | Iran Adds Conditions
The weekend produced simultaneous optimism and new obstacles — the pattern of the entire negotiation.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that Tehran is “very close” to a deal with Oman on managing the Strait — but that an agreement would not be sufficient on its own to reopen the waterway. He stated the reopening is “subject to other conditions,” including the United States making amends for what he described as a violation of the memorandum of understanding agreed between the two countries in June. He singled out Article Five, which called on Iran to “make arrangements” for vessel transits, arguing that Washington undermined Tehran’s management of the strait by seeking to establish its own alternative arrangements.
Both Iran and Oman voiced optimism that an agreement on navigation is close. The structure under discussion routes inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters.
But the Fars draft plan remains on the table, under Iranian parliamentary review, with its ban on US and Israeli vessels, compensation requirements for other nations, and 20%-of-cargo-value penalties. Energy analysts warned that oil and gas prices are likely to remain elevated until the strait is actually passable, even as Saudi Arabia and the UAE expand alternative export routes.
📌 Reading the Week
- The policy debate has flipped completely in five sessions. On Monday the market priced a 65% chance of a September hike. It now prices 42–46%, with the risk pushed to October. Two data points did it: Thursday’s productivity at 1.4% with unit labour costs at 1.3%, and Friday’s payroll contraction with wage growth at 3.2%.
- The equity rally is now built on weak growth, which is a less stable foundation than the oil-driven rally it replaced. A market that rises because the economy is deteriorating requires the deterioration to stay mild. If the labour data keeps weakening, the “Fed on hold” trade becomes a growth-scare trade.
- Wednesday’s CPI is the test. July’s print captures an oil round trip from roughly $81 to $100 and back, which makes it unusually noisy. Consensus looks for headline +0.2% month-on-month with core near +0.3%.
Companies
Theme: “Policy Beats Earnings” — Coherent gained 47% in a week without reporting anything, on a Reuters story about Chinese component import restrictions. The Trade Desk fell 21% on a 4.9% revenue miss. And SpaceX rose 12% the day its lockup expired, confounding a market that had positioned for the opposite.
Friday closed a week in which the largest single-stock moves came from policy leaks and supply technicals rather than from results. With 87% of S&P 500 reporters having beaten estimates, earnings have stopped differentiating. What moved stocks instead was a draft trade restriction, an insider lockup, and a labour market print that repriced duration across the entire index.
💡 1. Coherent: A 47% Week Without an Earnings Report
Coherent (COHR) rose 16.4% on Friday in a sixth consecutive advance, closing the week up roughly 47%. The company does not report until 12 August — this is entirely a policy trade.
The catalyst: Reuters reported that the administration is drafting a ban on imports of Chinese data-centre components. Bank of America named Coherent, Lumentum and Marvell as the principal domestic beneficiaries, and the group moved together: Applied Optoelectronics +11.6% (helped by its own earnings beat), Lumentum +6%, Marvell +3%. JPMorgan lifted its Coherent target to $435 from $380, maintaining Overweight.
Why this matters beyond one name. The AI supply chain has spent 2026 being repriced on demand — hyperscaler capex, memory scarcity, backlog disclosure. This is the first large move driven by supply-side industrial policy. If import restrictions on Chinese data-centre components proceed, the beneficiaries are domestic optical networking and interconnect suppliers, a segment that has been a secondary consideration in most AI portfolios. The risk is symmetrical: a 47% weekly move on a draft policy is exposed if the proposal is diluted or abandoned, and Coherent now reports into that positioning on 12 August.
🛰️ 2. SpaceX: The Lockup That Didn’t Break It
SpaceX (SPCX) gained 12% on Friday, the day after its first lockup expired, finishing the week up nearly 19%.
This confounded the consensus expectation. Up to 911.5 million insider shares became eligible against a public float below 280.1 million — a supply event roughly three times the free float. Short sellers had positioned ahead of it, and venture investor Paul Kedrosky had argued that many holders would be forced sellers. Instead, investors absorbed the newly available shares. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $160 target.
The context makes the move more striking. SPCX closed Wednesday at $108.27, an all-time low, down more than 13% after its first public earnings report — roughly 49% below its 16 June peak of $225.64 and well below the $135 IPO price. The bounce from that base is a positioning reversal rather than a fundamental re-rating.
What has not changed: capex of $18.37 billion in the quarter with $15.83 billion of it AI, a $541 million net loss, and further lockup tranches through October, a second large release after Q3 earnings, and a full backstop expiring 8 December 2026. One week of absorption does not settle a multi-month supply schedule.
📉 3. The Trade Desk: The Week’s Worst Performer
The Trade Desk (TTD) fell 21%, the worst performer in the S&P 500, after Q2 revenue of $715.06 million missed by 4.9% and EPS of $0.34 came in 8.1% below consensus.
This is the one large decline of the week that was a genuine miss rather than a positioning unwind. The read-through is to the programmatic advertising complex, which sits downstream of consumer demand — and lands in the same week that payrolls contracted, retail employment softened and average hourly earnings growth slipped to 3.2%. Advertising budgets are a coincident indicator of corporate confidence; a miss of this size warrants attention beyond the single name.
⛽ 4. Energy: The Week’s Structural Loser
The S&P 500 Energy sector fell more than 2% across the week as crude declined roughly 8% from Monday’s open despite Friday’s bounce.
| Company | Weekly move | Comment |
| EOG Resources | −8%+ | Independent producers hit hardest |
| Diamondback Energy | ~−7% | Reported into the crude decline |
| Chevron | ~−5% | Largest megacap energy decline |
| ExxonMobil | −1%+ | Better insulated by downstream mix |
The refining position flagged repeatedly in this publication has now partially unwound. PBF, Delek, Par Pacific and HF Sinclair set record highs on 30 July on crack spreads that existed only because the Strait was closed; the sector has since given back ground as roughly $11 came out of Brent between Monday and Wednesday. The position is not resolved — Friday’s rebound and the weekend’s Iranian conditions mean the trade is still live in both directions.
📋 5. The Rest of Friday’s Board
Gainers:
- Doximity (DOCS) +78% after raising its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast — the largest single-day move of the week.
- Twilio (TWLO) +31% on guidance of adjusted EPS $1.42–1.47 on revenue of $1.51–1.52 billion, against LSEG consensus of $1.39 and $1.46 billion.
- Figs (FIGS) +29% on a Q2 beat and raised full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance.
- Halozyme (HALO) +16.9% on 47.7% revenue growth to $481 million and a 2026 outlook lifted to $1.835–1.91 billion.
- Instacart (CART) +12–16% on a Q3 gross transaction value forecast above consensus, benefiting from consumers seeking value. BNP Paribas upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a $56 target.
- Gold and silver miners rallied broadly with bullion having its best week in more than six months.
Decliners:
- Sezzle (SEZL) −22% as analysts looked past the reported figures.
- Under Armour (UAA) −3%+ after cutting fiscal-year revenue guidance to a mid-single-digit decline from a slight decline, citing softer demand in North America and Asia-Pacific.
- DraftKings (DKNG) −3.6% in premarket following Thursday’s revenue and EBITDA miss.
Notable analyst actions: Etsy upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan (target $100 from $85); Roche upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley (target $63 from $46); Quanta Services raised to Overweight at KeyBanc with an $807 target; HubSpot cut to Market Perform at BMO.
📊 6. Earnings Season: Effectively Over as a Driver
Of the S&P 500 companies reported through Thursday, 87% beat estimates against 82% a year ago, with the average beat at 14% and average year-over-year earnings growth of 25% versus 14% last year. These are exceptional numbers, and they have stopped mattering at the index level.
The pattern established over the week is now the operative rule: stocks entering their print with outsized year-to-date gains were sold on good news — AMD (+140% YTD) −8%; SanDisk (+400%) −10%; Western Digital (+220%) −10%; Datadog (nearly doubled) −17% on a beat-and-raise. Stocks entering from depressed positions were bought — Palantir (−29% YTD) +29.45%; Disney (−12%) +3.83%; Airbnb +7–9%; Cloudflare +16–17%.
📌 Analyst Take
The instructive feature of this week is how little of the largest moves came from fundamentals. Coherent gained 47% on a draft policy it has no control over. SpaceX gained 19% on the absorption of a supply event. The whole index re-rated on a labour statistic. Earnings — which were excellent — were the least important input.
That has a practical consequence for the coming week: the calendar, not the tape, sets the risk. Wednesday’s CPI, Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s retail sales will determine whether the newly dovish framing survives. Three company events sit inside that: CoreWeave and Super Micro on 11 August (late-cycle AI infrastructure), Coherent and Cisco on 12 August (the optical policy trade meets its own numbers), and Applied Materials plus SanDisk’s Investor Day on 13 August — the latter addressing fiscal 2027 supply, contract conversion and price floors, which is the single most important scheduled event for the memory thesis.
General
Friday 7th – Sunday 9th August 2026: The Narrative Flipped in Five Sessions
On Monday the market priced a 65% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates in September. By Friday’s close that was 42–46%, and the S&P 500 had set a record high. Nothing about the inflation problem was resolved in between. What changed is that two consecutive data releases removed the justification for tightening: Thursday’s productivity at 1.4% with unit labour costs at 1.3%, and Friday’s payroll contraction of 23,000 with wage growth falling to 3.2%.
This is a genuine regime change in market pricing, and it deserves to be understood precisely — because the market did not price rate cuts. It priced a delay. October hike odds still sit above 57%, and the 30-year Treasury remains near a 19-year high at 5.192%.
- Why the Revisions Matter More Than the Headline
The −23,000 print is the number everyone will quote. The number that should change forecasts is the revision: May and June cut by a combined 103,000, taking the trailing twelve-month average of job creation to roughly 34,000 a month.
This reframes the entire year. The prevailing view through the spring was that the labour market had recovered from a moribund 2025 — May printed +172,000 before being cut to +129,000, June printed +57,000 before being cut to +20,000. The strength that justified three FOMC dissents in favour of a hike partly did not exist. July’s contraction did not interrupt a strong trend; it confirmed a weak one that the official data had been overstating.
The unemployment rate is the least reliable indicator in this report. At 4.1% it fell, but participation dropped to 61.4% and the employment level has declined by 833,000 in 2026. A jobless rate falling because people stop looking for work is not a sign of tightness. This is precisely the mechanism Citigroup flagged in making its out-of-consensus call for three rate cuts between now and January 2027, with unemployment rising above 4.5% within months.
- The Disinflation Case Is Now Complete — On the Cost Side
Two sessions assembled the full argument that wage pressure is not becoming price pressure:
| Input | Latest | Implication |
| Q2 productivity | +1.4% (vs +0.6% exp) | Output per hour rising |
| Q2 unit labour costs | +1.3% (vs +2.1% exp) | Consistent with ~2% inflation |
| Average hourly earnings | 3.2% YoY (vs 3.5% exp) | Lowest since May 2021 |
| Q2 Employment Cost Index | +0.9%; comp 3.4% YoY | Now being absorbed by productivity |
| Challenger job cuts (Jul) | 33,429 — fewest in two years | No layoff spiral |
| Jobless claims | 199,000 | Layoffs still historically low |
What this does not address is the goods and services price channel. ISM Services prices hit 70.3 on Wednesday with a twelve-month average at the highest since April 2023. Core PCE is at 3.3%. Fed Governor Cook noted in mid-July that rising core goods prices underscore that the acceleration in inflation is not only an energy price story — and that channel is untouched by a weak payroll print.
Which is why Wednesday’s CPI is the pivot. Consensus looks for headline +0.2% month-on-month with core near +0.3%. The complication: July captures a round trip in crude from roughly $81 to $100 and back, which makes both the headline and the pass-through into core services genuinely unpredictable. A hot print would put the September hike back on the table within hours.
- The Composition of the Rally Has Changed
This week’s advance rests on a different foundation from last week’s, and the difference is not academic.
| Period | Rally driver | Stability |
| 3–4 August | Oil falling $11 on Hormuz optimism → lower inflation → lower yields | Removed by Iranian conditions |
| 5–6 August | Non-AI earnings (Disney, Lilly, Amgen); productivity surprise | Durable but narrow |
| 7 August | Weak labour market → Fed on hold → duration re-rating | Requires deterioration to stay mild |
A rally built on economic weakness is self-limiting. It works while the data is soft enough to remove tightening but not soft enough to threaten earnings. The threshold is not far away: a twelve-month job creation average of 34,000 is close to the level at which the unemployment rate starts rising mechanically. The Trade Desk’s 21% decline on an advertising revenue miss, in the same week, is the first visible crack in that logic.
The market has also become notably complacent about this: the VIX closed at 16.50 with the S&P at a record, going into a CPI print that could reverse the entire week’s repricing.
- Precious Metals Are Telling a Different Story
The metals move deserves separate attention because it is not simply a mirror of the equity rally.
December gold settled up $100.10 (+2.33%) at $4,399.70, a seven-week high and up more than 7% on the week — its best in more than six months. Silver gained 3.07% to $63.50, up nearly 10% on the week and more than 14% across four sessions. Platinum rose 13% in seven sessions.
The mechanical explanation is real: falling nominal yields, a dollar at a two-week low, and the removal of a September hike all support non-yielding assets. But the magnitude exceeds what those inputs justify. Gold has risen more than 8% in seven sessions in a week when equities also set records — a combination that usually signals a bid for real assets rather than a simple risk rotation. UBS now publishes a path to $5,000 by early 2027.
The interpretation worth offering clients: the metals are pricing the possibility that the Fed ends up unable to tighten into an inflation problem it has not solved, because the labour market will not tolerate it. That is a different, and more uncomfortable, thesis than “disinflation is winning” — and it is consistent with a 30-year yield still near a 19-year high.
- Hormuz: Optimism and New Conditions, Simultaneously
The weekend produced the negotiation’s characteristic pattern — progress and new obstacles announced together.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Saturday that Tehran is “very close” to an agreement with Oman on managing the Strait, but that reopening is “subject to other conditions” — specifically, the United States making amends for what he characterised as a violation of Article Five of the June memorandum of understanding, which called on Iran to “make arrangements” for vessel transits. His argument is that Washington undermined Tehran’s management by pursuing its own alternative arrangements.
Set against that, the Fars draft plan published Thursday remains under Iranian parliamentary review: a ban on US and Israeli vessels, other nations that have “harmed Iran” barred until compensation is paid, and penalties equal to 20% of cargo value. Ship traffic through Hormuz fell 33% on Friday alone, with most vessels using the Iranian route.
The structural read: the framework under discussion — inbound traffic through Iranian waters, outbound through Omani waters — is an accommodation of Iranian control, not a restoration of international transit. Even a signed deal may deliver less normalisation than the $11 Brent decline earlier in the week implied. Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue expanding alternative export routes, which is the more durable bearish force for crude regardless of the diplomacy.
📊 Global Macro Sentiment Summary — 7–9 August 2026
| Narrative Channel | Core Fundamental Trigger | Net Portfolio Posture |
| Index Structure | S&P record 7,757.64 (+0.62%), best week since April; Nasdaq +1.30%; Dow +0.28% | 🟩 Duration re-rating |
| Labour | Payrolls −23,000 vs +80–86k exp; May–June revised −103,000; 12-month average ~34,000 | 🟥 Trend materially weaker |
| Unemployment | 4.1%, but participation fell to 61.4%; employment level −833,000 in 2026 | ⚠️ Fell for the wrong reason |
| Wages | AHE 3.2% YoY — lowest since May 2021; ULC +1.3%; productivity +1.4% | 🟩 Cost disinflation confirmed |
| Fed pricing | September hike odds ~42–46% from ~55%; October still >57% | 🟨 Delayed, not removed |
| Rates | 2Y 4.203% (−8.7bp on week); 10Y 4.657%; 30Y 5.192% — still near 19-year high | 🟨 Front end rallies, long end sticky |
| Precious metals | Gold +7% on the week to $4,399.70; silver +10%; platinum +13% in 7 sessions | ⚠️ Real-asset bid |
| Energy | WTI $78.18 (+1.15% Friday, −8% on week); Brent $83.55; S&P Energy −2% on week | 🔄 Two-way |
| Geopolitics | Araghchi: “very close” but reopening “subject to other conditions”; Fars draft still live | ⚠️ Unresolved |
| Volatility | VIX 16.50 at a record index high, into Wednesday’s CPI | ⚠️ Complacent |
| Earnings | 87% beat rate, 25% average growth — and no longer the marginal driver | 🟨 Neutralised |
Upcoming News
Monday, August 10th, 2026 — Theme: “A Quiet Day Before the Inflation Test” — The macro calendar is nearly empty, which makes Monday a positioning session ahead of Wednesday’s CPI. The market enters at a record high with the September hike trade half-dismantled and the VIX at 16.50.
Monday and Tuesday are the calm portion of an otherwise inflation-heavy week. There is no FOMC meeting until 15–16 September, which means this week’s three inflation and spending releases — CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, retail sales Friday — become the market’s primary instrument for validating the newly dovish framing established by Friday’s payroll contraction. The setup entering the week: S&P 500 at a record 7,757.64, 10-year yield at 4.64%, gold around $4,343–4,400, September hike odds at 42–46%.
🔴 Calendar — Monday, August 10th, 2026
Times in ICT (Hanoi). ET is ICT minus 11 hours.
| Time (ICT) | Currency | Event / Indicator | Consensus | Impact |
| 21:00 | USD | Conference Board Employment Trends Index (July) | — | 🟠 Med |
| During session | USD | Treasury bill auctions | — | 🟢 Low |
| Before open | — | Barrick Mining (B), Ferguson (FERG), monday.com (MNDY) | — | 🟠 Med |
| Before open | — | Camtek (CAMT), CEVA, Dole (DOLE), California Resources (CRC), RadNet (RDNT), Surgery Partners (SGRY), Axsome (AXSM), Sohu (SOHU), International Seaways (INSW) | — | 🟢 Low |
| After close | — | Rocket Lab (RKLB), Hims & Hers (HIMS), Rumble (RUM) | — | 🟠 Med |
- The Only Macro Print: Employment Trends Index
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index is normally ignored. This month it is worth a look, because it aggregates several forward-looking labour components and lands three days after a payroll report whose revisions cut the twelve-month job creation average to roughly 34,000 a month.
The question it partially addresses: was July’s −23,000 an inflection or a data artefact? The composition argued for the latter in part — government payrolls fell 53,000 while private payrolls rose 30,000 — but the downward revisions to May and June argue for the former. A weak ETI would strengthen the case that the softening is broad rather than a public-sector accounting effect.
- Barrick Is the Most Interesting Name on the Board
Barrick Mining (B) reports before the open, into a bullion market that has just had its best week in more than six months.
The backdrop: December gold settled Friday at $4,399.70, up $100.10 (+2.33%) and more than 7% on the week; silver at $63.50, up nearly 10% on the week and 14% across four sessions; platinum up 13% in seven sessions. Gold miners carry operating leverage to the metal price, so a quarter reported at these levels — with realised prices lagging spot — will show margin expansion that the market may extrapolate forward. UBS has published a path to $5,000 gold by early 2027.
Also worth watching: Rocket Lab (RKLB) after the close, in the week after SpaceX rose 12% on its lockup expiry and 19% on the week. The space sector’s public-market comparables have been repriced twice in five sessions; Rocket Lab’s guidance will be read against SpaceX’s $18.37 billion quarterly capex and $100 billion ARR target.
monday.com and Hims & Hers provide consumer-facing and SaaS reads in a week when the Trade Desk’s 21% decline raised questions about advertising and discretionary demand.
- The Week That Matters — 10 to 14 August
| Day | Data | Earnings |
| Mon 10 | Employment Trends Index (July) | Barrick, Ferguson, monday.com; Rocket Lab, Hims & Hers after close |
| Tue 11 | Quiet | CoreWeave, Super Micro, Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, Lumentum (after close) |
| Wed 12 | JULY CPI — headline ~+0.2% MoM, core ~+0.3% | Cisco, Coherent; Cerebras after close |
| Thu 13 | July PPI; initial jobless claims | Applied Materials (call 4:30pm ET); SanDisk Investor Day |
| Fri 14 | July retail sales (June +0.2%); UMich preliminary sentiment | — |
Wednesday’s CPI is the week. Consensus looks for headline +0.2% month-on-month with core around +0.3%. The complication is that July captures a round trip in crude from roughly $81 to $100 and back — the Iran war escalation drove Brent above $100 in late July before this month’s collapse. That makes both the headline and the energy pass-through into core services genuinely difficult to forecast. A hot print puts September back on the table within hours; a soft one likely confirms the record high.
Thursday carries two AI-specific events. Applied Materials is one of 2026’s best-performing semiconductor stocks — which, on this week’s pattern, is precisely the profile that has been sold on good news four times running. And SanDisk’s Investor Day addresses fiscal 2027 supply, contract conversion and price floors: the single most important scheduled catalyst for the memory thesis, given that roughly $2.01 billion of SanDisk’s sequential revenue growth came from pricing rather than volume.
Friday’s retail sales matter more than usual after The Trade Desk’s advertising miss and softness in retail employment within the July jobs report. June spending rose 0.2%, with much of the spring’s increase attributable to higher fuel prices — which have now reversed.
- Carry-Over Positions Into Monday
- Coherent is up roughly 47% on the week on a draft policy, with no earnings until Wednesday. A 47% move on a Reuters report about proposed restrictions on Chinese data-centre components is exposed if the proposal is diluted — and the company now reports into that positioning.
- SpaceX rose 12% Friday and 19% on the week despite its lockup releasing up to 911.5 million shares against a float below 280.1 million. Further tranches continue through October, with a second large release after Q3 earnings and the full backstop on 8 December. One week of absorption does not settle the schedule.
- Energy remains a live two-way trade. Crude fell roughly 8% on the week but rose Friday, and the weekend brought Iranian statements that a deal with Oman would not itself reopen the Strait. Hormuz traffic fell 33% on Friday alone.
- The VIX at 16.50 with the index at a record means positioning is not defensive going into the week’s inflation data.
- The Road to September
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
| 12 Aug | July CPI | Validates or breaks the dovish repricing |
| 13 Aug | July PPI; SanDisk Investor Day | Wholesale pass-through; memory price floors |
| 14 Aug | July retail sales; UMich preliminary | Consumer demand after weak payrolls |
| 19 Aug | July FOMC minutes | Detail on the 9–3 vote and the three dissents |
| 27–29 Aug | Jackson Hole — Warsh’s first as Chair | Framework, after the Fed dropped forward guidance |
| 4 Sept | August jobs report | The confirmation test for July’s contraction |
| 15–16 Sept | FOMC decision and dot plot | Currently ~42–46% priced for a hike |
Snapshot
Friday 7th – Sunday 9th August 2026 — Theme: “Bad News, Record High” — Payrolls contracted by 23,000 with May and June revised down 103,000, wage growth fell to a five-year low, September hike odds collapsed to 42–46%, and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64 with gold up more than 7% on the week.
The week ended with the market’s central assumption inverted. On Tuesday, traders priced a 65% chance of a Fed hike in September. By Friday’s close it was 42–46% — without a single Fed communication. Two data releases did it: Thursday’s productivity at 1.4% with unit labour costs at 1.3%, and Friday’s payroll contraction with average hourly earnings falling to 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. Equities re-rated on duration, precious metals had their best week in more than six months, and the front end of the Treasury curve rallied nearly 9 basis points.
🏛️ The Bottom Line
The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to a record 7,757.64 — its best week since April — with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.30% to 26,690.62 and the Dow adding 151.83 points (+0.28%) to 54,036.93. The VIX closed at 16.50. The Nasdaq’s outperformance against the Dow is the duration trade in its clearest form.
July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against consensus of +80,000 to +86,000 — the first monthly decline since February. June was revised down to +20,000 from +57,000, and May and June together were cut by 103,000, leaving the trailing twelve-month average of job creation at roughly 34,000 a month. Private payrolls rose 30,000 while government payrolls fell 53,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but only because participation dropped to 61.4%; the employment level in 2026 has declined by 833,000. Average hourly earnings rose 2 cents, taking the twelve-month rate to 3.2% against a 3.5% forecast — the lowest since May 2021.
Rates repriced across the curve. The 2-year fell 4bp to 4.203%, its lowest since 17 July and down 8.7bp on the week; the 10-year eased 1.3bp to 4.657%, down 8.6bp on the week; the 30-year slipped 2bp to 5.192%, still near a 19-year high. September hike odds fell to roughly 42–46% from about 55%, while October odds remained above 57% — a delay, not an easing cycle. The dollar index hit a two-week low.
Precious metals were the week’s standout. December gold settled up $100.10 (+2.33%) at $4,399.70/oz, a seven-week high and up more than 7% on the week — its best in over six months. September silver settled up $1.89 (+3.07%) at $63.50, nearly 10% higher on the week and more than 14% across four sessions. Platinum rose 13% in seven sessions. UBS published a path toward $5,000 gold by early 2027.
Crude closed higher on the day but roughly 8% lower on the week. WTI settled at $78.18 (+$0.89, +1.15%) and Brent at $83.55 (+$1.06, +1.29%). Hormuz ship traffic fell 33% on Friday versus the prior day, with most vessels using the Iranian route. The S&P 500 Energy sector fell more than 2% on the week, with EOG down over 8%, Diamondback about 7%, and Chevron nearly 5%.
Single-stock moves were driven by policy and technicals rather than earnings. Coherent rose 16.4% Friday in a sixth straight advance, up roughly 47% on the week, on a Reuters report that the administration is drafting a ban on Chinese data-centre component imports — the company does not report until 12 August. SpaceX gained 12% the day after its lockup expired, up nearly 19% on the week. Doximity +78%, Twilio +31%, Figs +29%, Halozyme +16.9%, Instacart +12–16%. Against that, The Trade Desk cratered 21% — the index’s worst performer — on a 4.9% revenue miss.
Asia traded before the print and was mixed: Nikkei −0.12% to 65,606.71; KOSPI −0.60% to 6,258.77; CSI 300 +0.93% to 4,694.44 on July exports beating estimates; Hang Seng +0.44%; ASX 200 flat at 9,263.60.
Over the weekend, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran is “very close” to a deal with Oman on managing the Strait — but that reopening is “subject to other conditions,” including US amends for an alleged violation of Article Five of the June memorandum of understanding. The restrictive Fars draft plan — banning US and Israeli vessels, requiring compensation from other nations, and imposing penalties of 20% of cargo value — remains under Iranian parliamentary review.
📉 Reference Levels for the Monday Open (August 10th)
Derived from recent session closes and range extremes — not vendor-published levels. Verify against your own charts.
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Operational Bias |
| S&P 500 | 7,750 → 7,700 | Record — no overhead | 🟩 Holding 7,750 keeps the run intact |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,348 → 26,000 | 26,690 → 27,000 | 🟩 Leading on duration |
| Dow Jones | 53,885 → 53,178 | 54,349 → 54,744 (records) | 🟨 Lagging |
| Russell 2000 | 3,003 → 2,946 | — | 🟩 Best index of 2026 |
| US 2Y Yield | 4.15% → 4.10% | 4.27% | 🟩 Front end rallying |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.55% → 4.50% | 4.73% | 🟨 CPI is the trigger |
| US 30Y Yield | 5.10% | 5.25% (19-yr high) | ⚠️ Long end still sticky |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,300 → $4,229 | $4,450 → $4,500 | 🟩 Best week in 6 months |
| Silver (Sep) | $60.00 | $65.00 | 🟩 +14% in four sessions |
| WTI Crude | $75 → $72 | $80.00 → $84.67 | 🔄 Two-way |
| Brent Crude | $80 → $78.77 | $90.12 | 🔄 Two-way |
| VIX | — | 20 | ⚠️ 16.50 is complacent into CPI |
📊 Market Sentiment & Bias
Labour: 🟥 Weaker than anyone thought. The revisions matter more than the print — a twelve-month average of 34,000 means the spring strength that justified three FOMC dissents partly did not exist. The 4.1% unemployment rate is an artefact of falling participation, not a sign of tightness.
Rates: 🟨 A delay, not a pivot. September is largely off the table; October is still priced above 57%. The 30-year near a 19-year high says the long-end inflation concern is unresolved.
Equities: 🟩 Re-rated on duration, 🟨 on a fragile premise. A rally driven by economic weakness works only while the weakness stays mild. The Trade Desk’s 21% fall on an advertising miss is the first visible test of that.
Precious metals: ⚠️ Saying something different. Gold +7% and silver +10% on the week, alongside record equity highs, is a real-asset bid rather than a simple risk rotation — consistent with a Fed that may be unable to tighten into unresolved inflation.
Energy: 🔄 Genuinely two-way. Down 8% on the week, up on Friday, with Iran stating over the weekend that a deal with Oman would not itself reopen the Strait.
Positioning: ⚠️ Not defensive. VIX at 16.50 with the index at a record, going into CPI.
💡 Top Trade Takeaway: “The Repricing Now Needs Inflation to Cooperate”
Focus: Retain the duration-sensitive growth exposure that Friday rewarded, but hedge or size down into Wednesday’s CPI. Keep precious metals exposure — the move has fundamental support beyond momentum. Continue avoiding names with outsized year-to-date gains reporting this week. Treat energy as two-way and unresolved.
Logic. The market has completed a full reversal of its policy assumption in five sessions without any Fed communication, on the strength of two data releases. That repricing is now the consensus position, and it is unhedged — the VIX at 16.50 with the S&P at a record says nobody is paying for protection into a CPI print that captures a crude round trip from $81 to $100 and back. The asymmetry into Wednesday favours caution.
What genuinely improved and should be held: the cost-side disinflation case is now complete. Productivity at 1.4%, unit labour costs at 1.3%, average hourly earnings at 3.2% — a five-year low — and Challenger layoffs at a two-year low together mean wage pressure is not becoming price pressure. That is a durable change in the inflation outlook regardless of what one CPI print does.
What has not improved: ISM Services prices at 70.3 with a twelve-month average at a three-year high, core PCE at 3.3%, and a 30-year Treasury near a 19-year peak. The goods and services price channel is untouched by a weak payroll number, which is precisely why gold rose more than 7% in the same week equities set records.
The exposure requiring the most attention this week is Coherent — up roughly 47% on a draft policy restricting Chinese data-centre component imports, reporting into that positioning on Wednesday. A move of that size on a proposal with no legislative status carries substantial reversal risk, and the same logic extends to Lumentum, Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics.
The reports belong to The Concept Trading and Van Hung Nguyen,
